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Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

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Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#41

Post by goalieca »

screye wrote: post #31
nomilk wrote: post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

Because events never cause wars. Countries want war and then they wait for an inciting event to go in. The US wants a war with Russia without putting boots on the ground. Ukraine was a convieinient excuse. 9/11 triggered a war with random middle eastern countries that the US wanted to invade anyway. If Cuba downed a large cargo ship, then the US will have annexed it before midnight. If China downs one in South China…

> The US wants a war with Russia without putting boots on the ground. Ukraine was a convieinient excuse

If that was true, the us wouldn’t be still dragging their feet two years into the war on arming the Ukrainians with air and long range strike capabilities. It took long enough for Bradley’s and artillery to be delivered.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#42

Post by ra »

nomilk wrote: post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

MH17 was shot down by a Russian anti-aircraft missile, killing all 298 p.o.b. with no consequences for Russia.

Russia has flown Bear nuclear-capable bombers over the UK (actually over land), with no consequences [1].

Russia, Iran, and North Korea all trade arms with each other and supply missiles, drones, and ammunition to the Houthi.

Russia invaded Ukraine and deploy weapons from the above "axis" countries.

I don't think a specific individual trigger event exists for a military response. More typically, the West goes to war when energy security is threatened.

[1] My parents live in Cornwall and witnessed this https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/19/russian-bomb...

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#43

Post by IAmGraydon »

addaon wrote: post #28
elromulous wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a function of how powerful one's adversary is. Russia is a superpower.

> Russia is a superpower. Russia shares some of the land of a previous superpower, and has inherited some of their geriatric weapons of power.

Precisely. The USSR was a superpower. Russia is a joke.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#44

Post by defrost »

monocasa wrote: post #24
nomilk wrote: post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

Intentionally downing drones has typically not been causus belli. Iran downed a US stealth drone intentionally and seemed to have made it out with essentially no consequences. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93U.S._RQ-170_incid...

Other than the US getting called out in front of Russia and China in front of the UN Security Council:

    On 9 December 2011, Iran lodged a formal complaint to the United Nations Security Council over the UAV violating its airspace.

    Iran's U.N. ambassador stated in the letter that "My government emphasizes that this blatant and unprovoked air violation by the United States government is tantamount to an act of hostility against the Islamic Republic of Iran in clear contravention of international law, in particular, the basic tenets of the United Nations Charter."

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#45

Post by 29athrowaway »

SEJeff wrote: post #15
29athrowaway wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like something taken from Team America: World Police or Command & Conquer: Generals.

Except this is real life and not a movie. They’re not cartoon villains. They’re actual real life villains.

It must be some kind of Pizza effect, where they assimilated all the silly depictions of radical groups from parodies. Life imitating art?

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#47

Post by [deleted] »

rayiner wrote: post #11
verelo wrote: post #3

I’m fairly concerned this Red Sea thing can turn into what sets off inflation for real. These routes were major efficiency factors to the economy. If we lose them, there’s nothing but added cost coming for us all, and at the worst time for consumer confidence in central banks ability to manage the situation. Can we just keep our shit together? It’s been a rough decade and it’s only 3 years into the 2020s…

The Houthis official slogan is: “God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam." I’m petty sure they do not give a shit about making consumerism harder for Americans. In fact it’s probably a bonus.

[deleted]

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#49

Post by Joel_Mckay »

nomilk wrote: post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

This book explains when wars serve national policy. For example, authoritarian states who failed to handle the Pandemic would also strongly suggest a tragedy must unfold to retain power.

"The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics" ( 2011, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith )

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

Not a pleasant read, but a well reasoned model of violent human behavior. =)

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#50

Post by TerrifiedMouse »

jmyeet wrote: post #19

Once again we see "blowback" in action. Here's the cycle: 1. A major power backs a side in an internal struggle for their own end. If necessary, a conflict is manufactured by propping up rebels, a coup, etc; 2. The other side, which tends to be the internally popular side, resists. Because of that popular support, they can survive, thrive and grow; 3. Insurgencies are incredibly effective. Counter-insurgencies are in…

> And now the Houthi rebels have become battle-hardened guerillas and insurgents, capable of projecting force into the vital shipping lanes of the Red Sea.

Their ability to attack the red sea has nothing to do with being "battle-hardened". They can only do so because Iran decides to supply them with missiles.

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