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Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

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Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#51

Post by what »

ceejayoz wrote: post #36
mminer237 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crimes had been declining for decades. The last couple years have had pretty significant increases, and violent crime in general is the highest it's been in ten years, for instance: https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/quick-graphics

“Highest in ten years” is still very low on the 70s/80s/90s scale, as the chart in the article readily shows.

So no one is allowed to notice that crime is getting worse until it reaches the same levels as the 70s/80s/90s? Despite rising crime, their perception is wrong because it hasn’t reached historic highs?

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#52

Post by ceejayoz »

what wrote: post #51
ceejayoz wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Highest in ten years” is still very low on the 70s/80s/90s scale, as the chart in the article readily shows.

So no one is allowed to notice that crime is getting worse until it reaches the same levels as the 70s/80s/90s? Despite rising crime, their perception is wrong because it hasn’t reached historic highs?

> So no one is allowed to notice that crime is getting worse... Despite rising crime...

Re-read the headline.

> Despite rising crime, their perception is wrong because it hasn’t reached historic highs?

Yes, American perception of how dangerous society is is quite skewed, and has been for some time. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/20/facts-abo...

We seem the same odd vibes-over-numbers phenomenon in the economy in recent years:

https://twitter.com/M_C_Klein/status/1730718997170344427

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#53

Post by FireBeyond »

gotoeleven wrote: post #32
FireBeyond wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just as there are people who think that Portland (and Seattle) are close to some post apocalyptic wasteland after the BLM protests a few years ago. I've heard non-hyperbolic claims that BLM torched "entire city blocks".

Just like the protests were mostly peaceful, the city blocks were left mostly untorched.

Show one, just one, block in either city that was torched. A single block that was destroyed by arson.

"mostly untorched" is utterly deceptive and misleading rhetoric to push a point.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#54

Post by thereddaikon »

joemazerino wrote: post #26
bozhark wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TikTok + lazy manufacturers. KIA & Hundai knew about the issue well in advance and made the business decision not to react and fix it. Easiest car to steal in a few generations. People that is

It isn't the car manufacturers job to stop kids from being criminals. TikTok you are right on the money though. Greatest CCP psyweapon ever invented.

Its not their job to prevent crime. But it is their job to take reasonable steps to secure their products. What they did is akin to Google not supporting HTTPS for their services and then blaming the users for their data being stolen. People have a reasonable expectation that cars come with immobilizers because its been an industry standard for decades. Its also not something you can easily check and verify yourself.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#55

Post by adrr »

throw0101b wrote: post #45

Ran across an interesting observation a little while ago that while homicides—deaths—have been dropping, that doesn't necessarily mean that 'the streets' have gotten safer: > That's how good trauma surgeons are now. They're looking for solutions [to gun deaths] outside the hospital. > Now, think about the implications of that in a place like Washington, DC. In the last 30 years, the number of homicides in Washington…

https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim...

Cities are safer. Violent crime is down and property crime continues to drop.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#56

Post by BirAdam »

drewcoo wrote: post #7
okasaki wrote: post #4

> Why it matters: The findings appear to be at odds with Americans' perception of crime both in their communities and in the rest of the country. Well, there are other crimes than murder?

News at 11 . . . Americans believe the news.

And oddly, no matter the political bent of viewer or of caster, people seriously shouldn’t believe the press (corporate or otherwise). The corporate press is just a few politically and financially well connected megacorps who have both their own corporate agenda as well as their connections’ agendas. The amateur press is precisely that and therefore shouldn’t be blindly trusted either. Do you trust Comcast to speak honestly about ISPs?

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#57

Post by Swizec »

joemazerino wrote: post #28
Swizec wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking as someone who has lived in the downtown area of a dense US city for the past 8 years, US crime stats and perception are weird. Yes I live in a neighborhood with high crime stats. Even relatively high violent crime stats. But it feels pretty safe regardless. Random violent crime is extremely rare. Mostly what you get are violent disputes between people who know each other. You can literally walk by a drug de…

Do you think it's safe to raise a family where drug deals are happening out in the open?

I'm half a block from an elementary school so how bad can it be? My nearest intersection literally has those crosswalk guards you see in the movies every morning. They always say hi when I run past them.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#59

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

karaterobot wrote: post #8

> "We're using tools like crime-gun intelligence, the ability to trace the gun and the spent shell casing from a crime scene to identify who's that shooter, how many violent crimes have they been involved with," she said in the interview. I don't think that prevents enough crime to account for the drop, though I would believe it helps catch criminals after the fact. I'm basing this on the assumption that the average…

Almost all police activity is there to document crime not to prevent it.

And yes. They’re full of crap here. To the best of my knowledge not once has a recovered shell been matched to the the case casing library system - it was so ineffective that they dropped it after at least a decade of forcing mfgs to supply two shell casings with every handgun made. Shell casings are basically only good for additional evidence, they can’t even be 100% confirmed to the firearm they were shot from. The fact they even mention it is highly suspect in the truthfulness of the claim.

For anyone that believes the stories… she’ll casing almost never have fingerprints on them after being fired. The firing pin indentation is not a scientific match. I can pick up shells and tell you if it was a certain gun, Glocks specifically have blocky firing pins. MP5s have fluted chambers. Extractor marks and ejector dents, etc. But it’s such minor add-on evidence. The reason you might see police marking shells at a crime is for the count of rounds far more than anything else.

Re: Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

#60

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

thereddaikon wrote: post #44
karaterobot wrote: post #8

> "We're using tools like crime-gun intelligence, the ability to trace the gun and the spent shell casing from a crime scene to identify who's that shooter, how many violent crimes have they been involved with," she said in the interview. I don't think that prevents enough crime to account for the drop, though I would believe it helps catch criminals after the fact. I'm basing this on the assumption that the average…

Every serious look into gun forensics I've read indicates that matching a casing or bullet to a specific gun is pseudo-science.

I just wrote about that.

It absolutely is. The worst was when anti-gun groups were pushing “micro-stamping” of firing pins to imprint a number on the primer face. Complete and utter fantasy, easily defeat-able, unenforceable, nonsense. Didn’t stop them from pushing it for at least a decade.

Even the bullet to barrel match of a gun fired in the lab is pretty much BS.

You can tell major aspects like ”the gun this bullet came from had 5R or polygonal rifling” but that is about where it ends in reality. You can prove a bullet didn’t come from some gun, but pretty much never that it did.

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