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Peter Zeihan analysis from a couple weeks ago: https://youtu.be/WJE7g08NldQ
Is it as accurate as his numerous predictions of China and Russia both facing imminent collapse?
Source: used to work in the policy space
101–110 of 219 posts
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Right, and history started 2 months ago. There was never a partner for peace of course, not when we gave chemical weapons to Saddam, not when we invaded and turned the place into a shooting gallery for no reason, not when we rejected the talibans offer to turn over bin laden, not when we let him escape into Pakistan, not when we turned Libya into a failed state, not when we invaded somalia, not when we propped up a d…
You're describing life. This is diplomacy, while we can argue about its effectiveness I'm certain we can agree that it's still better than China, Russia and or Iran. It's just a matter of perspective - the west is the lesser evil here
I'm not certain that the people living there agree. From their perspective they bled, got betrayed, and had their entire region royally fucked over for decades.
To them we are no different from an authoritarian regime. They don't get to vote in our elections.
Maybe if the west simply kept their promises a lot of this could have been avoided. "Diplomacy" is pretty hard now, given that our word isn't worth the paper it's written on.
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It baffles me that they still have a helicopter that's being actively used for piracy. Seems like that should be number one on the target list.
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I'm most interested in knowing how the Houthis seem to know that a ship is Israeli, when the ship is registered in Panama, operated by a Danish shipping line (Maersk), insured by a UK company (Lloyd's), carrying cargo from all over Asia but mainly China and Vietnam, and making multiple stops across the world. Somehow they look at this ship and think "yeah it's Israeli".
It's horseshit. This isn't the 1800s when a ship would be unambiguously English or French.
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> They are targetting Israeli ships No evidence of this discrimination. That’s a big part of the problem.
Nonsense; take them at their word. On October 31 they vowed to attack Israeli targets until the military action in Gaza stops. They later said they would target any ship that was headed to an Israeli port. There have been literally dozens of news articles quoting them. The only reason to not consider it an act of war is to avoid recognizing their legitimacy as a governing force.
Sure. Then they hit a Norwegian tanker carrying biofuel to Italy [1]. Then another Norwegian ship [2].
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/cruise-missile-yem...
[2] https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/politics/uss-carney-red-sea/i...
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Yes, we never had to be involved. In fact, the holocaust started after we declated war, and we kept it a secret that we sunk a japanese submarine that was near Hawaii because it would have tipped off the forces there that they needed to be ready to defend themselves. Pearl harbor was allowed to happen to justify going to war, soldiers and sailors killed for what exactly?
> we never had to be involved [in WWII] Ffs, can we have someone defending Arab interests who doesn’t pivot to de facto defending the literal Nazis?
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> How do they get money for arms? Where do the arms come from? Why is the government unable to exert any realistic control within their own borders In the Houthi's case, they're a clan. The entire clan pitched in because they were persecuted under Saleh - businessmen, service men, low level govenenent officials, etc. Familial and Clan traditons are still a thing.
Middle East politics have always felt beyond my understanding. I know we (as in western countries, specifically the US and the UK, but also others) contributed greatly to this mess (and still do to this day, in multiple ways). That said, at some point, you expect things to normalize, because fundamentally people should be conflict adverse, however, it seems this region has an unusually high rate of conflicts that are…
They happen in every culture or society where family ties matter.
For example, Guangdong's rise in electronics assembly thanks to Cantonese business families in Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore investing in Taiwan and then co-investing in Guangdong.
> it appears Middle Eastern governments have been in power a long time
Most are stable. Aside from Libya, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen they are humming along.
> people should be conflict adverse
People are conflict adverse.
The issue is a states like Yemen, Syria, and Iraq just straight up imploded and collapsed, so people reverted to family relations.
If you ever wondered what the world would look like after the apocalypse, it doesn't look like Fallout or The Last of Us - it looks like Yemen, Syria, Nepal, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Lebanon, etc
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I'm just spitballing here, but the guys with the "God Is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam" flag may in my opinion have a more expansive agenda than what you're describing.
Hahaha I swear I thought it was a line from Borat before I realized those pricks are using these words exactly to describe their organization.. how anyone is taking them seriously is beyond my understanding..
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> we never had to be involved [in WWII] Ffs, can we have someone defending Arab interests who doesn’t pivot to de facto defending the literal Nazis?
We didn't get involved because of the holocaust. At the time many favored it in the US. Only near the end did se realise how horrible it was
Nobody claimed we did!
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China would sooner reroute that get involved in conflicts so far from home. You're blaming people who aren't American for not being American enough. Not everything has to be resolved violently.
China is involved by coming out aginst Isreal. Thus they support this terror campaign overall.
I feel like you're maybe trying to make a different point but avoiding saying it?