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Plan to End E-Vehicle Subsidies Sparks Anger in Germany

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Re: Plan to End E-Vehicle Subsidies Sparks Anger in Germany

#41
more than 60% of all fossil fuel subsidies granted in 2022 were spent in three countries: Germany (EUR 21 billion), Italy (EUR 25 billion) and France (EUR 30 billion): https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/indicators/fossil-fuel...

Fossil fuel subsidies are sacrosanct. 7T subsidies just in 2022: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel...

Re: Plan to End E-Vehicle Subsidies Sparks Anger in Germany

#42

The problem with e-vehicle subsidies is that for some reason we as society decided that an electrical car should also be a luxury car with insane and impractical acceleration, humungous range numbers and all kind of creature conforts and aesthetical fru-fru you can imagine. It doesn't even matter if people don't get rid of their petrol boxes, as long as they are kept as a second car for the very rare long-distance tr…

I bought a Chevrolet Bolt EUV to replace the Honda Odyssey van I had. I'm consistently pleased with how I'm able to fit into parking spaces that other people cannot. 95% of the time it's just me, 4% it's me and my wife, the rest are when my children are home from college.

I do wish that the Bolt charged faster. My 200 miles (charging up to 80% of the battery capacity) of range in warmer months is now 150 miles but this has been an issue (meaning I had to fast charge to get home) only once so far this winter.

I miss the smoother ride (the van had a much longer wheelbase) of the van over speed bumps, even at slow speeds. But my only interest in a bigger car would be to protect myself in the case of a collision with a Ford Lightning or similarly-sized vehicle.

Re: Plan to End E-Vehicle Subsidies Sparks Anger in Germany

#43
post #13

The auto industry has a huge amount of influence in Germany. Consumers are probably less bothered - all subsidy programs have an end, and people know this. However, the auto industry claiming "woe is us, the economy will crash, because we are so important"? That's the backlash. Germany has a deficit problem. They are expecting to run a deficit of 4.25% this year, when 3% is the upper limit if there is no emergency. T…

One perspective I found illuminating recently: US debt in practical terms is financed by creditors showing up for treasury auctions. The biggest two holders of our treasury bills, Japan and China, are scaling down how much they’re willing to purchase. If the world appetite for these instruments dries up we’re in serious trouble, either we default or we print money and inflation takes off again. At the same time there…

Per the US GAO, domestic investors hold 45% of US debt and that is the largest plurality (as of FY2020): https://www.gao.gov/americas-fiscal-future/federal-debt

Pay attention to the Pie Chart and not the map just below it which is the part often shared to claim that China owns "too much" US debt. The map doesn't include domestic investment because it would break the color scale at roughly 9.45 Trillion (nearly 10x Chinese investment according to the map's scale and nearly 1000x above the lowest part of that scale). It probably needs an asterisk somewhere directly in the graphic mentioning that instead of accidentally implying that the US has less domestic investment than Chinese investment.

21% held by international investors is still an interestingly large number, but certainly not "the US ends if Chinese investors start to get cold feet" that a lot of pop culture has come to think of it as. (That's still not a good political reason to think you should antagonize China, but it isn't exactly "mutually assured destruction" economically speaking for those that seem intent on antagonizing China.)

Don't forget: most US investors have some mix of US treasury bonds in their retirement plans, even as most of the US has migrated from pensions (which in their best years conservatively kept mixes heavily favoring US bonds) to more self-guided 401ks. Having some mixture of US bonds remains a standard practice for the US investor and the 401k market is still buying bonds because they are still a good investment for their risk profile.

Re: Plan to End E-Vehicle Subsidies Sparks Anger in Germany

#44

Germany is legit the one country in the western hemisphere doing the most damage to the future, and I am surprised how nobody calls them out on it. 1)Turning off nuclear and cancelling plans for new plants because literally their party, the "green party" originated as an anti nuclear party, so of course they don't care and just do it for political reasons. 2)E-Vehicles from US and China threatening Germany's old guar…

Germany's old guard manufacturers are definitely behind Chinese EV companies, but they seem much more publicly willing to adapt to EVs than US' old guard car companies. Neither Ford nor GM have committed publicly to an "EV or bust" date, but VW Group and Mercedes-Benz both have publicly committed to selling nothing but EVs starting in 2025. (They seem to be on track for that, too. So far.) BMW is the odd duck left in Germany still on the EV fence (and also still flirting with hydrogen fuel cells [in partnership with Toyota] as recently as 2022, lol), but also represent a fraction of the sales of VW Group and Mercedes-Benz brands.

> Remember them falsifying reports and getting away with a slap in the wrist?

The EPA settlements were much more interesting than a "slap on the wrist". They paid for the vast majority of America's second largest EV charging network (Electrify America). They are also a big part of the "catch-up" R&D funds behind why both VW Group and Mercedes-Benz believe they will make nothing but EVs starting around 2025. VW Group's now heralded MEB platform, especially, is somewhat directly a product of US EPA financial engineering and maybe doesn't exist without the EPA settlement requirements.

It's almost too bad US manufacturers weren't caught cheating in the same way/at the same time to have the EPA also require them to do similar things in a similar way.

Re: Plan to End E-Vehicle Subsidies Sparks Anger in Germany

#45

The problem with e-vehicle subsidies is that for some reason we as society decided that an electrical car should also be a luxury car with insane and impractical acceleration, humungous range numbers and all kind of creature conforts and aesthetical fru-fru you can imagine. It doesn't even matter if people don't get rid of their petrol boxes, as long as they are kept as a second car for the very rare long-distance tr…

> The problem with e-vehicle subsidies is that for some reason we as society decided that an electrical car should also be a luxury car with insane and impractical acceleration, humungous range numbers and all kind of creature conforts and aesthetical fru-fru you can imagine. That's not true. There are many electrical cars that definitively NOT luxury. Heck, I don't consider my Tesla a luxury vehicle when I compare i…

I get taxed on it for being in luxury class. It is above all other sedans price range. It's luxury.

Re: Plan to End E-Vehicle Subsidies Sparks Anger in Germany

#46
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because you have no leverage.

Give it time. The leverage is inevitable.

Maybe. At the risk of being argumentative: This top-down alarmism now has been going on for decades. Electric vehicles have close to zero market share, all considered (commercial and commuter unit of mass travelled). It could go away tonmorrow and the world wouldn't miss it.

We're talking about today's and tomorrow's subsidies. Electric's supposed leverage, not assuming authoritarian market interference, isn't on the visible horizon.

Re: Plan to End E-Vehicle Subsidies Sparks Anger in Germany

#47
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give it time. The leverage is inevitable.

Maybe. At the risk of being argumentative: This top-down alarmism now has been going on for decades. Electric vehicles have close to zero market share, all considered (commercial and commuter unit of mass travelled). It could go away tonmorrow and the world wouldn't miss it. We're talking about today's and tomorrow's subsidies. Electric's supposed leverage, not assuming authoritarian market interference, isn't on the…

Again, depends on which timeframe you're operating on, of course. A solution to the "alarmism" will happen, whether that's EV's or not. And there was a time when the iphone was just 1% of the market ...

And listen, I get it. I'm divided on EV's. On the one hand, I think they're necessary to help sustain our planet. All things equal, I'd advocate for them just to avoid pollution in our childrens lungs. That is 'alarming' enough to me not counting any concern for the impact of climate change.

On the other hand, I get the love of proper cars and wouldn't want to give that up.

For me the happy medium, is having basic, smart and comfotable, affordable EV's during the week (nothing as advanced as a Tesla, which I hope die out, they're complete overkill to what's needed and what we have capacity for). If the majority had this, then we could easily justify thrashing a V8 at the weekend and at the track to enjoy ourselves. To enjoy actual cars.

Anyway ... just p1ssing in the wind.

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