Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair FSD is the hardest software problem that man has ever attempted.
This is important to consider when judging Tesla's engineering capability, but not when judging Elon Musk's highly optimistic promises. Either Elon is aware of the fact that FSD is really hard and he's lying repeatedly about being able to deliver it "later this year". Or he is not aware that FSD is as hard as you say and needs to "hit the books" and understand the problem better. I don't really see an "out" here afte…
So you look at what's left to do and as long as you don't run into any unforeseen issues you say, looks like about six months from now.
Sometimes you don't run into any unforeseen issues and it turns out to be about six months.
Sometimes you do, and then it takes longer. So a year later you found an unexpected problem that delayed you by a year. Someone asks you how long you think it will take again, that issue delayed you by a year but that was a year ago, so you say, looks like about six months from now.
Eventually the estimate will be true but nobody knows when because nobody knows how to make an accurate estimate. Because you have to know how hard it is to do in order to know how long it will take, which nobody knows until after somebody has actually done it.