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Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

scientificamerican.com

81–90 of 205 posts

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#81
post #53

Very, very much yes. Criminal courts really, really aren't a good place to address technical matters. For example, ankle electronic monitoring (obviously) doesn't work well in faraday-cage like apartment complexes. And yet time and time again, GPS skew is used to argue that someone left their home -- sometimes even months after the fact. I've read emails from a local sheriff's office that said that they consider a su…

Also wrote the previous one which ended with me serving five months in jail for retweeting the public defender's Tweet about it (not your fault):

https://chicagoreader.com/news-politics/false-alarms/

This might have been the Tweet I reposted:

https://twitter.com/CookCoDefender/status/153970586223037644...

https://nitter.net/CookCoDefender/status/1539705862230376448

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#82
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This indicates that the jury/judge also failed the innocent man. What would have saved him? Are these cases relics before dna? Would it happen again today?

This sort of thing happens all the time. The Innocence Project has a multi-year backlog. If you are a black man with a public defender the prosecution almost doesn't even have to show up to get a conviction. Death row is full of people who were railroaded by the system.

Full of is misleading. If 1%-10% are innocent, 99-90% are still guilty. 21 of the 375 men that were innocent were on death row. https://innocenceproject.org/dna-exonerations-in-the-united-...

Are these cases a relic before dna evidence?

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#83
post #52
post #18

The first time I remember running across this was /Innumeracy/ (1988) by John Allen Paulos. It's been discussed for decades, and as best I can tell hasn't really been addressed at all. I don't know the solution. Ideally, everyone would be good at math, but I don't see that happening in the near future. My best answer is for us to provide every court have an on-call statistician, reviewing every case. I would hope big…

> My best answer is for us to provide every court have an on-call statistician, reviewing every case. Is this not the exact reason for expert witnesses?

Expert witnesses are inherently adversarial, like the court system itself. There is no "neutral" evaluation of the reliability of a piece of evidence. If one side hires an expert to evaluate something, they are under no obligation to have the expert testify in court if the evaluation doesn't help their case.

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#84
post #53

Very, very much yes. Criminal courts really, really aren't a good place to address technical matters. For example, ankle electronic monitoring (obviously) doesn't work well in faraday-cage like apartment complexes. And yet time and time again, GPS skew is used to argue that someone left their home -- sometimes even months after the fact. I've read emails from a local sheriff's office that said that they consider a su…

Sounds like grounds for a lawsuit against the company. They are stating false things about their product and causing people harm.

An official and highly paid representative sent to testify in court couldn't just be dismissed as "well, one salesman misspoke, not our fault".

This would be the just recourse, but I'm aware that probably nobody can afford this justice.

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#85

This a bit misaligned, blame shifting. I will be the first to admit there are unscrupulous, fame seeking, and overzealous expert witnesses out there. But, there are mechanisms in the courts to filter most of them out. I just think it is not done for money, time, career, or political reasons. I have seen this fail both in the adversarial (e.g., US) and elsewhere in inquisitorial (e.g., EU) court systems. In the advers…

> time and time again I watch lawyers refuse to hire expert witnesses for their own side because . Because they are very expensive and most regular people don't have money for them? Because public defenders have a few minutes to look over a case and don't have time or resources to bother with this level of care? Which of the two are caused by hubris?

This is not a binary situation.

I am writing that the choices made by lawyers are often for hubris, not lack of resources. This is my anecdotal experience, which is why I included qualifiers.

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#86
post #21
post #10

Note that proportionately few of our federal judges have spent any time as public defenders, and a disproportionately high number have served as prosecutors. Jackson is the first supreme court justice to have served as a public defender, whereas 3 other justices have been prosecutors. Prosecutors are incentivized to get convictions, and that slanted thinking could easily be carried on to the bench. [1] https://www.pb…

Being primarily a civil attorney, I'm well aware of the disproportionate number of former prosecutors on the bench. A couple of points: 1. Most prosecutors are liberals. It's not like right wing law students go looking for jobs in prosecutor's offices. I can't think of any from my class way back when. 2. The problem is more that judges and prosecutors are old colleagues. The slant is that they all know the defendants…

Being primarily a criminal, #1 doesn't follow my experiences. I've been very friendly with a large number of prosecutors in my time, and I can't imagine a single one of them being a liberal.

#2 it is totally true that prosecutors heavily rely on the judges being ex-colleagues of theirs. I have never heard of a prosecutor only bringing charges where the defendant is clearly guilty, though. That does not follow my experience, primarily in pre-trial detention, where I got to read the discovery materials in thousands of cases. Obviously they have a bar in felony cases of having to pass a grand jury, but it was once said you could get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ham_sandwich#Cultural_impact

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#87
post #18

The first time I remember running across this was /Innumeracy/ (1988) by John Allen Paulos. It's been discussed for decades, and as best I can tell hasn't really been addressed at all. I don't know the solution. Ideally, everyone would be good at math, but I don't see that happening in the near future. My best answer is for us to provide every court have an on-call statistician, reviewing every case. I would hope big…

> My best answer is for us to provide every court have an on-call statistician, reviewing every case.

Anyone paid by the government is always going to know which way their bread is buttered. They would always be looked on with extreme suspicion. Even public defenders have this problem defending their clients when they are paid by the same government that is prosecuting the defendant.

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#88
post #18

The first time I remember running across this was /Innumeracy/ (1988) by John Allen Paulos. It's been discussed for decades, and as best I can tell hasn't really been addressed at all. I don't know the solution. Ideally, everyone would be good at math, but I don't see that happening in the near future. My best answer is for us to provide every court have an on-call statistician, reviewing every case. I would hope big…

It would help if the legal profession (at least in the US) did not actively select against numeracy. The running joke in law school is that everyone who was a decent student but bad at math goes to law school because the LSATs do not have a math component, unlike the GREs. I’m an engineer and former lawyer, and when I was in law school I actually ended up taking a really disproportionate number of tax law classes because I was so much better than my average peer at basic arithmetic that I could always beat the curve in classes that required basic calculations. And we’re not talking about even intro level algebra, just basic arithmetic. Addition, subtraction, some multiplication and division.

By ignoring math skills altogether, the legal profession necessarily ends up selecting for individuals who on average have a poorer understanding of anything quantitative or statistical, and often that also correlates with poorer understanding of all technical and scientific matters, because the same innumeracy means those individuals don’t make it far any sciences at all, even in their secondary or tertiary education. So they often don’t even have strong fundamentals on the basic concepts in those areas.

As an engineer, it was maddening to witness and absolutely pervades every aspect of the US legal system. Which both translates into reaching false factual conclusions as in OP, but also infects legal reasoning with a ridiculous lack of rigor (a point which lawyers often dispute vigorously, but they have no concept of just how much rigor they lose by eschewing mathematical and especially statistical reasoning), and it also translates into poorer operational efficiency and administrative efficiency in the legal system, and poorer outcomes from the regulatory system, which, while often informed by technical concerns, remains a primarily legal- and lawyer- driven process. That opens up regulatory bodies to subjective political concerns where there is absolutely no reasonable technical case to be made. This phenomenon is most obvious in recent history with climate change related regulations, but is pervasive throughout the US policy making establishment, and contributes substantially to our challenges with special interests and regulatory capture.

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#89
post #4

The police and prosecution are the ones using these tools to attack innocent people. The article opens with a case of the corrupt prosecution intentionally and illegally withholding evidence. This isn’t about bad science, this is about bad prosecutors who are more interested in convictions than justice. Selective enforcement and opportunities to engage in misconduct like this are endemic in the US criminal justice sy…

> The police and prosecution are the ones using these tools to attack innocent people. ... and the defense fails to hire their own expert witness, or use same exact method to keep people out of prison. (Remember "If it doesn't fit, you must acquit"? Cochran did not come up with it by himself, but an expert provided it to him, the glove not fitting.) Assuming you are talking about US, adversarial courts.

the defense will always have less time and money to get their own expert witness, and i can tell you for absolute certainty that there is way more demand than supply for defense experts.

and yes they have a million other disadvantages that are SUPPOSED to be balanced by the advantage that the standard burden of proof offers. but that is clearly failing if prosecution experts are running rampant with few checks, and 95-98%(!) of criminal cases plead out before a trial even occurs. public defenders are time constrained in the extreme(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/31/us/public-def...), and public defendants are financially constrained in the extreme. its a terrible mixture.

Re: Bad science and bad statistics in the courtroom convict innocent people

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it completely depends on what you mean by innocent. A lot of cases are won by defendants, who after spending years in pretrial, find the prosecution did not have enough evidence to convict them. I've been witness to some far-out jury cases where the defendant was massively guilty but the jury acquitted for some reason. That's why I would often recommend a jury trial in a lot of cases simply because juries have su…

Hey hope you're doing well - have your charges have been fully dropped finally?

99% of them dropped two weeks ago. Working on the last one now. Will post more once it is all over. Thank you!
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