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Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

nytimes.com

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Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#341

Post by atleastoptimal »

syndicatedjelly wrote: post #315
atleastoptimal wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's assuming AI still stay as it is forever. In 3-5 years every job that can be done on a computer will be able to be done better by an AI designed for that job. The only issue will be adoption, not the tech itself.

That's quite an assertion. Why do you think that's true?

All jobs done on a computer are information processing. AI is approaching human level information processing in every benchmark we can throw at it. By the time it eclipses all trained humans, using an AI to do a human job will be a no-brainer, as AI's:

1. Don't require health insurance/mental health leave/PTO

2. Can work 24/7

3. Are infinitely replicatable

4. More interpretable/modifiable than human intelligence

2 years ago the best AI art models were worse than 99% of human artists, now they're better than 99% of them. The same thing will happen to every skill that isn't based on motor/sensory abilities.

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#342

Post by atleastoptimal »

ejiblabahaba wrote: post #201
atleastoptimal wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When was the last time Nuclear plants in the US significantly endangered human lives. 1979? With regards to rocket launches, pharma, etc. those are all somewhat novel domains: experiments where risk is a natural part of being the first time trying a set of variables. The variables in air traffic have been the same for decades, thus the thresholds for accepted risk should be much lower.

The US literally stopped issuing new reactor permits in 1979 (down from on-average about 12 per year), and didn't begin issuing new ones until 2012. Out of 177 reactors issued construction permits up through 1979, at most 112 were ever online at once, in 1991, up from 69 in 1979 when the Three Mile Island failure happened - implying over half of already permitted construction was abandoned or never even started. The…

What variables are changing in air travel that haven't before?

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#343

Post by quickthrower2 »

syndicatedjelly wrote: post #339
quickthrower2 wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wat?! You can compare them. Ok if you are being pedantic you need to compare the airline, route, plane model and weather characteristic's with an equivalent car journey route, car model, mechanical condition and driver experience and mental fortitude. But in general planes are way safer than cars. If you are 40, perfect vision, sober as a saint in a modern safe car and drive mostly on highways at safe speeds you are…

Ok if you are being pedantic you need to compare the airline, route, plane model and weather characteristic's with an equivalent car journey route, car model, mechanical condition and driver experience and mental fortitude. You can’t compare a plane journey with a car journey; they’re not interchangeable. Most miles for people are just to and from work - planes can’t just replace all those journeys, even if you sum t…

You can compare them if you have $1 to spend as a government and want to maximise the number of lives that $1 saves.

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#344

Post by mikrotikker »

vel0city wrote: post #340
mikrotikker wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah my feet work and so do my eyes. I have had small accidents in the past and learned from them. I understand for people who don't learn or can't judge speed and need a crutch, but perhaps it's better they don't drive at all.

> I have had small accidents in the past and learned from them. Maybe if you had AEB and FCW you wouldn't have had those accidents in the first place. Or did you not have working feet and eyes at the time and only recently got those installed? You even acknowledged you've had multiple collisions, did you not learn when getting your license? Did you not learn on the first accident? How many collisions should be expect…

No it would not have had an effect. And I was younger and learned from those minor prangs. These fancy computerized features will only make new drivers less capable and dull the senses of older drivers. They become a crutch and may cause dangerous situations if these inept people driving vehicles without AEB and other features.

Just hearing the stories the people around me tell me to do with the computerized features like AEB and other stuff makes me keep my car purchases firmly in the 1990s, which coincidentally is one of the best decades for cars.

Like the woz says "never trust a computer you can't throw out a window"

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#345

Post by strken »

rowanG077 wrote: post #323
strken wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give me a source for B12 deficiency being serious enough that it's comparable to the health risks associated with cocaine , of all drugs. All the reports I'm aware of involve extreme levels of daily use, e.g. https://journals.lww.com/jfmpc/fulltext/2020/09110/recreatio... ("75-100 canisters daily"). The idea that a single dose will oxidise enough B12 to be clinically significant is not supported by evidence, it's som…

First off. It's really not nice throwing out terms like "it's something you've made up". But anyway here are some pointers why I think that Nitrous oxide is worse then cocaine, these are stats from the Netherlands because that's where I did the research: A single dose shows traceable, but reverseable, neurotoxic effects in rats: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03064... > Our findings demonstrat…

That's worse than I was aware of. Thanks for putting some rough stats on the size of the problem.

At the same time, in the US in 2021 there were 7.1 cocaine-related deaths per 100k[0], and 1.7% of the population had used cocaine in the past year[1], so their mortality rate is more like 417 deaths per 100k. That's hugely higher than the rate in the Netherlands and I wonder why there's such a difference.

[0] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db474.htm

[1] https://nida.nih.gov/publications/research-reports/cocaine/w...

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#346

Post by vel0city »

mikrotikker wrote: post #344
vel0city wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have had small accidents in the past and learned from them. Maybe if you had AEB and FCW you wouldn't have had those accidents in the first place. Or did you not have working feet and eyes at the time and only recently got those installed? You even acknowledged you've had multiple collisions, did you not learn when getting your license? Did you not learn on the first accident? How many collisions should be expect…

No it would not have had an effect. And I was younger and learned from those minor prangs. These fancy computerized features will only make new drivers less capable and dull the senses of older drivers. They become a crutch and may cause dangerous situations if these inept people driving vehicles without AEB and other features. Just hearing the stories the people around me tell me to do with the computerized features…

I bet before your first accident you probably thought you were pretty good at driving and "my feet work and so do my eyes." Then I imagine after your first collision you thought you learned from your mistakes and "my feet work and so do my eyes." Then after your second collision you thought you learned from your mistakes and "my feet work and so do my eyes." Then after your third collision...

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#347

Post by syndicatedjelly »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #341
syndicatedjelly wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's quite an assertion. Why do you think that's true?

All jobs done on a computer are information processing. AI is approaching human level information processing in every benchmark we can throw at it. By the time it eclipses all trained humans, using an AI to do a human job will be a no-brainer, as AI's: 1. Don't require health insurance/mental health leave/PTO 2. Can work 24/7 3. Are infinitely replicatable 4. More interpretable/modifiable than human intelligence 2 ye…

What happens once AI is able to do all our work for us? What will humans spend their time doing?

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#348

Post by Roark66 »

strken wrote: post #345
rowanG077 wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First off. It's really not nice throwing out terms like "it's something you've made up". But anyway here are some pointers why I think that Nitrous oxide is worse then cocaine, these are stats from the Netherlands because that's where I did the research: A single dose shows traceable, but reverseable, neurotoxic effects in rats: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03064... > Our findings demonstrat…

That's worse than I was aware of. Thanks for putting some rough stats on the size of the problem. At the same time, in the US in 2021 there were 7.1 cocaine-related deaths per 100k[0], and 1.7% of the population had used cocaine in the past year[1], so their mortality rate is more like 417 deaths per 100k. That's hugely higher than the rate in the Netherlands and I wonder why there's such a difference. [0] https://ww…

>That's hugely higher than the rate in the Netherlands and I wonder why there's such a difference.

Interesting. I wonder if average drug purity and common adulterants make up for this difference? What is the average "street" cocaine purity in the US vs the Netherlands? What do they cut it with? Inert substances? Amphetamines? Meth? Mephedrone? Who knows.

Also, what about the mode of taking it. Is there huge variability in how the users take it between the two countries due to different culture? (snorting vs smoking vs injecting, also multi-drug use). Finally, what if in one country this particular drug is more popular with the older population while in the other it's "all the rage" with the younger people? Death statistics will be different too.

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#349

Post by [deleted] »

paxys wrote: post #264
akira2501 wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

50% of accidents are single vehicle accidents that involve drugs or alcohol. It's more if you add in youth an inexperience. So, _most_ vehicle deaths are self-inflicted. 16% are pedestrians. They usually get hit from behind, and even if they don't, almost always at night. 16% are motorcycles. I ride. I love riding, but the reason for that statistic is obvious. There's zero safety margin when you're on one. Finally, t…

People aren’t driving drunk and high in a vacuum. You are affected by them even if you are the most careful driver in the world.

[deleted]

Re: Air traffic controllers pushed to the brink

#350

Post by Geisterde »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #243
Geisterde wrote: post #202

Usually I like to just read comments, get a feel for where society is. I love the comments in this, it can be summarized as "throw AI at it" and "more tax dollars will fix it". Lets all forget that we have put the airline industry on government life support through regulation and bailouts, thats turned the biggest companies into tumors that survive off their (literal) monopoly rights. We can all pretend we didnt dehu…

Yeah people doing that kind of job needed a jab. Sorry to say it. Greater good.

Except, the jab didnt prevent infection or transmission, so what difference does it make?

More pertinently, you are referring to the ends justifying the means. If Hitler had succeeded in making a utopian society where everything is just great, would he have been justified in the methods he used to achieve it?

There will always be some ambitious goal, something society could achieve, if we could just get these people on board. You know, they are just in the way, they are holding society back! What follows that logic is never good for society, and look at what its created in ours; there is a contingent of ~60 million americans that never got vaccinated and are royally pissed about those mandates, probably tens of millions more that were effectively coerced into vaccination, and of these groups a disproportionate amount are gun owners.

So, greater good, is it a good thing that something like 50 million gun owners now see their political opponents as a threat to their way of life? Do you think that kind of force could be stopped if things ever turned sour in this country? Are you so certain in the authority and power of your own political alliance that you dont think thats, an issue?

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