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Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

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101–110 of 184 posts

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#101

Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???

Wouldnt you want to have a motherlode hoarded when supplies dry up 100 years from now, a commodity that fuels advanced avionics?

What do you mean? If you’re referring to lithium battery powered aircraft my understanding is that will never be viable for anything but the smallest aircraft.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incentives are powerful and scale.

"Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome." -- Charlie Munger

I think the difficulty of the problem is also important to the outcome.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#103

Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???

Lithium deposits come in various grades and have different associated costs for extraction. The famous deposits in Bolivia are considered cheap to exploit. The geothermal brines in England as well. Other rock sources might be harder.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if speculators don’t ruin everyone’s fun betting from the sidelines in volumes that outpace the influence of legitimate trade.

Are you implying that stocks are not legitimate trade? That's anti-freedom.

Trading in commodities futures has a point, but it has gotten absolutely ridiculous in scope. The market participants used to be farm collectives, mining companies on the one and large wholesalers and consumers on the other side as a way for both to hedge against price swings... but that's no longer the case. Hell even if you just look at the last 10 years, trading volume has exploded by ~3x (futures) / ~5x (options) [1] - but there is no economic fundamentals (e.g. production amount of farms or raw material mines) to support this, it's all financial mind-fuckery that skims off billions of "fractions of cents per transaction" and redirects them to a select few very rich people.

This kind of predatory leeching has to stop, once and for all.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/377025/global-futures-an...

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#106
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok now you’re switching your argument from we don’t have the capacity to build mines to NEPA. Except this has nothing to do with NEPA and the tribes weren’t getting anywhere with the lawsuits and constantly losing because of the General Mining Law of 1872. I’m not aware of any serious challenge to the construction of this mine. Sure, there may be governmental red tape (eg environmental assessment impact studies and w…

I don't think I switched arguments. They are the same argument to me. For example the reason that we don't have enough homes in America is not because we literally forgot how to nail boards together to make a house, it is because we gradually accreted a system where it takes 5+ years to get permission to do it. The bureaucratic capacity to begin building is key, and on the critical path of actual production.

Sure but housing is a municipal and state level issue while this mine is on federal land. Your argument is maybe relevant to explain why it was 14 years between discovery and being granted approval in 2021 just before Biden took office. But I don’t know the timeline of how long it took to get the approval once filed - do you? Couldn’t find anything online.

Your argument would be stronger about the Maine mine but this mine was approved in 2021 and afaik production is ongoing.

The mining is being done by the Chinese as Lithium Americas’ majority owner is a Chinese company. GM has already invested 650M to get access to the mine. This does not seem like the right hill to argue about bureaucratic lethargy. And again, I don’t see how any of this has any relevance as to whether America has the capability to build and run a lithium mine - we do. We may not have refining capabilities (not sure - haven’t researched) but that’ll come online once we have significant mining operations.

At the end of the day, you don’t want to mine too aggressively because you’ll shoot yourself in the foot economically. The US has some of the largest lithium reserves in the world. This mine alone would represent 25% of the world’s current production capacity. Ignoring environmental damage from mining (which is quite considerable), if you bring it online too quickly you’ll lose out on a lot of money which is probably a larger factor than anything else.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#107
post #73

I guess nobody told Energizer. https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-ne... My Nest smoke detectors demand these specific batteries. They were all installed around the same time, so they all come due at once, at a cost of ~$200.

You have enough smoke detectors that it requires 75 - 100 batteries to power them all?

The old Nest smoke detectors seem to use six of those batteries each. That is still a fairly high number of smoke detectors.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#108
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there something unique in mining lithium that would be different from other kind of mining that America does? I feel like the capability if needed to extract and refine it within the US exists / wouldn’t be hard to develop over the course of constructing the mine, no? Also there’s a lawsuit ongoing here with Native Americans suing to stop any mining. I suspect that there’s going to be a lot of pressure to not star…

> there’s a lawsuit Exactly my point. All other extraction industries in America are grandfathered in from before NEPA, before anyone gave a damn that a dead guy from the far past thought the stones were holy. America is paralyzed by its own legal system which can be wielded as a weapon by any bad-faith actor who doesn't want electrification to happen.

Is it really that unimagineable that some people would rather not see this large area of natural land destroyed, and have to live with the resulting externalities of the mine? People who hold different values than you aren't all evil beaurocrats who hate electrification. Many of the folks opposing this mine are strongly for green energy projects in general, but clearly prioritize certain tradeoffs differently than you do.

There's an argument to be made that the tradeoffs are worth it in this case, but you don't seem to be making an argument so much as completely dismissing groups of locals and environmentalists who have a number of valid concerns.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if speculators don’t ruin everyone’s fun betting from the sidelines in volumes that outpace the influence of legitimate trade.

Are you implying that stocks are not legitimate trade? That's anti-freedom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

In smaller markets stock trading can turn into a manipulation game completely unrelated to the underlying asset.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#110
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok now you’re switching your argument from we don’t have the capacity to build mines to NEPA. Except this has nothing to do with NEPA and the tribes weren’t getting anywhere with the lawsuits and constantly losing because of the General Mining Law of 1872. I’m not aware of any serious challenge to the construction of this mine. Sure, there may be governmental red tape (eg environmental assessment impact studies and w…

I don't think I switched arguments. They are the same argument to me. For example the reason that we don't have enough homes in America is not because we literally forgot how to nail boards together to make a house, it is because we gradually accreted a system where it takes 5+ years to get permission to do it. The bureaucratic capacity to begin building is key, and on the critical path of actual production.

Actually no, we really did forget how to nail boards together. Skilled labor vanished as other wages rose.

Making a new house used to actually cost less than buying an existing one. Today, the calculation has changed, and it is more expensive, mostly because of the labor costs. They're only able to build in areas where there are fewer available jobs so there's no price pressure.

Literally people leaving the skilled trades because job pricing pressure to work somewhere else. I've even met jr developers that used to be electricians. It's going to be hard to "remember" the trades.

Permits are taking 5 years in esoteric oddball projects. The reality is a permit for a SFH takes a few months to get approved, even less for ADUs.

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