"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." -- Nassim Taleb
Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
81–90 of 184 posts
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#82"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." -- Nassim Taleb
Incentives are powerful and scale.
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean, that's sort of smart isn't it? Wouldn't you rather use someone else's resources instead of your own for as long as you can? Additionally, the deposit becomes a strategic reserve to control prices when needed.
It's not a strategic reserve if you don't develop the capability to timely extract and refine it.
Is there something unique in mining lithium that would be different from other kind of mining that America does? I feel like the capability if needed to extract and refine it within the US exists / wouldn’t be hard to develop over the course of constructing the mine, no?
Also there’s a lawsuit ongoing here with Native Americans suing to stop any mining. I suspect that there’s going to be a lot of pressure to not start a mine because of how destructive they are to the environment. At the same time, I’m pretty sure the mine will happen. However, at that point you want to have the highest price of lithium possible and this is a substantial amount of lithium that would be coming on the market which would counteract any price growth.
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#84Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#85Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#86Time to stock up on lifepo4 batteries.
Any ideas what the best source is for 18650 format LFP cells?
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't find it clickbaity at all. I mean, it makes it sound like the price of lithium dropped massively, but isn't that exactly what happened?
I think the difference is in what a drop is in regards to. A drop of a well established price indicates something has fundamentally changed to make the price go down. A drop from the peak of a large increase that is still far above the previous well established price looks more like something has fundamentally changed to make the price go up, but markets over estimated how much the price would increase. The differenc…
> A drop of a well established price indicates something has fundamentally changed to make the price go down.
No it doesn't. Look at any commodity futures prices: they swing wildly for no apparent reason. Fundamentals are only loosely connected to today's prices.
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not a strategic reserve if you don't develop the capability to timely extract and refine it.
Is there something unique in mining lithium that would be different from other kind of mining that America does? I feel like the capability if needed to extract and refine it within the US exists / wouldn’t be hard to develop over the course of constructing the mine, no? Also there’s a lawsuit ongoing here with Native Americans suing to stop any mining. I suspect that there’s going to be a lot of pressure to not star…
> there’s a lawsuit
Exactly my point. All other extraction industries in America are grandfathered in from before NEPA, before anyone gave a damn that a dead guy from the far past thought the stones were holy. America is paralyzed by its own legal system which can be wielded as a weapon by any bad-faith actor who doesn't want electrification to happen.
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#89Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???
Sitting on it makes sense when something could go up in price long-term. This is probably modern government inaction though.
>Sitting on it makes sense when something could go up in price long-term.
It could make sense in some very specific situations, but that really depends on the details.
Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again
#90Commodity prices fluctuate wildly. Fundamentals have very little to do with it.