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Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

wolfstreet.com

71–80 of 184 posts

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#71
post #11
post #2

> CNY per tonne I somewhat expected USD but i'm not surprised. Times change.

Since the end of the USD as the world reserve currency is imminent, the wisest thing US government can do is promote and favor Bitcoin. It's better to have a world reserve currency that no one controls, than CNY.

Poe's law strikes again.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#72
post #69

Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???

I mean, that's sort of smart isn't it? Wouldn't you rather use someone else's resources instead of your own for as long as you can? Additionally, the deposit becomes a strategic reserve to control prices when needed.

It's not a strategic reserve if you don't develop the capability to timely extract and refine it.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you look at where the overwhelming majority of lithium batteries are produced, it makes sense to use China as the benchmark (and why it pays more than the US or Europe).

It isn’t obvious to me (although, I am dumb about this stuff) why China would pay more for lithium if they (presumably) use more… wouldn’t we expect economies of scale and all that to make it cheaper for them?

Economies of scale aren’t automatic. They only apply to a certain size after which any benefits plateau.

Simultaneously you have demand and supply pressures especially if demand is increasing and supply cannot keep up, pressures due to limited transportation and shipping capacity which was a huge issue over the past couple of years across the board (and probably a bigger driver of inflation than nearly anything other than energy prices), and other costs increasing such as energy prices.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#75
post #73

I guess nobody told Energizer. https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-ne... My Nest smoke detectors demand these specific batteries. They were all installed around the same time, so they all come due at once, at a cost of ~$200.

That's probably due to long standby times. You could get away with cheap (i.e., Harbor Freight batteries at $20/20 or comparable) if you were willing to change them more frequently.

I'm not sure what the actual scale of difference is between battery chemistries. Perhaps someone with more knowledge will reply and refute me.

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#76
post #38

> The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, trading in Shanghai and serving as a benchmark I'm not sure why the Shanghai price is being used as the global benchmark without any qualification in this article, because in 2022 China was paying 2x per KG more than the U.S.A. and Europe. Everybody saw a significant increase, but nobody quite like China, where it looks like a bubble. Prices have come down globally…

Why was China paying so much more? Just to ensure they would have enough for their needs?

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#78
post #73

I guess nobody told Energizer. https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-ne... My Nest smoke detectors demand these specific batteries. They were all installed around the same time, so they all come due at once, at a cost of ~$200.

You have enough smoke detectors that it requires 75 - 100 batteries to power them all?

Re: Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

#80
post #76
post #38

> The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, trading in Shanghai and serving as a benchmark I'm not sure why the Shanghai price is being used as the global benchmark without any qualification in this article, because in 2022 China was paying 2x per KG more than the U.S.A. and Europe. Everybody saw a significant increase, but nobody quite like China, where it looks like a bubble. Prices have come down globally…

Why was China paying so much more? Just to ensure they would have enough for their needs?

That's what I'm curious about — everybody went up significantly in 2022, but if China was paying double for imports, then why wasn't everybody else having to pay double as well?

China procures most of their lithium through trade, so they're tapping the same global markets as everybody else.

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