Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century • Hacker News Board

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#101

Post by michaelochurch » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 1:21 AM UTC

Here's the major change. Jobs don't last 5+ years on a regular basis anymore. It's very hard to have a real career without moving around, because people are either "tapped" for the best projects in the first 6-12 months in a new job, or they're not. The "not" case means that it's time to move on. You have to move around a lot (a lot more than most people are comfortable with) to have a real career.

What this means is that living outside of a major city is just untenable, because changing jobs means changing cities, and no one wants to do that every few years. If you loe uour job or just need to change, and you live in New York, you're OK. If you live in Dayton, Ohio, though, you're somewhat out of luck. The appeal of the star cities is skyrocketing because of this change: because the rest of the cities just don't have large enough job markets, considering how specialized most modern work is and how frequent job changes are becoming.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#102

Post by ak217 » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 1:26 AM UTC

Lewisham wrote: post #79

_delirium wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've only seen tests on highways; afaik Google's car can't yet technologically manage the process of showing up to a random spot you want it to. For example, it can drive on 280, but it can't exit 280 into SF, navigate surface streets, and pull up to the curb where you're waiting.

I've seen it, it can do this. I've seen it first-hand navigate it's way around the Google campus, go into a left turn lane, turn left into one of the Google buildings. The entrance has a prominent bump, and the car slowed down so as not to hit it hard. Of course, it may have been pre-programmed, but I don't believe so. What I don't think it can yet do is navigate arbitrary systems like drive-thrus.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#103

Post by ekianjo » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 1:28 AM UTC

The article missed the economic point, I think. If we live through another major economy crash (that cannot be ruled out, seeing the huge public deficits everywhere) this means high paying jobs in big cities will be harder to find, and therefore the cost of living in large cities will be unsustainable for many. If this happens, moving to the suburbs in order to have decent standards of living is very likely as well.

It's very difficult to make predictions on such trends, however, and the article's points rely on a great number of undisclosed assumptions on the future.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#104

Post by lnwilliams » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 1:31 AM UTC

scarmig wrote: post #11

I'm sympathetic to the viewpoint that it's important to watch cities as central to our future. This article, however, relies a bit much on psychological gobbledygook. Helicopter parents, Friends , the Google bus... Even the one graph they provide is more or less incomprehensible. What would be useful to see is land prices in inner urban areas, average lived population density, and comparative migration patterns for y…

You make a good point in your reference to gentrification. It is the reason Gen Y-ers from cookie cutter backgrounds feel more comfortable in urban areas. Many cities are simply turning into condensed suburbs. However, I think this "migration" is only temporary as Gen Y-ers will likely move to outlying suburbs as they mature and start families. Metro area suburbs are ultimately where they will end up as they provide the best of both worlds, convenience and comfort.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#105

Post by JoelSutherland » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 1:32 AM UTC

learc83 wrote: post #21

scarmig wrote: post #11

I'm sympathetic to the viewpoint that it's important to watch cities as central to our future. This article, however, relies a bit much on psychological gobbledygook. Helicopter parents, Friends , the Google bus... Even the one graph they provide is more or less incomprehensible. What would be useful to see is land prices in inner urban areas, average lived population density, and comparative migration patterns for y…

I thought the section on TV shows was nonsense as well. He cherry picked a few examples that fit his model. Off the top of my head some modern comedies that don't fit are Modern Family, Parks and Recreation, and Desperate Housewives. There were plenty of classic shows set in the city as well. Mary Tyler Moore, The Jeffersons, The Bob Newhart Show, Three's Company, Taxi, Welcome Back Kotter.

If anything the shows you list are exceptions that prove the rule. Parks and Rec, Desperate Housewives and the Office are not exactly aspirational portrayals of non-city living.

Modern family is about people older than Gen Y members and is set in Hollywood. While they're not downtown, they spend "fun" time there.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#106

Post by emperorcezar » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 1:35 AM UTC

wtn wrote: post #14

scarmig wrote: post #11

I'm sympathetic to the viewpoint that it's important to watch cities as central to our future. This article, however, relies a bit much on psychological gobbledygook. Helicopter parents, Friends , the Google bus... Even the one graph they provide is more or less incomprehensible. What would be useful to see is land prices in inner urban areas, average lived population density, and comparative migration patterns for y…

Chicago shrank by 6.9% from 2000-2010.

Chicago mostly lost population in black neighborhoods. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/us/16illinois.html

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#107

Post by orangecat » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 2:08 AM UTC

BobertK wrote: post #49

Not to mention: Most older Americans are broke. An apt in the city (think re-populated smaller, older cities, and large towns) is cheaper to heat and cool, convenient; so then a car and it's attendant expense is unnecessary. If I am old and divorced i'd rather have neighbors across the hall than a house to maintain, even if I can afford it.

Most older Americans are broke.

Source? By the last numbers I've seen, net wealth increases directly with age.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#108

Post by orangecat » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 2:08 AM UTC

BobertK wrote: post #49

Not to mention: Most older Americans are broke. An apt in the city (think re-populated smaller, older cities, and large towns) is cheaper to heat and cool, convenient; so then a car and it's attendant expense is unnecessary. If I am old and divorced i'd rather have neighbors across the hall than a house to maintain, even if I can afford it.

Most older Americans are broke.

Source? By the last numbers I've seen, net wealth increases directly with age.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#109

Post by reitzensteinm » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 2:13 AM UTC

sliverstorm wrote: post #80

nitrogen wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But most of a car's energy is spent accelerating, with the rest spent fighting wind resistance. Improved traffic flow helps with both -- no stop and go means no energy wasted to braking, and automated car trains will allow cars to take turns drafting off one another for a significant reduction in drag. Notice that cars have markedly different highway vs. city mileage ratings. The old BMW I used to drive would get bet…

On a freeway drive, I assure you, energy spent maintaining speed is the primary investment by great lengths. This is an over-generalization. Yes, city mileage is generally lower than highway, and yes, it is because of stop-and-go. But markedly different? My old car got 32 freeway, 29 city. My current car gets 27 freeway, 25 city. Cars with a large difference, like your BMW, suffer either from poor aerodynamics or eng…

Poor aerodynamics would make the difference smaller, not larger.

We can drastically increase fuel efficiency by making our cars out of carbon fibre, and it doesn't have to be more expensive or less safe. Check out Amory Lovin's concept car for one example.

We believe lighter = less safe, despite evidence to the contrary (in reality it's smaller = less safe, lighter = safer). Perhaps computer controlled cars will allow us to stop feeling the need to fortify our cars more and more, making the road less safe for everyone.

Re: Why Generation Y Is Causing The Great Migration Of The 21st Century

#110

Post by gradstudent » Mon, Apr 16, 2012, 2:14 AM UTC

noonespecial wrote: post #71

gradstudent wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Driverless cars will help almost all of those. Think how much more viable zip cars would become if you didn't have to get to the car in the first place. If you could just call a car with a smartphone app and it would show up. Congratulations: You've just described taxi cabs.

Taxis are expensive and severely supply side limited. Interesting things happen when things that were previously limited become much less so. People had "internet" when they dialed it at 56kbits, but things like youtube were impossible. I'd guess that self driving zip-cars would be at least as big a paradigm shift.

Taxis are expensive only for individuals. Share a cab with 2-3 other people and the costs plummet. Mix in some government subsidies and better integration with existing public transportation systems and you have a perfectly adequate cost-effective solution right now. Without any fancy robots.