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OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

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Re: OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Sam could "potentially" be the bigger man in this. Ilya may still be someone who should be on the board... Especially given his role as head of alignment research. He deserves a say on key issues related to OpenAI. People get excited. Stupid things happen. Especially in startups. ChatGPT having become so successful doesn't change the fact that the company as a whole, is fairly immature still. They should seri…

So you think Ilya will stay while getting none of what he wanted because he still wants to have a job at openai? Do you think he did it with no real grievances?

He has succeeded in forcing a negotiation on the issues he's unhappy about. If he felt his concerns were being ignored previously, well, that is certainly no longer the case. I wouldn't assume necessarily that he's not going to get any of what he wanted.

Re: OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

#242

This is why, when you claim to be running a non-profit to "benefit humankind," you shouldn't put all your resources into a for-profit subsidiary. Eventually, the for-profit arm, and its investors, will find its nonprofit parent a hindrance, and an insular board of directors won't stand a chance against corporate titans.

Yeah, but also remember that Altman and Musk started the non-profit to begin with (back when both their reputations were much different). They were explicitly concerned about Google's dominance in AI. It was always competitive, and always about power.

Wikipedia gives these names:

In December 2015, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Reid Hoffman, Jessica Livingston, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Infosys, and YC Research announced[15] the formation of OpenAI and pledged over $1 billion to the venture

Do any of those people sound like their day job was running non-profits? Had any of them EVER worked at a non-profit?

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So a pretty straightforward reading is that the business/profit-minded guys started the non-profit to lure the idealistic researchers in.

The non-profit thing was a feel-good ruse, a recruiting tool. Sutskever could have had any job he wanted at that point, after his breakthroughs in the field. He also didn't have to work, after his 3-person company was acquired by Google for $40M+.

I'm sure it's more nuanced than that, but it's silly to say that there was an idealistic and pure non-profit, and some business guys came in and ruined it. The motive was there all along.

Not to say I wouldn't have been fooled (I mean certainly employees got many benefits, which made it worth their time). But in retrospect it's naive to accept their help with funding and connections (e.g. OpenAI's first office was Stripe's office), and not think they wouldn't get paid back later.

VCs are very good at understanding the long game. Peter Thiel knows that most of the profits come after 10-15 years.

Altman can take no equity in OpenAI, because he's playing the long game. He knows it's just "physics" that he will get paid back later (and that seems to have already happened)

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Anybody who's worked at a startup that became a successful company has seen this split. The early employees create a ton of value, but that value is only fully captured 10+ years down the road.

And when there are tens or hundreds of billions of dollars of value created, the hawks will circle.

It definitely happened at say Google. Early employees didn't capture the value they generated, while later employees rode the wave of the early success. (I was a middle-ish employee, neither early nor late)

So basically the early OpenAI employees created a ton of value, but they have no mechanism to capture the value, or perhaps control it in order to "benefit humanity".

From here on out, it's politics and money -- you can see that with the support of Microsoft's CEO, OpenAI investors, many peer CEOs from YC, weird laudatory tweets by Eric Schmidt, etc.

The awkward, poorly executed firing of the CEO seems like an obvious symptom of that. It's a last-ditch effort for control, when it's become obvious that the game is unfolding according to the normal rules of capitalism.

(Note: I'm not against making a profit, or non-profits. Just saying that the whole organizational structure was fishy/dishonest to begin with, and in retrospect it shouldn't be surprising it turned out this way.)

Re: OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

#243

The key question in my mind is not who is going to be on the new board, but whether Ilya Sutskever will stay if Altman comes back. I worry that OpenAI without Ilya is not going to produce groundbreaking innovations at the same pace. Hopefully Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever can patch things up. That's more important than who they add or remove to the board.

The other question is what happens to the pretense of "safety". The CEO explicitly said multiple times that he does not have unilateral control, that he is subordinate to the board and that the board's job was to remove him if it he was pursuing an unsafe course. Assuming he gets re-instated that would all be shown to be false.

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

#244
post #236
post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The new investors entered at a ~90B USD valuation for info. Microsoft I don't think they need it: Assuming they have the whole 90B USD to spend: it doesn't really make sense; they have full access to the source-code of OpenAI and datasets (because the whole training and runtime runs on their servers already). They could poach employees and make them better offers, and get away with a much more efficient cost-basis, +…

> They can replicate the tech internally without any doubt and without OpenAI. Would they be also able to keep up with development?

Would a 2.75 trillion dollar software company that has been around since the inception of the modern computer be able to keep up?

Probably. If the people running it and the shareholders were committed to keeping up and spending money to do so.

Re: OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

#245
post #186

Does the story of Sam raising funds from Saudi investors to start a AI Chip company have any relevance to what happened or is that just a nothing-burger? I don't any people on HN discussing it today

I've seen several people claim it is an "outrageous conflict". I'm not really seeing that.

Seems like a well done nothing burger with a side of french cries to me.

Re: OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plenty haven't left. Depending on which article you read it's between 3 and 5. Which is nothing for a company the size of OpenAI

Yeah man, whatever you say! :^) https://twitter.com/rowancheung/status/1726060441103958481

What is with the misinformation.

The original Verge article says (with no given sources): > missing a key 5PM PT deadline by which many OpenAI staffers were set to resign.

The tweet removes the qualifier: > The staff at OpenAI set a 5PM deadline for the entire board to resign, or else they quit and join Sam in his new company.

And you seem to parrot that point even though it is well past that deadline and no news of mass resignations

Re: OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

#248
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does that mean that the move of the board was actually good for openness of AI ?

The board were literally doing their job. Anyone claiming incompetence is just mistaken about the stated goal of openai: safe available agi for all. Throw in a huge investment, a 90 billion dollar valuation and a rockstar ceo. It’s pretty clear the court of public opinion is wrong about this case.

Competence is generally about effectiveness of execution, and less about intent. This was a foreseeable hot mess executed with staggering naïveté.

Re: OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

#249

This is why, when you claim to be running a non-profit to "benefit humankind," you shouldn't put all your resources into a for-profit subsidiary. Eventually, the for-profit arm, and its investors, will find its nonprofit parent a hindrance, and an insular board of directors won't stand a chance against corporate titans.

The problem, though, is without the huge commercial and societal success of ChatGPT, the AI Safety camp had no real leverage over the direction of AI advancement worldwide.

I mean, there are tons of think tanks, advocacy organizations, etc. that write lots of AI safety papers that nobody reads. I'm kind of piqued at the OpenAI board not because I think they had the wrong intentions, but because they failed to see that the "perfect is the enemy of the good."

That is, the board should have realistically known that there will be a huge arms race for AI dominance. Some would say that's capitalism - I say that's just human nature. So the board of OpenAI was in a unique position to help guide AI advancement in as safe a manner as possible because they had the most advanced AI system. They may have thought Altman was pushing too hard on the commercial side, but there are a million better ways they could have fought for AI safety without causing the ruckus they did. Now I fear that the "pure AI researchers" on the side of AI Safety within OpenAI (as that is what was being widely reported) will be even more diminished/sidelined. It really feels like this was a colossally sad own goal.

Re: OpenAI negotiations to reinstate Altman hit snag over board role

#250
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That defeats the purpose of having a board. Which is sometimes the desired outcome, of course, but if I were Microsoft I am not sure I’d want Sam in there with zero checks and balances. I also wouldn’t want Ilya in there without checks and balances, to be clear. So the challenge is identifying the right adults. I don’t think it’s realistic to expect that negotiation to complete successfully in the eyes of all parties…

If Sam returns he doesn't want to risk getting ousted again? So presumably he'll appoint people 100% loyal to him. Plenty of precedent for tech founders to have total board control. It will take a little while for Sam to consolidate power, but he won't forget what happened this weekend and he'll play the long game accordingly.

Big investors like Microsoft won't want a board that is utterly subservient to the CEO.
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