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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

bradmunchen.substack.com

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Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#251

Post by rsynnott »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #24

This seems kind of par for the course. What I find strange is that there are busses[1] operating economically with similar time of use (but not top speed) requirements. The whole "car parts scaled up to truck size" is super on brand for their chief technologist. I'm also seeing a bunch of Rivian trucks and Ford E150 lightnings on the roads around the Bay Area which, for me, doesn't bode well for the launch of the Tes…

Buses are much, much lighter than loaded semi trucks. Here's a large electric one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Dennis_Enviro400EV - it's only 11 tonnes. They also generally travel at low speeds, start and stop a lot (thus regenerative braking is very effective), and they don't require anything like the same range (the one I linked has a range of 260km, which is perfectly fine for a normal city bus duty cycle). They're a significantly easier problem.

That said, electric trucks are absolutely a thing; they're just made by BYD (and to some extent Volvo), not Tesla.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#252

Post by fastball »

jojobas wrote: post #239
fastball wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you believe a 200kWh battery to be impossible?

A 1.5-ton battery on a sport roadster? You tell me.

Nobody said it was intended to use the same battery chemistry as other vehicles.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#253

Post by _yb2s »

This is obviously a prototype and not a production vehicle, so issues like this aren't unexpected.

That said, I cannot wrap my head around some of these engineering decisions. It does seem like the engineers are fundamentally misunderstanding the problem itself, and this truck simply isn't engineered to work as a truck.

If car grade parts are really being used, that is wildly inappropriate and unsafe, for a vehicle that needs to control two orders of magnitude more weight down the road.

That said, it could actually be revolutionary to move some car tech into the truck space, if done properly with heavy duty parts. For example, an independent suspension can make the ride much smoother.... which could result in less driver fatigue, and less damage to cargo.

For example, traditionally nobody would ever consider a dual wishbone independent suspension for an offroad vehicle, but, many modern purpose engineered offroad vehicles such as the VW Touareg and Porsche Cayenne have proven themselves capable offroad (including winning many famous offroad competitions) with four wheel independent suspension. It is in no way a "car suspension," but a purpose engineered offroad truck dual wishbone suspension, and it works excellent. "Old timers" will dismiss these vehicles as just a lazy attempt to sell passengers cars as offroad vehicles to customers that never go offroad anyway, but the real world reliability and performance shows that to be an incorrect perspective.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#254

Post by pengaru »

reverse_no wrote: post #246
pengaru wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, in lieu of a forum implementation automating that, you can already scrutinize a submitter's submission history via their profile. In this particular case, it's their first and only submission, so what you're proposing would do absolutely nothing.

well, no. a reputation system could prevent poor predictors from hijacking threads, attenuate their moderation power, overall decrease the influence they have. and obviously that would take time to have an effect. im not sure how you could not understand that. i dont understand why you bring up reading peoples comment history. thats totally unrelated

> i dont understand why you bring up reading peoples comment history. thats totally unrelated

Comment history != submission history.

Maybe I just plain don't understand what you're on about at all.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#255

Post by _ea1k »

rootusrootus wrote: post #208
_ea1k wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Ford only sold ~3,700 Lightnings in October. I bet Tesla is selling CT at a much faster rate than that by February. Of course, that ultimately depends on price and what trims are available.

I won't be surprised if Tesla has not produced 3700 CTs by the end of 2024. Ignoring the question of how many real buyers exist, pricing, etc, producing them is a problem. Elon himself recently said mass production was farther off, as I recall, like 2025. Those nice big flat body panels don't make the truck easier to produce, but quite the opposite.

It seems like they are already producing >12/week. It won't take a lot of production expansion to hit a number like that. At the very least, they'll pass the Hummer EV.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#256

Post by _ea1k »

ShakataGaNai wrote: post #155
_ea1k wrote: post #7

It seems like the author has combined some fairly credible rumors with a lot of guesswork, some of which doesn't really make sense.

> great fortune to receive the details below, which were told to a trusted automotive source of mine by a PepsiCo employee who happened to have time for my friend’s questions I believe this is what they call, in the legal industry, "Hearsay". Pepsi person tells friend person who tells the author. A lot can get lost in that chain of telephone. But yea, you're right. A lot of it is kinda nonsense statements. Or it's ot…

> Where are the sources on this? If Tesla was actually getting subsidy to build these, it would be in the news.

I did a little digging and it does sound like Pepsi is taking advantage of subsidy programs. I didn't see any indication that they were Tesla specific, though, so presumably they could have bought any other electric semi with them.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#257

Post by wilg »

clouddrover wrote: post #245
dagw wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i simply tried to look up the number of trucks volvo and freightliner SAY they delivered As of February of this year Volvo say they've sold over 4300 electric trucks. https://www.volvotrucks.se/sv-se/news/press-releases/2023/fe... Others sites are claiming over 5000 by the end of 2023, but I can't find any numbers directly from Volvo

Here's one from June: https://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/news-stories/press-release... > Since Volvo Trucks started production of all-electric trucks in 2019, the company has sold nearly 5,000 electric trucks in 40 countries around the world. Volvo today offers the industry's widest product range with six electric models in series production that meet a broad range of needs for transport in and between cities. Globall…

ugh we are talking about SEMI TRUCKS

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#258

Post by wilg »

me_me_me wrote: post #241
wilg wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? General media vibes?

ugh... the general vibe of "X is ready for production, we will be delivering next year"... being said every year for 6 years now?

Yeah but did that happen?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#259

Post by mulmen »

Brian_K_White wrote: post #248
mulmen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My parents just went a week without natural gas. When the power goes out it’s rarely for that long and EVs and generators are alternate sources. Looks to me like electric is more redundant than gas.

You can't heat a house on backup electricity, unless it's in the form of an entirely separate full fat distribution along side the primary, the way the gas lines or oil trucks are along side the power lines. And this means diffent modes too, one up on poles, the other buried. Not both together and both subject to the same risks at the same time. Anything less, and you are losing something you currently have. Which is…

With a generator or an EV/powerwall a heat pump can keep at least part of the house warm in a power outage. When the gas goes out there’s no alternative. The furnace is just off. When the gas went out my parents survived on electric space heaters and blankets for a week.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#260

Post by clouddrover »

wilg wrote: post #257
clouddrover wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's one from June: https://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/news-stories/press-release... > Since Volvo Trucks started production of all-electric trucks in 2019, the company has sold nearly 5,000 electric trucks in 40 countries around the world. Volvo today offers the industry's widest product range with six electric models in series production that meet a broad range of needs for transport in and between cities. Globall…

ugh we are talking about SEMI TRUCKS

Brah, maybe you should try some WORRY BEADS. People find them relaxing.

Embrace the reality that Volvo builds lots of electric heavy vehicles. You'll feel better.

Hang in there. Tesla deprogramming takes patience and time.

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