The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess" • Hacker News Board

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#121

Post by Drblessing » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:42 AM UTC

> All Tesla Semis and other electric trucks are subsidized by California state and the Megacharger station alone cost around $6 million [these mega chargers can power up to 28,000 homes].

The average US household consumes around 10,649 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity per year, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). This translates to an average of about 888 kWh per month, or about 29.6 kWh per day.

Can these megacharger stations really output 828 mWh of power per day?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#122

Post by DaiPlusPlus » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:43 AM UTC

jcranmer wrote: post #81

DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US *needs* zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. (Disclaimer: Non-expert, but Tesla owner since Q1 2018) I think EV trucks, as a concept is fine, but battery-swapping makes much more sense than using a nonremovable battery-pack that's 5-10x the size of a sedan-sized battery-pack.

> Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US needs zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. Are you aware that the US has the largest rail network of any country in the world, almost the size of the next two (both of whom are geographically larger than the US) combined?

> Are you aware that the US has the largest rail network of any country in the world, almost the size of the next two (both of whom are geographically larger than the US) combined?

Well of course, the US is a big country - but the overall density of rail (both freight and passenger rail) is lacking compared to Europe (and China too, I think?). I live in the Seattle metro area where the major cities (Everett, Seattle, and Tacoma) do have adequate freight rail accessibility, but none of the smaller and medium sized towns and cities elsewhere in the metro have any kind of rail connection to that main west-coast rail corridor, so they're reliant on road trucks to move goods in/out of those larger cities.

...whereas my part of the north-west of the UK (where I try to spend a good chunk of the year, where-possible) has rail connections between practically every small town, even many (most?) hamlets. Even local supermarkets use the rail network: https://www.railfreight.com/railfreight/2022/01/21/tesco-and...

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#123

Post by mulmen » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:43 AM UTC

Brian_K_White wrote: post #26

candiddevmike wrote: post #2

> The constant use of the battery pack is unprecedented and is causing reliability problems for Tesla and other EV truck makers I don't understand why this is a surprise and why they think they can muscle through it. I didn't think our current battery technology is built for this scenario. > During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city This is my fear with ev…

Compounded by getting rid of natural gas for cooking and heating. It's fine to say that electric is simpler to deliver and more efficient in theory, but our grid is not even a fraction ready for that, and heat pumps and induction ranges are a whole order of magnitude up the tech ladder from boilers and gas stoves, and by going all electric you lose the multiple sources redundancy which is literally a life saver. I do…

My parents just went a week without natural gas. When the power goes out it’s rarely for that long and EVs and generators are alternate sources. Looks to me like electric is more redundant than gas.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#124

Post by cameronh90 » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:43 AM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #3

Why does anybody in the entire world want a semi with a 5 second 0-60?

Possibly not the buyers, but as someone who often gets stuck behind them struggling to overtake or accelerate on a hill, I wouldn’t mind.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#125

Post by ryaneager » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:44 AM UTC

jjulius wrote: post #57

wilg wrote: post #43

The author clearly has an angle here. Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. They've even said (in the Leno episode) they're going to rev the thing before going into full production. Plus battery degradation is well understood. Plus it's known there are multiple range editions of the Semi, they aren't all the 500mi version. Also obviously the taxpayers aren't paying for this vehicle program somehow. Wait a year…

>Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. Then stop marketing yourself as though you're not. I don't care if the little asterisk in the corner of your website makes it clear that "it's just beta mode, bro", they clearly prefer to put out an image that suggests otherwise.

I mean car companies have been releasing concept art of future vehicles since like forever so it’s pretty standard.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#126

Post by DennisP » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:44 AM UTC

So at first glance this is based on an anonymous second-hand source, and written on the substack of a self-described Tesla short seller. How seriously should we take this?

I'll note that in another article[1], the author claimed that the delay in GigaMexico would push the next-gen model to 2027 and possibly bankrupt the company. According to Isaacson's Musk bio, Tesla moved initial production of the vehicle to Austin so their new production line and their engineers for the car would be in the same place.

[1] https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/teslas-next-gen-model-may...

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#127

Post by Drblessing » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:45 AM UTC

wilg wrote: post #43

The author clearly has an angle here. Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. They've even said (in the Leno episode) they're going to rev the thing before going into full production. Plus battery degradation is well understood. Plus it's known there are multiple range editions of the Semi, they aren't all the 500mi version. Also obviously the taxpayers aren't paying for this vehicle program somehow. Wait a year…

Exactly right. We should be cheering and champion on the success of these very early and primitive electric trucks. Also, notice how much energy it takes to move them. The author states that the power station for these few trucks could power 28,000 homes. This is the reality of industry, it uses a lot of power. We need to keep increasing the electric grid for nuclear and renewables.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#128

Post by Solvency » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:45 AM UTC

jcranmer wrote: post #81

DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US *needs* zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. (Disclaimer: Non-expert, but Tesla owner since Q1 2018) I think EV trucks, as a concept is fine, but battery-swapping makes much more sense than using a nonremovable battery-pack that's 5-10x the size of a sedan-sized battery-pack.

> Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US needs zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. Are you aware that the US has the largest rail network of any country in the world, almost the size of the next two (both of whom are geographically larger than the US) combined?

And yet, full of problems, isn't it.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#129

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:46 AM UTC

ryaneager wrote: post #125

jjulius wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. Then stop marketing yourself as though you're not. I don't care if the little asterisk in the corner of your website makes it clear that "it's just beta mode, bro", they clearly prefer to put out an image that suggests otherwise.

I mean car companies have been releasing concept art of future vehicles since like forever so it’s pretty standard.

[deleted]

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#130

Post by dexwiz » Fri, Nov 17, 2023, 2:46 AM UTC

derekp7 wrote: post #98

enragedcacti wrote: post #73

> During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city [imagine what happens when 100% of ICE vehicles have switched over to BEV in California by 2035]. A little bit tangential, but 2035 marks the ban on new passenger ICE vehicles. Given the average age of cars in the US, California probably won't even be at 50% passenger BEVs by 2035, let alone 100% of ALL vehicles.…

My question is what happens to gas stations as the changeover is underway? They make razor thin margins and rely on selling a lot of gas to turn a profit, which leads me to believe there will start to be fewer gas stations even when only 20% of cars on the road are electric (just my conjecture, but it seems to make sense to me). Now as gas stations start to thin out, that would put a damper on people buying gas cars…

If EV companies get their way, we probably won’t be buying personal cars except as luxury or work items by 2035. Everything with be subscriptions, either leases, short term rentals, or taxis.