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280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

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Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#251

Post by cogman10 »

uoaei wrote: post #164
cogman10 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20k miles in 5 years of ownership? That's well below average mileage (13k miles for 1 year is average). But further, if you want to talk about lifecycle, then why not consider a used Model S (or other ev) with 20k miles? It's not like EVs suddenly explode and need to be junked after 20k miles. The CO2 payoff period for an EV is around 25k miles, after that every mile driven on an EV ends up being less emissions wise…

> That's well below average mileage Hence the emphasis here and in other comments about finding ways to use cars less. I diverted an entire vehicle from the dump rather than buying new and requiring additional CO2 emissions in that production process. It suits my lifestyle well. I could have bought a used EV but this car was free to me (after cost of spare parts) and I learned a lot about how to work on cars getting…

> Regarding payoff: My research says 5-8 years on average (12k miles per year) after accounting for production and emissions (generation for EV, gas for ICE), so I'm curious to know where you get your data.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7cfc

This is actually really common data. I'm curious to know where you got yours.

> I'd like to see empirical studies on this but I suspect the sample size of EVs with that kind of mileage is too small at this point.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/14/8-lessons-about-ev-battery-he...

> It's well known that EV batteries degrade faster than expected, aside from early year Prius hybrid and later Leaf batteries which seem to be holding up well for some reason. So even if the car lasts, you may have replaced the battery multiple times already.

Well known by who? Leaf batteries degraded fast because they had no active cooling mechanism. That changed in 2016, which is why later Leaf batteries have held up well. Any EV car you buy today that was manufactured in the last 7 years has active cooling. Leaf was one of the last to adopt it.

Anecdotally, I drive a 2018 model 3 with 120k miles on it. The battery has degraded by 5% (310 miles to 296).

> None of this even accounts for microplastic production from tire and road wear, which goes as the fourth power of the vehicle mass. EVs obviously on the losing side of that vs bicycles, ebikes, even small ICEs.

Agree. But I'm not sure that microplastic production is something to really be concerned with. Unless we are talking about transitioning to more public transport, it's a secondary issue vs CO2 production.

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#252

Post by radium3d »

uneekname wrote: post #228
radium3d wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haha fun, hey I snowboard for entire days so I do know that snow clothing is fantastic now, so I believe it. But still doesn't solve for the distance problem in our area. A lot of people commute a very long way and not everyone can work 5, or even 20 miles from their home with cost of living so high sadly. EV cars are fantastic for them.

Honest question, is an EV really less expensive than living closer to work for most people? I live in a city where rent is fairly high, and I'm fortunate enough to afford a comfortable apartment with a roommate. To buy an EV though (if I wanted one...), would be completely out of my budget. If the math works out for some people, they should do what's best for them. But I don't really think that is the case most of th…

Depends on budget I'm sure, but the prices are lowering fast. You can buy a used 2020 Model 3 from Tesla.com for $28,700 with 34,219 miles, including a 10k + 1 year extended general warranty, and the 5 yr + 100k mile battery + motor warranty. New 2023 is $36,650 minus $7500 and minus state incentives, so $29150 or less before tax.

Another option, a 2019 eGolf is $17,000 with 120 mile range used with 36900 miles and still has some warranty remaining on battery + drive train.

I think those are comparable to gas alternatives. If you factor in gas savings, the monthly payment starts to work out for a ton of long commuters. Then, once you pay off the loan it's insane how much you save. I pay $116/mo for insurance and $350/yr on reg for my 2019 model 3 now that I've been driving for the last 4.5 years. If you have to charge at superchargers it's less savings, but if you can charge in a garage or at home it's about $30-40/mo to charge vs $160-200 /mo I was paying in gas.

Moving closer to the city can cost $500+/mo more than living farther outside the city for a similar sqft place. Plus you get cleaner air, quieter environment away from the main city. Some people don't like city living.

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#253

Post by concordDance »

estebank wrote: post #179
thegrim22 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember when 20 years ago if anybody had doubts with the way things were heading we were told "there's no war on cars you conspiracy theorist, nobody's going to come for your cars you conspiracy theorist"? After 20 years they've made enough progress shaping the narrative that they no longer need to lie and hide their agenda they can just put it in the open.

The thing that continues to happen is that people living in rural towns think that cities changing their mobility priorities to decenter cars is a personal affront. People asking to properly account for the negative externalities of car ownership can be construed as a war on cars through taxation, or as a removal of a subsidy. The only difference is framing.

A big factor is that the urban population is much larger and tends to vote for things that make sense in their context, but any laws would also apply outside it.

So those in the countryside might be badly effected by a car ban imposed by urbanites.

It's a similar effect to the way policies tend to get made that are good for the middle class but bad for the poor.

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#254

Post by bluGill »

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #162
c22 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bicycles are like 98% in terms of distance/effort so even when you factor in the manufacture/materials it seems like it's pretty hard to improve on. When you account for calorie transport it's possible the e-bike comes out on top, especially if charged from a local renewable electricity source. []: https://pedalchile.com/blog/cycling-vs-walking

at a micro level that's probably true, but from a public policy perspective, I'm willing to bet that regular bikes effect to increase fitness probably saves more carbon in the long run (healthcare is pretty calorie intensive).

Most ebikes you have to pedal to make them go. Some just push the throttle, but most are motor assist but if you don't pedal you don't go. As such most ebikes give the same fitness benefit but let you go faster (read farther). My ebike almost forces me to work harder than the regular bike as because it is heavy it feels like it doesn't coast as nice as the regular bike, and so I'm pedaling more. (part of this is probably I'm going faster and so wind resistance is lowing me down more - but to me it feels like I have to work harder to make the ebike work, in return I go farther on it)

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#256

Post by cedws »

FredPret wrote: post #232
cedws wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are selfish and DGAF. They will continue to buy the latest and biggest Range Rovers and Ford trucks (pedestrian death machines) to take their kids to school because they desperately need to signal how well off they are. Cars are a disgustingly polluting outlet for people to show off. IMO we should be banning big cars, possibly even legislating new cars are no bigger than a Japanese "Kei" car. Speed restriction…

[flagged]

Didn't say anything about nobody being allowed cars.

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#257

Post by simmanian »

ProllyInfamous wrote: post #237
DanTheManPR wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a class 1, so it will assist up to 20mph. I typically cruise at around 15mph on my own (I'm in a similar weight class as a rider). For getting around my town, trips are not much longer than my car.

>assist up to 20mph (I'm in a similar [250lb] weight class as a rider) So, how does it do on the occassional hills of a Chattanooga (e.g.)? I'm about to visit my local store, which has one in stock, available today.

Not sure how things are in Chattanooga, but you will still have to exert yourself to climb hills, just way less than before. Also, REI lets you test drive these for free, so I would definitely try it out before buying!

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#258

Post by TheGRS »

estebank wrote: post #209
DoneWithAllThat wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that continues to happen is urban residents with limited understanding of the world outside their bubble think a future without cars is anything but a laughably naive fantasy driven by an entirely imaginary utopian ideal.

A future with significantly reduced car traffic in cities ? It's perfectly possible. Cars will never completely disappear, only someone that hasn't thought about the problem or that is building a straw man would say that. Car ownership in the US is ~90% (more than one per adult). In The Netherlands it is ~50%. They still have a car per family for longer trips, but they don't need them for every trip, so they use them…

I would venture that if people actually tried living in a neighborhood that has ample foot traffic access they would love it. You don't need to be in the "city" proper, just a neighborhood with some corner store and a public park nearby. This is not a wild concept to implement at the city planning level at all.

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#259

Post by TheGRS »

Avshalom wrote: post #243
DoneWithAllThat wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing that continues to happen is urban residents with limited understanding of the world outside their bubble think a future without cars is anything but a laughably naive fantasy driven by an entirely imaginary utopian ideal.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_United_S... That bubble is 80% of the country.

Hey that 20% is what they call "real America".

Re: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars

#260

Post by jpatt »

tfrutuoso wrote: post #172
camgunz wrote: post #83

I've said it before and I'll say it again: building the future around cars of any kind is completely unsustainable. We cannot reproduce the rates of rich world car ownership in the developing world without mass catastrophe (raw materials/labor needed for construction and maintenance, raw materials/labor/space needed for roads and parking lots, literal tons of waste--batteries, tires, steel, plastic, foam--, energy ne…

That's very elitist. Not everyone lives in large cities with whole mass transit systems or works the usual 9-5. Even in large urban areas it's tricky to get around past a certain time. I remember working unexpected shifts and later staring at closed metro stations, having to walk in the rain to get home. No thanks. Also, some people like cars. Deal with it, i'm not ditching for an e-bike or whatever. An electric moto…

Globally, your stance is very elitist. Only about 18% of the world has a car.

https://www.pd.com.au/blogs/how-many-cars-in-the-world/

North America is already auto-dependent and EVs are an important piece of the puzzle for that region. Their point is that EVs won’t possibly work resource or cost-wise when that 82% inevitably gets richer and asks, “what about me?”

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