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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

bradmunchen.substack.com

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Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#221

Post by avar »

metadat wrote: post #60
schneems wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first time I saw a cyber truck on the road in Austin I literally laughed out loud. It was that startling. I’m sure that will fade, but it’s a very comical first impression.

Yes, 100% with you. The cybertruck is the ugliest, most offensive looking car I've ever seen. I also LOL'd. My previous comment at the time: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37935293

If you're buying a truck as a fashion accessory you'll care about the look, for anyone else being able to weld or bolt stuff to a sturdy stainless steel frame is a feature.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#222

Post by mrDmrTmrJ »

metadat wrote: post #60
schneems wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first time I saw a cyber truck on the road in Austin I literally laughed out loud. It was that startling. I’m sure that will fade, but it’s a very comical first impression.

Yes, 100% with you. The cybertruck is the ugliest, most offensive looking car I've ever seen. I also LOL'd. My previous comment at the time: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37935293

I saw one driving down El Camino (Palo Alto CA) and thought it looked great.

Respectfully, what generation are you? (Approximately how old are you?)

I ask as there are really big difference in how it appeals to different demographics. And all the guys who saw the vehicle with me thought it looked really good. (Admittedly we're former engineering students, so your milage may very...)

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#223

Post by lucideer »

jjulius wrote: post #114
enragedcacti wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the big mistake isn't missing "passenger", its claiming that 100% of vehicles on the road will be BEV when the regulation says 100% of sales will be BEV. The average age of cars on the road is about 10 years so a substantial number of vehicles will still be ICE in California in 2035.

Eh, I got the word wrong (switch it to "sales") but it doesn't really change my point.

The sentence is talking about full switchover- that doesn't happen with sales bans. It's not a missing word, no matter what way you want to try and frame it. The sentence is written as intended.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#224

Post by schneems »

mrDmrTmrJ wrote: post #222
metadat wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, 100% with you. The cybertruck is the ugliest, most offensive looking car I've ever seen. I also LOL'd. My previous comment at the time: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37935293

I saw one driving down El Camino (Palo Alto CA) and thought it looked great. Respectfully, what generation are you? (Approximately how old are you?) I ask as there are really big difference in how it appeals to different demographics. And all the guys who saw the vehicle with me thought it looked really good. (Admittedly we're former engineering students, so your milage may very...)

I have a mechanical engineering degree, but IDK why that’s relevant.

I demographically live in a state with a LOT of trucks and it sticks out, not in a good way.

I say this as someone who loves weird car designs. I’m on /r/weirdwheels and I genuinely think the BMW i3 looks fun.

I’m okay with funny looking cars that are self aware (like a Prius with a “cool Prius said no one” sticker). But the cyber truck isn’t that, it’s taking itself too seriously it’s trying too hard. Which makes the dissonance funny.

I respect your opinion is different, I’m asking you to respect my lived experience too. I guess I’m just not their target audience.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#225

Post by rgmerk »

candiddevmike wrote: post #2

> The constant use of the battery pack is unprecedented and is causing reliability problems for Tesla and other EV truck makers I don't understand why this is a surprise and why they think they can muscle through it. I didn't think our current battery technology is built for this scenario. > During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city This is my fear with ev…

This is a very easily solved problem.

Right now people are buying charging systems that do things like only charge when there’s a surplus of self-generated rooftop solar, or offer a big discount on EV charging if you’re prepared to have it interrupted at peak times.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#226

Post by ajross »

pengaru wrote: post #173
DennisP wrote: post #126

So at first glance this is based on an anonymous second-hand source, and written on the substack of a self-described Tesla short seller. How seriously should we take this? I'll note that in another article[1], the author claimed that the delay in GigaMexico would push the next-gen model to 2027 and possibly bankrupt the company. According to Isaacson's Musk bio, Tesla moved initial production of the vehicle to Austin…

Just because it's from a self-described short seller doesn't mean it's not factually true. Short sellers obviously are incentivized to be uncharitable and focus on the negatives, but that also serves to bring the negatives to light where they might otherwise stay buried. We benefit from hearing both sides, especially if we're holding TSLA or considering trading.

> Just because it's from a self-described short seller doesn't mean it's not factually true.

"Not provably false" isn't the standard for believing anything either. Claims require evidence. Evidence requires corroboration, and where that's not possible it at the very least requires trust. Neither is present here.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#227

Post by thelastgallon »

thsksbd wrote: post #214
thelastgallon wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a lot easier than you think. Just like trains, but on roads. The highway where trucks work like electric trains: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3P_S7pL7Yg And, there is electrification happening along highways, producing energy. German highway PV could generate up to 200 TWh a year: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/11/german-highway-pv-cou... Also, battery swapping will become a thing. You don't have to haul…

This is about large battery powered EVs, not grid powered ones. Also, it doesnt matter if you can swap a battery, or charge a fixed one in a microsecond. the problem is the opportunity cost of using a lot of battery to electrify one vehicle instead of hybridizing many more EVs by taking away batteries from hybrids are bad.

Thanks for the explanation. Curious if there are any truck manufacturers making hybrids? Is there a Prius equivalent of trucks?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#228

Post by runako »

wilg wrote: post #191
pclmulqdq wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Order now, you get the truck in 2 years" - Elon Musk 6 years ago.

They didn't take orders/deposits until 2022! Also, who cares? Sometimes products take longer than usual. Especially ones that have never been done before, like a practical electric semi truck for chrissake! Plus, they also had to move a lot of people to rework existing models to accommodate supply chain issues from Covid for like several years.

> ones that have never been done before

BYD has shipped tens of thousands of EV semi trucks, starting in 2018, approximately 5 years ago. This is something that absolutely has been done before, and is available for delivery today.

BYD is the second-largest manufacturer of BEVs and the largest manufacturer of the category that comprises PHEVs and BEVs. The company is not well-known in America, but Warren Buffet invested in the company way back in 2008.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#229

Post by runako »

wilg wrote: post #193
jojobas wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can cheer on something that actually works, like Freightliner or Volvo.

Freightliner has delivered like 20 trucks I think, same as Tesla. And Volvo has possibly not delivered any?

Go with BYD, they have delivered tens of thousands of electric semis to customers.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38299998

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#230

Post by wilg »

runako wrote: post #228
wilg wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They didn't take orders/deposits until 2022! Also, who cares? Sometimes products take longer than usual. Especially ones that have never been done before, like a practical electric semi truck for chrissake! Plus, they also had to move a lot of people to rework existing models to accommodate supply chain issues from Covid for like several years.

> ones that have never been done before BYD has shipped tens of thousands of EV semi trucks, starting in 2018, approximately 5 years ago. This is something that absolutely has been done before, and is available for delivery today. BYD is the second-largest manufacturer of BEVs and the largest manufacturer of the category that comprises PHEVs and BEVs. The company is not well-known in America, but Warren Buffet invest…

BYD does make electric trucks of various kinds, most are not semi trucks. They also make electric semi trucks but it seems like less than about 200 have been delivered, and starting last year, in 2022. So these are vehicle programs happening at the same time.
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