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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

bradmunchen.substack.com

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Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#81

Post by jcranmer »

DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #48
jojobas wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains.

Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US *needs* zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. (Disclaimer: Non-expert, but Tesla owner since Q1 2018) I think EV trucks, as a concept is fine, but battery-swapping makes much more sense than using a nonremovable battery-pack that's 5-10x the size of a sedan-sized battery-pack.

> Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US needs zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions.

Are you aware that the US has the largest rail network of any country in the world, almost the size of the next two (both of whom are geographically larger than the US) combined?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#82

Post by sidibe »

toddmorey wrote: post #72

As the article mentions the program might have been a little smoke & mirrors for the stock price, it reminded me the roadster they drove out from inside the semi during the launch took preorders and still has very little chance of ever seeing production.

Smoke and mirrors is very common at Tesla. The funniest one was their battery swap event, I think it actually got them some extra government funding. They supposedly demo'd it on stage... but didn't think to set up cameras at an angle showing the actual swap?

Then of course there's the "driver is only there for legal reasons" video attempted over multiple days including an accident.

It's interesting how they keep getting away with it compared to Nikola

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#83

Post by lucideer »

p1esk wrote: post #80
enragedcacti wrote: post #73

> During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city [imagine what happens when 100% of ICE vehicles have switched over to BEV in California by 2035]. A little bit tangential, but 2035 marks the ban on new passenger ICE vehicles. Given the average age of cars in the US, California probably won't even be at 50% passenger BEVs by 2035, let alone 100% of ALL vehicles.…

Why is it troubling?

Because it's obvious enough that those who aren't experts in that field can easily point it out. That a supposed expert in the field missed it raises concerns by proxy about their expertise in general.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#84

Post by nblgbg »

These two are interesting

>>>The constant use of the battery pack is unprecedented and is causing reliability problems for Tesla and other EV truck makers [similar claims coming from Uber drivers who use their Teslas over 300 miles per day, i.e., their batteries are dying quickly.

Meaning the batteries are not meant to use more than few hours per day because they heat up ?

>>>PepsiCo did a 500-mile trip with the Tesla Semi from California to Phoenix, but it was just for PR purposes. The batteries completely burned out, which is why on PR trips like this, they bring three Tesla Semis, with two being towed on a diesel Semi truck, only to be swapped out when the battery dies the other two Semis on the 500-mile drive

As usual a demo product like other EV semis ?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#85

Post by rr808 »

tonmoy wrote: post #19
thsksbd wrote: post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

Hydrogen.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#86

Post by ChuckMcM »

rootusrootus wrote: post #33
ChuckMcM wrote: post #24

This seems kind of par for the course. What I find strange is that there are busses[1] operating economically with similar time of use (but not top speed) requirements. The whole "car parts scaled up to truck size" is super on brand for their chief technologist. I'm also seeing a bunch of Rivian trucks and Ford E150 lightnings on the roads around the Bay Area which, for me, doesn't bode well for the launch of the Tes…

Tesla just makes the biggest headlines. Freightliner had an electric class 8 truck in production before the Tesla. And they're not the only other company doing it. I trust Freightliner to make a big truck a lot more than I'd trust Tesla.

230 max miles though, and 90 minute recharge. With range margin that is 2 ninety minute stops for a 500 mile day. But I would certainly agree that 230 mile range, reliably day in and day out would be better than 500 mile range "sometimes" And low reliability. Because trucks are less size constrained I was hoping flow batteries would have a play here but alas, no progress on that in the last 5 years.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#87

Post by MadnessASAP »

ReactiveJelly wrote: post #46
thsksbd wrote: post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

Priuses manage to get 50 mpg highway without depleting charge or plugging in but I guess the same optimizations can't work on a big diesel as on a little gas engine?

Prius's are city cars, city driving has widely varying loads which are inherently awful for combustion engine efficiencies. The hybrid drivetrain allows the engine to stay within its optimal efficiency range which has a huge impact on mileage.

Compare this too semis which spend most of their life on the highway with drivetrains optimized almost exclusively for constant highway speeds. There is far less gains to be made converting to a hybrid system.

A Prius without a hybrid drivetrain and with an engine optimized for 25 mph driven constantly at 25 mph would actually exceed the standard Prius's mileage since it doesn't have to carry batteries, generators or electric motors.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#88

Post by Robotbeat »

vehemenz wrote: post #50
protastus wrote: post #30

It's a prototype at the edge of what state of the art battery technology allows. Kudos to Tesla for having the guts and endurance to try. This is relevant for Tesla and for the industry.

That is certainly one way to spin incompetent product design.

Incompetent? Show me a battery-electric semi truck with greater range.

When you're actually doing something barely possible, it's hard.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#89

Post by dolphinsea74 »

austinkhale wrote: post #64

Not sure it's worth putting a lot of weight behind an anonymous source when it directly contradicts a lot of what Pepsi has said publicly[1]. There is a whole movement to short Tesla and a lot of blogs & social media purposefully put out a lot of FUD that makes it difficult to understand what are real critiques vs market manipulation. I'm sure the Semi program isn't perfect but the blog post seems... biased. [1] http…

[flagged]

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#90

Post by adfiogn1i2o »

borner791 wrote: post #55
ReactiveJelly wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Priuses manage to get 50 mpg highway without depleting charge or plugging in but I guess the same optimizations can't work on a big diesel as on a little gas engine?

Prius is just a little gas engine in a little and aerodynamic car. They can have a tiny gas engine because the electric helps acceleration from a standstill. The batteries are just weight on the highway

The Prius is not especially small. The engine is 2.0 liters, which is not small at all.

It is much more sophisticated than you let on.

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