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Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

pressdemocrat.com

31–40 of 52 posts

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#31
CA is insanely expensive, however I left AZ and came here to a very beautiful city. I don’t regret it, but I won’t be here long term. It truly is a place for the ultra wealthy, at least where I’m at.

My partner and I bring in around $350k and it’s barely cutting it here

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#32

Makes sense since Texas is akin to California with regards to restrictions where you can carry a firearm. Namely gun free zone signs carrying the force of a felony preventing carry pretty much anywhere slightly urbanized. In for a penny, in for a pound as they say. FL and AZ are far less punitive in this regard.

A very US comment and surreal for the rest of the world, for most people in the most of the developed world this doesn't come in top 1500 priorities during any phase of life. If we talk about picking a place to live, why not choose something that is not completely FUBAR that you don't actually have to worry about such things? That isn't a mark of high quality life.

Agreed. I live in US and it’s so bizarre that people walk around with rifles on their back.

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I'm not. I just saw first hand how you call the cops and no one comes, can't be bothered. Don't leave anything in your car, don't ride your bike or get mugged. Drugged out zombies. I'm good. We were there in and out over a 5y span and I've had enough. How anyone convinces themselves that this is normal.. has Stockholm syndrome. Since we arrived as foreigners, the locals all have been telling a well rehearsed line of…

Normal for any major urban area where one can live outside year round. Prob won’t find too many homeless encampments in Chicago for some reason.

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#34
Note that the only of the three changes mentioned in the headline that exceeds the margin of error on the measurement is the increase in California->Florida migration. The decrease in California -> Texas is ~5,000 on a measure with a margin of error of ~9,900, the increase in California -> Arizona is ~5,000 on a measure with a margin of error of ~8,900. [0]

[0] From the Census department source data: state-to-state migration figures: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/geograp...

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#35
post #23

Regardless of the numbers referenced in the article, the bottom line is people are continuously leaving CA and NY for other states. Florida's real estate is by no means less expensive than CA or NY. It seems rather obvious the continued outflow from CA and NY is CA's and NY's suffocating regulatory and tax environment.

Florida's real estate is definitely cheaper than CA or NY. Median price is 1/2 of CA and 3/4 of NY. Plus much lower taxes.

What you are failing to factor is the the ancillary costs associated with owning real estate in Florida, namely the cost of insurance. Also, Miami and Tampa are seeing the latest influx of new residents where the average price of real estate dwarfs other markets in Florida but is on par with NY and CA.

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#36

Seems like mostly statistical noise

Literally so: 2 of the 3 changes they highlight are "movement" within the margin of error on the estimates (in both cases, only a bit over half of the MOE). So just from sampling error, there is very low confidence that a change in the direction stated in the headline actually occurred.

A responsible headline would be "More Californians moving to Florida", without mentioning the "changes" in California-to-Texas/Arizona flows, which from the data cannot reliably be said to have occurred.

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#37
post #3

Wild how many words have been written about how the largest state in the union sends more people to other states.

Especially since it has always been this way. A decade ago it was people to Seattle and Portland. And it also works in reverse, but since every other state is much smaller, no stories are written. Both of my neighbors have recently left Texas to relocate to the Bay Area.

> Especially since it has always been this way. A decade ago it was people to Seattle and Portland.

California has lost people to net domestic migration for a few decades (with lower income workers and retirees flowing out and, on average, higher wage workers flowing in at slightly lower rates from other states), IIRC, but until recently it was making up for it between natural growth and international in-migration [0] (the latter also often of higher wage workers); international migration tailed off just before (and even more with) the pandemic, which shifted things to a net loss of population.

[0] Carefully not saying "immigration" because a H-1B admissions, an important part of this, aren't immigrants, even though they may later become immigrants. But its still in-migration of population, regardless of status.

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#38
This thread won't end well... People on both sides has pretty strong opinions about the California culture. And if the problems don't bother them that much, they defend it. But the same problems might be dealbreakers to others, and those will heavily criticize it. And I doubt there is an objective truth here since it is about people's perception of a human culture, both are literally definition of subjective.

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#39
post #20

As an outsider, for me the interesting part is if those who move out will be able to replicate SV. People like to claim that Europe missed on tech because of regulations but there’s no EU regulations in TX or FL or AZ or anywhere outside of Europe and yet no successful replications so far. Many places are actively trying to replicate it, Silicon Valley of this Silicon Valley of that and no one ever came close. It wou…

Historically, the outmigration has been lower-income than the in-migration (lower wage workers and retirees are major subsets). They aren't going to replicate Silicon Valley, they are leaving largely because they are the people who weren't (or were done) participating in the successful segments of industry driving California prices higher, and are moving for lower prices.

Re: Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ

#40
post #3

Wild how many words have been written about how the largest state in the union sends more people to other states.

[The net migration shows a remarkably negative trend.](https://assets.site-static.com/userFiles/1102/image/Californ...)
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