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Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

electrek.co

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Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#121

Post by throw_pm23 »

thelastgallon wrote: post #99
macNchz wrote: post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Owning a gas car will become inconvenient and expensive very soon. The number of gas stations has gone down from 202K to 115K, ~50% down[1]. Gas stations make very little money on gas, most of their income is from people buying cigarette, lotteries, lotto, beer, beverages, and some trinkets in the store. All profits are at the margins. When foot traffic drops, even by 10 - 20%, gas stations are not viable. They can i…

Good observations (and relevant username).

Just pointing out that people spending 15-20 mins at stations is not unrealistic. At least near motorways, gas stations already position themselves as a place where you can do your regular rest during a long drive, with diners, cafes, children's playgrounds, etc., some drivers even catch a quick nap in the parking lot -- this is how it looks in Europe at least.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#123

Post by lb1lf »

mtlmtlmtlmtl wrote: post #52
ada1981 wrote: post #34

Someone remind me again on the stats of battery toxicity and pollution vs fossil fuels? Also, is all of Norway energy produced by wind or solar? Or does this just move the tail pipe and introduce more toxic battery waste?

The vast majority of Norway's power is hydro power with some wind and solar. There's a single coal plant on Svalbard which is about to be shut down, and oil/gas is used mainly by the oil industry to generate power for their own use on-site. Though this is also being phased out in the future.

-Actually, I believe the Svalbard coal power plant was shut down earlier this week; the plant in question now runs diesel generators instead. While not very green, it is slightly better than burning coal.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#124

Post by seltzered_ »

It may be worth considering that while Norway's 'motor fuel sales' went down supposedly their 'oil consumption' use per EIA has remained flat (and supposedly gone up recently) - see this chart by Nate Hagens in https://twitter.com/NJHagens/status/1669072120939159553 which is figure 2 in https://fictitiouscapital.substack.com/p/a-sticky-situation-... which says "But look at the interesting case study of Norway, where oil consumption has remained flat (it has one of the highest per capita oil consumption levels globally — 3x China & 10x India) despite EVs being 90%+ of new car sales and 98% electricity coming from hydropower."

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#125

Post by jliptzin »

thelastgallon wrote: post #99
macNchz wrote: post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Owning a gas car will become inconvenient and expensive very soon. The number of gas stations has gone down from 202K to 115K, ~50% down[1]. Gas stations make very little money on gas, most of their income is from people buying cigarette, lotteries, lotto, beer, beverages, and some trinkets in the store. All profits are at the margins. When foot traffic drops, even by 10 - 20%, gas stations are not viable. They can i…

Yea, exactly, I have been telling friends to think hard about buying a new ICE vehicle for this reason. Gas isn’t a utility like electric or water. Stations are all privately owned, as soon as it’s no longer profitable to operate, it’ll shut down. If you’re in a small town and it’s the only one, sorry, you now have to drive extra distance to get to the next one. The whole thing will collapse like a house of cards relatively soon and the bag holders will be people with ICE cars that they can only sell for scrap metal.

I guess if you have to, then leasing is the only reasonable way to go?

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#126

Post by conjecTech »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #120

The headline doesn't follow from the actual data (par for the course with electrek I guess). Here is a graph from the source used in TFA. Now look at the sum of gasoline, diesel and biofuels, and tell me that's "cratering". https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/img/NORenergy_road.png

The table they pull that data from is annual and only has info through 2022[1]. It's not useful for saying anything about the year-over-year monthly number being discussed. The chart showing monthly sales of road petroleum show a consistent 5% annual drawdown, which is proportional to how quickly the fleet is transitioning[2].

[1] https://www.ssb.no/en/statbank/table/11561 [2] https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/img/fuelsales.png

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#127

Post by ianferrel »

vel0city wrote: post #71
daveFNbuck wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think most people make a special trip just to get gas. It's usually a quick added stop along the way of another trip, which is less of a nuisance than having to make two small walks to move and plug/unplug your car.

But if there's no longer any gas stations on any of my usual trips, it'll become a special trip. Also it's not fun having to make your trip even longer stopping to get gas. I'd prefer to just leave the house with a full tank every time.

Even if like 80% of gas stations close, the remaining 20% will be situated along major transportation arteries. I expect there will be a gas station somewhere along someone's regular weekly driving route for all but the most remote dwellers.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#128

Post by macNchz »

billfor wrote: post #42
macNchz wrote: post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Where do you see convenient charging stations? Tesla shows 4 superchargers in all of Manhattan and 3 in Brooklyn, not including 3rd party stations that can take 2 hours to charge the car. What is the population of Manhattan and Brooklyn?

There are curbside charging locations popping up around my neighborhood and most parking garages seem to have some charging capacity now. There certainly isn’t enough infrastructure for the whole population of car owners to go electric tomorrow, but it’s interesting to see big changes happening in real time.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#129

Post by seltzered_ »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #120

The headline doesn't follow from the actual data (par for the course with electrek I guess). Here is a graph from the source used in TFA. Now look at the sum of gasoline, diesel and biofuels, and tell me that's "cratering". https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/img/NORenergy_road.png

Seconding your point & The headline is on 'motor fuel oil', not overall oil consumption for Norway

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#130

Post by jliptzin »

fbdab103 wrote: post #39
TheRealPomax wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you have to drive 15 minutes there and 15 minutes back, that's not faster than a fast-charge top-up at the fast charge point down the street, though. There's a critical density below which if you have a charge point nearby the nuisance of "going out for gas" and not being able to do anything else during that time isn't worth it compared to plugging in your car, and then just walking away for an hour. Especially if…

Few people make a special trip to fill an ICE car. It is almost always a side trip on the way to another activity.

Few people today
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