Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research • Hacker News Board

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#161

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 9:26 PM UTC

cbsmith wrote: post #150

ilamont wrote: post #6

Long before Covid there was pushback against these projects, particularly near population centers. Boston University built its National Emerging Infectious Diseases center right in the middle of the city, which was approved by local regulators ( https://www.bu.edu/articles/2017/neidl-bsl-4-lab-approved ) but strongly criticized by neighbors when they learned that Ebola and Marburg were studied there. Covid research a…

NIMBYism isn't exactly a good measure of whether something should or shouldn't be done.

[deleted]

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#162

Post by cbsmith » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 9:27 PM UTC

dist-epoch wrote: post #130

xracy wrote: post #16

I get that there are a lot of arm-chair experts who think this was a lab-leak. But we're making many large jumps here from: Was this created in a lab? Was this leaked from a lab? Is there something inherently dangerous about studying viruses in labs? Full NIMBY. The positive externalities of this are good jobs around virology study to try and prevent the next pandemic. But we're just leaning super hard into fear-mong…

How exactly did the world-leading research institute in coronaviruses, the one from Wuhan, help in the pandemic?

You might expect they'd have contributed a lot, what with the being shut down and everyone and everything involved being subject to endless accusations and calls for investigations.

Now tell me, how did all of those accusations and investigations help in the pandemic?

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#163

Post by someuser2345 » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 9:28 PM UTC

jrm4 wrote: post #71

xracy wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's literally an alternative proposed leak method that is the current consensus (market) that is more believable than the lab-leak theory.

This is the wet market theory, yes? I presume these wet markets exist in places other than Wuhan. Yeah, nah, that one is only "more believable" propped up by e.g. xenophobia and racism. Falls way too neatly into "look at the weird Chinese people they eat bats" or whatever. Pretty flimsy compared to "lab that literally does this kind of virus all day."

It's also a more convenient theory for the Chinese government. Its much less embarrassing to say "The virus came from rednecks eating weird things" than it is to say "The virus came from a government funded lab".

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#164

Post by someuser2345 » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 9:29 PM UTC

tmaly wrote: post #19

xracy wrote: post #16

I get that there are a lot of arm-chair experts who think this was a lab-leak. But we're making many large jumps here from: Was this created in a lab? Was this leaked from a lab? Is there something inherently dangerous about studying viruses in labs? Full NIMBY. The positive externalities of this are good jobs around virology study to try and prevent the next pandemic. But we're just leaning super hard into fear-mong…

I have not kept up with this topic. What does the evidence point to? Has any new evidence surfaced in the past year?

I don't think we'll ever find out. There's no incentive for the Chinese government to investigate this issue, and plenty of incentives to keep it hidden.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#165

Post by improv » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 9:29 PM UTC

cbsmith wrote: post #150

ilamont wrote: post #6

Long before Covid there was pushback against these projects, particularly near population centers. Boston University built its National Emerging Infectious Diseases center right in the middle of the city, which was approved by local regulators ( https://www.bu.edu/articles/2017/neidl-bsl-4-lab-approved ) but strongly criticized by neighbors when they learned that Ebola and Marburg were studied there. Covid research a…

NIMBYism isn't exactly a good measure of whether something should or shouldn't be done.

NIMBYism != People being concerned about their neighbors possessing weapons of mass destruction/super viruses capable of killing them and millions/billions of other people.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#166

Post by RandomLensman » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 9:30 PM UTC

mardifoufs wrote: post #157

RandomLensman wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who are you talking to? No-one I speak to in Europe cares but some US media do, though. Some niche circles might in Europe, but then there are hobbyist for everything.

https://pro.morningconsult.com/instant-intel/covid-19-lab-le... There you go, France, the UK, Italy and Spain all have a higher proportion (or even a majority) of people believing in the lab leak theory than in the US. Germany is very close too.

No-one cares (it's a non-topic) so not sure what a survey even means then (and the survey is 6 months old).

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#167

Post by nvm0n2 » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 9:46 PM UTC

cbsmith wrote: post #140

nvm0n2 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that sort of GOF research is at the top of the list of GOF utility According to the virologists who do it, not anyone else. Virologists conspicuously had no role in fighting COVID and didn't seem to contribute any particular knowledge to the NPIs or vaccines.

> According to the virologists who do it, not anyone else. That's not true. > Virologists conspicuously had no role in fighting COVID and didn't seem to contribute any particular knowledge to the NPIs or vaccines. I can't imagine your basis for saying this. Virologists isolated the signature genetic sequences for COVID-19. That was the basis for the development of testing & vaccines for COVID-19 (...and if you think…

Sequencing is something done by many types of biologist, there's nothing special about virologists there.

No, this is a profession that really should not exist at all. GoF was banned in the past without consequence beyond causing them to engage in coverups of their own psychotic experimentations, it can be banned again with no loss to humanity. COVID simply wouldn't have happened if these experiments were banned.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#168

Post by nextaccountic » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 9:46 PM UTC

shadowgovt wrote: post #64

fabian2k wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certain gain of function experiments, e.g. modifying an animal virus to be able to infect humans could create viruses that might behave very similar to SARS-CoV2 if leaked. We now know more about the potential consequences of such a leak, we have a full-blown pandemic as a benchmark. If those experiments have a chance to repeat a similar pandemic, I don't think any of them are worth that risk.

Unfortunately, that sort of GOF research is at the top of the list of GOF utility. Because animal virii making the jump to humans is the risk factor the international epidemiology community tries to protect against, for the very reasons you've highlighted: the harm when it occurs and the frequency with which it occurs (rare, but often enough to create a once-a-century firestorm, at least). Spanish Flu was likely an a…

> HIV was a multi-virus infection followed by an animal jump

Can you expand on the multi-virus infection thing?

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#169

Post by diogenes4 » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 9:59 PM UTC

cbsmith wrote: post #150

ilamont wrote: post #6

Long before Covid there was pushback against these projects, particularly near population centers. Boston University built its National Emerging Infectious Diseases center right in the middle of the city, which was approved by local regulators ( https://www.bu.edu/articles/2017/neidl-bsl-4-lab-approved ) but strongly criticized by neighbors when they learned that Ebola and Marburg were studied there. Covid research a…

NIMBYism isn't exactly a good measure of whether something should or shouldn't be done.

Please do not conflate people concerned about epidemics with narcissistic assholes.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#170

Post by anon291 » Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 10:16 PM UTC

xracy wrote: post #36

anon291 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your argument here boils down to 'we shouldn't care if it's created in a lab, because even if it were, the benefits of studying viruses outweigh the risk'. It's funny that you accuse others of being 'armchair experts', when you yourself are being an armchair expert on the topic of the risk/benefit analysis of gain-of-function research. Moreover, your idea is even more dangerous because it necessitates that there will…

You're misrepresenting my argument at the top. My argument here is "We don't know that this was created in a lab, and it's unreasonable to assume it was when we have evidence that it wasn't created in a lab." It's even more unreasonable to create policy based on this wild speculation. > How is anyone supposed to prove or even provide evidence of such a thing if China doesn't cooperate? And that's really the reason th…

> My argument here is "We don't know that this was created in a lab, and it's unreasonable to assume it was when we have evidence that it wasn't created in a lab."

Unless something major has changed, I don't believe we have firm evidence either way.

> Difficulty in obtaining evidence doesn't change the burden of proof from "proving a positive" to "disproving a negative".

When difficulty obtaining evidence has to do with geopolitics, rather than science, then yes it becomes very diferent. Because geopolitics, and people, you can convince, investigate, and hold accountable. Science and nature less so. That's why this is important.

Anyway, your entire purpose making your argument is to question the need for any investigation it seems. That is why it seemingly excuses the fact that we have not actually investigated the lab in any meaningful way. I don't believe this is acceptable.