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Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

denverite.com

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Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#151
post #143
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we have decided life's necessities should be sold to you with a healthy profit margin First, profit margins on things like groceries are pretty small. That's why grocery store chains are heavily consolidated: the only way to make a decent overall income in this business is with volume. Second, both basic economics and all human history teach us that the best way to maximize the quantity and quality of "life's neces…

GP did not articulate their point well, but you've straw-manned them about groceries. GP specifically enumerated housing, healthcare, transport etc - not groceries. I assume HN users are American unless informed otherwise. I'm glad that your health insurance bureaucrats can make a salary, but it's nonsense to believe that's a good way to run a society, even if it is profitable for some or can be deemed to be "free-ma…

> GP specifically enumerated housing, healthcare, transport etc - not groceries.

The post I responded to mentioned "food" as well as the other things you list. Last I checked, "groceries" is food.

I focused on groceries because they are closer to being in a free market than any of the other things you mention, all of which are more heavily regulated by the government and therefore are more inefficiently and wastefully provided than groceries are. If we want to talk about giving everyone easy access to "life's necessities", it seems obvious that making the provision of those necessities more efficient, hence making them cheaper and easier to afford, would be a good thing to do. That means making all those other things more like groceries in the way we provide them. That might well decrease the per-unit profit on such things--which is why I pointed out that profit margins on groceries are pretty small. That's what free markets do: they drive profit margins down, not up, through competition.

Most of the rest of your post is simply uninformed about how things in the US actually work. I'll focus on one particular statement of yours to make that clear:

> this is because pretty much every move your country makes is individualistic instead of collectivist

Quite the contrary: things that are a mess in the US are a mess because of too much collectivism, not too little. To take your two major examples:

The US health care system is a mess because the people who actually have to make decisions about care--patients and doctors--have no idea what the care they are deciding about actually costs. All those costs are hidden--negotiated collectively behind the scenes by large corporations who have no skin in the game in individual cases, which is where the availability and quality of care actually matters. How can people possibly make decent tradeoffs of benefit vs. cost when providing or receiving care if they can't see and control the costs?

Housing is a mess in the US because much, if not most, urban and suburban planning was done from the top down, by collectivist central decree, instead of from the bottom up, evolving as individual choices and interactions shaped communities. (In Europe, by contrast, most cities and towns developed from the bottom up, and hence were much more suitable for introduction of a few top-down things like mass transit when those became available, because the top-down planners had the benefit of centuries of bottom-up evolution of communities.)

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#152
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why's that ridiculous? Because drawing conclusions about what happens if you guarantee income to everyone , based on studying a project that only guaranteed income to homeless people, is ridiculous. > a small scale trial Is not what this is. You can't have a "small scale trial" of universal basic income. That's the whole point.

No, what's ridiculous is claiming that conclusions from this study cannot apply to UBI. Nobody is claiming the study models inflation, it's about homelessness. Basic Income is part of Universal Basic Income, and I think it's pretty reasonable to expect some conclusions apply to each.

> Nobody is claiming the study models inflation, it's about homelessness.

Since most people are not homeless, I have no idea why you think this makes it reasonable to extrapolate anything from this study to the case of actual UBI.

> Basic Income is part of Universal Basic Income

Not if it's only given to the homeless.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A UBI based on an income tax is not feasible due to the feedback cycle it would engender. As the UBI goes up the % of people who would make the same or greater incomes by quitting and taking UBI would go up. Raising UBI would be extremely popular politically and would go up quickly. This would either drive inflation out of control or erode the income tax base over time until it no longer could support the UBI. Either…

> As the UBI goes up the % of people who would make the same or greater incomes by quitting and taking UBI would go up. That’s not how UBI works. It’s not tied to quitting one’s job. Anyone working earns income from salary/wages in addition to their UBI. Unlike many existing entitlements, there is never a financial incentive to work less.

That's not what I was saying. I was saying that as UBI goes up in $$$ that more people will hit the point where they can live nicely on just the UBI, where they extra income from working is just not worth it due to the increasing taxes minimizing it's reward factor.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#154
post #100
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UBI is a practical solution. Education and reproductive changes don’t alter the reality that you can spend years working on developing skills in an industry that rapidly disappears due to technological upheaval. It also doesn’t change the fact that you can’t remedy a plummeting number of jobs for low-educated people by educating everyone. Will pilots be necessary in ten years? Twenty? Fifty? What do we do about the f…

> UBI is a practical solution. No, it isn't. All of the issues you describe are business realities ; they are facts of life that everyone has to deal with. You can't make those issues go away by guaranteeing everyone an income, because those issues are issues of production , not consumption. Guaranteeing everyone an income doesn't magically enable us to predict the future or magically retrain people instantly for new…

> All of the issues you describe are business realities; they are facts of life that everyone has to deal with. You can't make those issues go away by guaranteeing everyone an income, because those issues are issues of production, not consumption.

I believe you’ve thoroughly missed the point.

UBI does not, as you note, “magically enable us to predict the future or magically retrain people instantly for new jobs when old ones become obsolete”. What it does do—in principle—is allow the people who are impacted by structurally decreasing job opportunities and increasing turmoil in the job market to live in something other than destitution. And it does so without many of the downsides of means-tested programs, such as benefits cliffs, negative incentive structures, and operational overhead.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#155
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> UBI is a practical solution. No, it isn't. All of the issues you describe are business realities ; they are facts of life that everyone has to deal with. You can't make those issues go away by guaranteeing everyone an income, because those issues are issues of production , not consumption. Guaranteeing everyone an income doesn't magically enable us to predict the future or magically retrain people instantly for new…

> All of the issues you describe are business realities; they are facts of life that everyone has to deal with. You can't make those issues go away by guaranteeing everyone an income, because those issues are issues of production, not consumption. I believe you’ve thoroughly missed the point. UBI does not, as you note, “magically enable us to predict the future or magically retrain people instantly for new jobs when…

> allow the people who are impacted by structurally decreasing job opportunities and increasing turmoil in the job market to live in something other than destitution

Even if I accept your description of the problem for the sake of argument (I actually don't think you're correctly describing the actual facts), why is universal basic income needed for this? And how does it avoid the obvious problem of increasing these same problems by reducing people's incentive to produce goods and services?

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#156
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They keep changing the U in Universal to Unconditional, or taking it out altogether, such as with https://mayorsforagi.org which is means-tested

Any UBI proposal is means-tested pretty much by definition.

What definition of means testing includes everyone?

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#157
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All of the issues you describe are business realities; they are facts of life that everyone has to deal with. You can't make those issues go away by guaranteeing everyone an income, because those issues are issues of production, not consumption. I believe you’ve thoroughly missed the point. UBI does not, as you note, “magically enable us to predict the future or magically retrain people instantly for new jobs when…

> allow the people who are impacted by structurally decreasing job opportunities and increasing turmoil in the job market to live in something other than destitution Even if I accept your description of the problem for the sake of argument (I actually don't think you're correctly describing the actual facts), why is universal basic income needed for this? And how does it avoid the obvious problem of increasing these…

> …why is universal basic income needed for this? And how does it avoid the obvious problem of increasing these same problems by reducing people's incentive to produce goods and services?

For the simple fact that working and gaining an income will always improve your standard of living, unlike means-tested programs today with benefits cliffs and perverse incentives.

We can even potentially reduce or eliminate minimum wage, since basic survival is no longer contingent upon working a job that pays enough.

Additionally, the problems foreseen aren’t a result of a lack of population willing to produce goods and/or services. They’re from an economic future where there are no reasonable opportunities for a growing number of people. What will, for example, ride sharing, food delivery drivers, and truck drivers do when self-driving vehicles eliminate the need for them? Do you believe we have (or will have) jobs to employ the ten-plus million who will be put out of work in the coming decade or two?

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the extra $950 per month does surprisingly little in this population. It makes sense - housing tends to cost just a bit more than that. Just two or three times more. It can often be better spent on things that matter more than housing, especially if one doesn't want to live with a roommate. I wouldn't think this way personally, I would want somewhere to live at the bare minimum. But homeless is an entire spectrum.

Could there be categories other than "pays rent or owns home" and "homelessness"?

How is money going to get them a free place if they didn't have one already, I wonder? Would that even be free?

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#159
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you only include homeless people statistically you can expect that they will make poorer financial decisions than the rest of the population. Also there are other implications, I’m not even sure what’s the point in calling this UBI (the data might of course be still valuable for other purposes).

> If you only include homeless people statistically you can expect that they will make poorer financial decisions than the rest of the population. Where are you getting this? The article is indicating that only people experiencing homelessness were given this, and its indicating quite a few of the participants of the study got off the streets and even out of shelters. Not everybody is homeless due to their financial…

> The article is indicating that only people experiencing homelessness were given this,

Yes, which is why this is a has nothing to do with UBI. Cash based welfare payments are not a particularly novel idea and there is plenty of data why do they work/don’t work.

> Not everybody is homeless due to their financial mismanagement, some people just get runs of bad luck.

Of course. However on average they are probably significantly more likely to mismanage that money than other groups.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#160
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't give everyone $20K without raising taxes. The money has to come from somewhere. Taxes would go up to pay for it. You can't have both UBI and the current tax rates.

Realistically you may be correct - however, it is within the realms of possibility that enabling poor people to take part in the economy will drive value creation, and that this increase to the tax base could fund UBI. Stock buy-backs don't create any value, or, if they do, it is obscure to me. You may get a one-time bump in capital gains tax, but it's nothing to build an economy on. A million new dishwashers, though…

Enabling poor people to take part in the economy will increase some value creation. But most governments already do that in some form or another.
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