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Re: undefined

#61

Post by keepamovin »

throw9away6 wrote: post #40
keepamovin wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying they are, but if China is mid economic ruin, that might actually be a reason for them to favor conflict. War is often about the spoils, and historically has been used to bolster state coffers in the face of mismanagement, failure or shoddy tax collection. I'm not sure a failing China is less likely to go to war, than one who "can afford it". Look at Japan pre-WWII. They basically went to war to refresh…

Wars reset all debts and China has all the capacity to sustain a massive war economy equal to USA during WW2. I think people underestimate what they could do if provoked or desperate

This, exactly. Underestimate to our detriment...surely military intelligence assesses it clearly, but the prevailing story in the press is the reverse. I wonder why that is?

Re: undefined

#62

Post by simonblack »

ajuc wrote: post #15
mytailorisrich wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China can buy energy from Russia and the Middle East. It is also the second largest economy in the world with the second largest population, which means they can produce mountains of military equipment if needed, which Russia's small economy cannot. China is coupled to the West in a way that makes the West at least a dependent on China as China is on the West. There is no comparison with Russia and, if anything Ukrai…

> China can buy energy from Russia and the Middle East They already do. But they won't have anywhere to sell their products. Most of their economy gone just like that. > China is coupled to the West in a way that makes the West at least a dependent on China as China is on the West. Nope. For west decoupling means higher inflation but lower unemployment and faster growth. You win more than you lose. For China it means…

But they won't have anywhere to sell their products. Most of their economy gone just like that.

The internal Chinese economy* is at 80% as against 20% for exports.** Of those exports, the US plus Europe are about 30%. In other words, if the entire West is decoupled from China's economy, the Chinese economy still has 80%+ (70% of 20% = 14%) or a total of 94% left. The West is not actually as important as it thinks.

* The Chinese internal market size is four times the size of the US market for consumer goods. And that's apart from the the Chinese rolling in cash reserves that lets them afford to build lots of infrastructure, just like the US was able to build back in the 1950s and 1960s.

** Back around 1980, the US internal economy was around 95% and the external trade was about 5%. In other words, back then, the 'Rest of the World' could have disappeared and the US economy probably wouldn't have noticed anything. Those times have long gone.

Re: undefined

#63

Post by throw9away6 »

keepamovin wrote: post #61
throw9away6 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wars reset all debts and China has all the capacity to sustain a massive war economy equal to USA during WW2. I think people underestimate what they could do if provoked or desperate

This, exactly. Underestimate to our detriment...surely military intelligence assesses it clearly, but the prevailing story in the press is the reverse. I wonder why that is?

Racism is a big part of it. Every race thinks they are superior and somehow other people are stupid, orks, apes, subhumans etc.

When wars break out though it generally turns out that people are equally capable of killing each other and logistics is what makes or breaks any prolonged conflict. Technology helps as a force multiplier but it won’t save you if the logistics break down and you run low on ammo or manpower.

Re: undefined

#64

Post by throw9away6 »

ilaksh wrote: post #48

Actually the 24/7 media does not make us safer at all because control over much of it is still relatively concentrated. The most dangerous misinformation ever always comes from nation-states and their puppet media in the form of propaganda. This is necessary to motivate war (which is strategic) because people won't engage in mass killing for strategic reasons only -- they need some ethical justification. Reality is n…

Just look at the Russia Ukraine war as an example of this. Total combat death is somewhere between 500k and 1m depending on sources. Probably the nastiest modern war since Korea and still the media portrays it as being sterile and almost clean. The horrors are mostly suppressed and forgotten. The almost no discussion of what daily life is like in the war zone or civilians nearby.

Re: undefined

#65

Post by throw9away6 »

keepamovin wrote: post #60
throw9away6 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forgot all the pending African crisis. Probably a few more in North Africa as well. Food costs have hit the threshold where global instability in poor regions is high. Also possibly Pakistan

Great run down both of you. When you put it like that it does look a lot more likely.

The UN food price index is a great predictor of global instability. The last time it spiked we had the Arab spring. Looks like more trouble in the Middle East this time too.

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

Re: undefined

#66

Post by thiagoharry »

ajuc wrote: post #44
ipaddr wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For Russia Ukraine is as personal for historical reasons but also for strategic reasons. Ukraine is the buffer state between nato and Russia and the access to the black sea.

If you asked Russians about that 20 years ago nobody would say that :) The main russian propagandist - Solovyov - publicly argued that Russia cannot invade Crimea and should let Ukraine do whatever it likes like 15 years ago. Now he argues Russia should nuke the west because Ukraine must be russian. Not 20 years passed. Watch the videos - they are hilarious when you compare to what they are saying now [1] Russia is a…

This is not what leaks tell us about communications between Russia and USA from 15 years ago:

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1502177250300600320

(I would post the original cable, but Wikileaks is offline now).

Re: undefined

#67

Post by GoldenMonkey »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #14
ajuc wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is using russian equipment (or equipment based on reverse-engineered russian equipment), russian tactics, and is training with Russia. Before 2022 it was generally agreed that in their joint exercises russian army looked better. China has all the corruption problems Russia has, even less oversight and transparency, and fought no competetive wars in which it could be tested. I expect much worse performance from…

China can buy energy from Russia and the Middle East. It is also the second largest economy in the world with the second largest population, which means they can produce mountains of military equipment if needed, which Russia's small economy cannot. China is coupled to the West in a way that makes the West at least a dependent on China as China is on the West. There is no comparison with Russia and, if anything Ukrai…

Sure. They can buy oil. But, how will it make it to China in a war? With sanctions applied by the US Navy.

And what about basic necessities like food? China can only meet 65% of it’s food needs.

China is completely vulnerable and dependent on the west, in a way that Russia is not.

Re: undefined

#68

Post by jnsaff2 »

thiagoharry wrote: post #66
ajuc wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you asked Russians about that 20 years ago nobody would say that :) The main russian propagandist - Solovyov - publicly argued that Russia cannot invade Crimea and should let Ukraine do whatever it likes like 15 years ago. Now he argues Russia should nuke the west because Ukraine must be russian. Not 20 years passed. Watch the videos - they are hilarious when you compare to what they are saying now [1] Russia is a…

This is not what leaks tell us about communications between Russia and USA from 15 years ago: https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1502177250300600320 (I would post the original cable, but Wikileaks is offline now).

By “this” you refer to which part of the comment?

Finland had zero plans for joining NATO before russia brutally attacked Ukraine.

Finland also joined to better protect them from russian aggression.

So NATO coming closer to russia is fully a consequence of their own actions.

People don’t like their country invaded.

Re: undefined

#69

Post by tester756 »

houseatrielah wrote: post #51
tester756 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There's hypersonic missiles and in terms of submarines -- we can detect a wobble of some planet a zillion miles away -- maybe there exists a mechanism to detect subs with increasing precision of instrumentation So, does it exist or not?

Such an ability would be totally classified, its just an observation that measuring ability is increasing. Atomic clocks, etc.

Well, just because we improve in one area, it doesnt mean that we improve in this area

Re: undefined

#70

Post by t312227 »

t312227 wrote: post #4

imho. pretty close. it all depends on the reactions of the white house - eg. the "neocons" - to losing their war with russia which is ongoing in the ukraine. just my 0.02€

ah, yesss ... thank you.

down-voting a comment on the internet you don't like makes reality go away.

"The Beginning of a Long Fall for Ukraine"

* https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-10423-the-beginni...

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