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Re: undefined

#41

Post by Spooky23 »

ajuc wrote: post #7

Ukraine makes WW3 less likely. If it was conquered quickly - that would make WW3 more likely (because Russia and China would estimate their chances of further conquest higher and would probably start something in Taiwan or Baltic states). Russia issued a statement just before 2022 invasion that demanded NATO back off from Baltic States, Poland, etc. If Ukraine fell quickly they could think they can force this by smal…

The Russians and their friends are playing a different game. Russian soldiers are like cattle heading to slaughter against NATO equipment and training.

But if long running influence operations seem to be the area where Russia in particular owns the board.

Re: undefined

#42

Post by [deleted] »

ksherlock wrote: post #29
mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China cannot sustain themselves with the resources they have. They've seen the world react to Russia, many countries cutting Russia off financially in many ways. China could probably not survive as a nation if they were economically cut off. Yes many countries would be hurting for some time without being able to import goods but things like food, fertilizer, etc. are kinda key. China also has a shrinking population,…

> China also has a shrinking population Most developed countries have a shrinking population, excluding immigration from, well, less developed countries. Due to the one-child policy and preferences for a male child, there are now too many men, particularly in the military-eligible age groups. Sending them off to be war heroes will balance out the gender ratio and prevent an incel uprising in the future.

[deleted]

Re: undefined

#43

Post by jnsaff2 »

ipaddr wrote: post #37
mytailorisrich wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's happening is that the West sees that they are dangerously dependent on China, which as world's second largest economy is also diversifying outside of Western countries. To some extent I think China would be willing to pay, and accept, a higher economic price than the West as long as Taiwan was seized. That's perhaps the same calculation Russia did with Ukraine, though, so they need to give a very hard look and…

For Russia Ukraine is as personal for historical reasons but also for strategic reasons. Ukraine is the buffer state between nato and Russia and the access to the black sea.

What historical reasons would justify invading and killing people who don't want to be part of russia?

As for buffer states, by attacking Ukraine they pushed Finland into NATO which the führer does not seem to mind. So we can easily call bullshit on this trope.

As for access to Black Sea, just look at the map. russia has plenty of access to it.

Re: undefined

#44

Post by ajuc »

ipaddr wrote: post #37
mytailorisrich wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's happening is that the West sees that they are dangerously dependent on China, which as world's second largest economy is also diversifying outside of Western countries. To some extent I think China would be willing to pay, and accept, a higher economic price than the West as long as Taiwan was seized. That's perhaps the same calculation Russia did with Ukraine, though, so they need to give a very hard look and…

For Russia Ukraine is as personal for historical reasons but also for strategic reasons. Ukraine is the buffer state between nato and Russia and the access to the black sea.

If you asked Russians about that 20 years ago nobody would say that :)

The main russian propagandist - Solovyov - publicly argued that Russia cannot invade Crimea and should let Ukraine do whatever it likes like 15 years ago. Now he argues Russia should nuke the west because Ukraine must be russian.

Not 20 years passed. Watch the videos - they are hilarious when you compare to what they are saying now [1]

Russia is authocracy, they will say whatever putin wants them to say. If putin decides to stop the war and go home - the same people will say with 100% confidence that it's the best thing to do and Russia has no interest in internal Ukrainian affairs.

As for strategic reasons - Russia moved its soldiers from Finland border after Finland joined NATO. Russia knows perfectly well NATO does not want to invade it. They not only know it - they rely on it.

[1] https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-solovyov-1751095

Re: undefined

#45

Post by ajuc »

galfarragem wrote: post #35
ajuc wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you are overestimating Russia and underestimating China 2 years ago Russia was called 2nd army of the world. China wasn't the first. > The problem of the West is that all of our leaders are weak. Weak leaders precipitate wars. These general statements are generally false.

Eastern Europeans are biased - scars are still there - but fear makes the wolf bigger than it really is. > These general statements are generally false. What about Trump or even Merkel? Biden and Von Der Leyen are a clear downgrade that may bring us a stupid war.

> Eastern Europeans are biased

We were called biased for 30 years. We were right. Still biased tho :) If you are called biased when you're proven right by the people who were wrong - it's not you who is biased.

> Trump and Merkel.

Both are former leaders.

Re: undefined

#46

Post by tester756 »

houseatrielah wrote: post #17
RetroTechie wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the only way to win a nuclear war is to win on surprise attack first-strike No win: any counterstrike need only be airborne before that 1st strike hits (ignoring submarines). In your example: NK might be able to strike SK by surprise - short distance, missiles could could cover it in a few minutes. But in case of NK striking SK, countries allied with SK wouldn't leave NK unpunished. So even if NK's 1st strike were…

There's hypersonic missiles and in terms of submarines -- we can detect a wobble of some planet a zillion miles away -- maybe there exists a mechanism to detect subs with increasing precision of instrumentation. The definition of "win" for a western democracy may be very different than the definition of "win" for a Communist government.

>There's hypersonic missiles and in terms of submarines -- we can detect a wobble of some planet a zillion miles away -- maybe there exists a mechanism to detect subs with increasing precision of instrumentation

So, does it exist or not?

Re: undefined

#47

Post by Trent_11011 »

ajuc wrote: post #7

Ukraine makes WW3 less likely. If it was conquered quickly - that would make WW3 more likely (because Russia and China would estimate their chances of further conquest higher and would probably start something in Taiwan or Baltic states). Russia issued a statement just before 2022 invasion that demanded NATO back off from Baltic States, Poland, etc. If Ukraine fell quickly they could think they can force this by smal…

[flagged]

Re: undefined

#48

Post by ilaksh »

Actually the 24/7 media does not make us safer at all because control over much of it is still relatively concentrated.

The most dangerous misinformation ever always comes from nation-states and their puppet media in the form of propaganda. This is necessary to motivate war (which is strategic) because people won't engage in mass killing for strategic reasons only -- they need some ethical justification.

Reality is never quite enough to make war palatable, so propaganda must be used to make the enemy seem inhuman or highlight their worst behaviors or cultural failings.

This will come from your most trusted news sources. In every country that participates, hundreds of millions will be utterly convinced that killing as many of the participants in the other countries is their moral duty.

Re: undefined

#49

Post by [deleted] »

ajuc wrote: post #44
ipaddr wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For Russia Ukraine is as personal for historical reasons but also for strategic reasons. Ukraine is the buffer state between nato and Russia and the access to the black sea.

If you asked Russians about that 20 years ago nobody would say that :) The main russian propagandist - Solovyov - publicly argued that Russia cannot invade Crimea and should let Ukraine do whatever it likes like 15 years ago. Now he argues Russia should nuke the west because Ukraine must be russian. Not 20 years passed. Watch the videos - they are hilarious when you compare to what they are saying now [1] Russia is a…

[deleted]

Re: undefined

#50

Post by [deleted] »

ajuc wrote: post #7

Ukraine makes WW3 less likely. If it was conquered quickly - that would make WW3 more likely (because Russia and China would estimate their chances of further conquest higher and would probably start something in Taiwan or Baltic states). Russia issued a statement just before 2022 invasion that demanded NATO back off from Baltic States, Poland, etc. If Ukraine fell quickly they could think they can force this by smal…

[deleted]
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