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Re: undefined

#51

Post by houseatrielah »

tester756 wrote: post #46
houseatrielah wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's hypersonic missiles and in terms of submarines -- we can detect a wobble of some planet a zillion miles away -- maybe there exists a mechanism to detect subs with increasing precision of instrumentation. The definition of "win" for a western democracy may be very different than the definition of "win" for a Communist government.

>There's hypersonic missiles and in terms of submarines -- we can detect a wobble of some planet a zillion miles away -- maybe there exists a mechanism to detect subs with increasing precision of instrumentation So, does it exist or not?

Such an ability would be totally classified, its just an observation that measuring ability is increasing. Atomic clocks, etc.

Re: undefined

#52

Post by hackerlight »

keepamovin wrote: post #3
Justsignedup wrote: post #2

Not close. China can't afford it. They are mid economic ruin and can't afford a sustained conflict. Russia is almost out of ammo. Desperately trying to generate more. Suffering from a lot of brain drain. Middle easy is in fighting. There's no way they'd jump into such a war. Nobody wants to directly attack a nato country. who else would be involved?

I'm not saying they are, but if China is mid economic ruin, that might actually be a reason for them to favor conflict. War is often about the spoils, and historically has been used to bolster state coffers in the face of mismanagement, failure or shoddy tax collection. I'm not sure a failing China is less likely to go to war, than one who "can afford it". Look at Japan pre-WWII. They basically went to war to refresh…

Another driver is that extremist ideology surfaces when people are suffering under economic ruin. Nationalist sentiments rise and strongmen are put in charge.

Re: undefined

#53

Post by [deleted] »

houseatrielah wrote: post #17
RetroTechie wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the only way to win a nuclear war is to win on surprise attack first-strike No win: any counterstrike need only be airborne before that 1st strike hits (ignoring submarines). In your example: NK might be able to strike SK by surprise - short distance, missiles could could cover it in a few minutes. But in case of NK striking SK, countries allied with SK wouldn't leave NK unpunished. So even if NK's 1st strike were…

There's hypersonic missiles and in terms of submarines -- we can detect a wobble of some planet a zillion miles away -- maybe there exists a mechanism to detect subs with increasing precision of instrumentation. The definition of "win" for a western democracy may be very different than the definition of "win" for a Communist government.

[deleted]

Re: undefined

#55

Post by keepamovin »

ThePowerOfFuet wrote: post #54

>prolonged conflict with the Ukraine It is "Ukraine", not "the Ukraine". https://theconversation.com/its-ukraine-not-the-ukraine-here...

Yeah, that does make sense. I'm sorry I didn't use the correct usage. I was just pulling from memory. But it seems like correct depends on who you talk to...

Re: undefined

#56

Post by keepamovin »

ax0ar wrote: post #28

It could start any time. There is a lot of global tension and to trigger a global catastrophic war is not as hard as people are made to believe. Besides, neocons and evangelists are actively pushing for it. It’s closer than we think it is, yet people won’t believe this because the media hasn’t mentioned anything yet. Once it has a branding we will already be living the global war.

This is very insightful. A "branding" indeed. It's like trying to pick FB's new name before it dropped, heh :) Any ideas on what it might be branded?

Re: undefined

#57

Post by keepamovin »

ilaksh wrote: post #48

Actually the 24/7 media does not make us safer at all because control over much of it is still relatively concentrated. The most dangerous misinformation ever always comes from nation-states and their puppet media in the form of propaganda. This is necessary to motivate war (which is strategic) because people won't engage in mass killing for strategic reasons only -- they need some ethical justification. Reality is n…

This is a very good (and sad, it's 2023...) description of how it works.

Re: undefined

#58

Post by keepamovin »

ksherlock wrote: post #30

You forgot Azerbaijan/Armenia and Kosovo/Serbia.

Good point, yeah. I'm sorry about that. I'd heard Azerbaijan/Armenia in the news recently and totally forgot it, I'm sorry. I did not hear about Kosovo/Serbia.

I just now found this: https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/two-e...

Re: undefined

#60

Post by keepamovin »

throw9away6 wrote: post #39
seydor wrote: post #32

Possible further eruptions/escalation of conflicts: Turkey-Syria (already underway) Saudi-Yemen Iran-Azerbaijan Azerbaijan-Armenia Russia-Georgia Turkey-Cyprus Lebanon-Israel Serbia-Kosovo

You forgot all the pending African crisis. Probably a few more in North Africa as well. Food costs have hit the threshold where global instability in poor regions is high. Also possibly Pakistan

Great run down both of you. When you put it like that it does look a lot more likely.
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