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They didn't discuss Peter Perfect's sister, Petra Perfect, who -- rather than just wait for the one bottom day for the year -- instead buys and sells repeatedly, throughout the year, at more local lows and highs. Is that also considered market timing?
Which is why better late than never I am overpaying into pension and chucking that on a far/wide international index. My calcs say I won’t retire rich but I will still most likely have the money and beat inflation. And not spend it lol! The real issue for the average Jo seeking alpha is you often need to pay the house (your government!) for the privilege. In Australia you trigger capital gains tax when you sell. And…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The March 2020 drop was from the pandemic lockdowns. In that moment, nobody knew that was a buy signal. Nobody knew then when economic activity would recover, if the pandemic would pass in two weeks or several months or many years.
"nobody knew" doesn't mean nobody acted. The rational actors that act only on information "everybody knows" are usually late to the game
Timing the market to some requires complete prescience.
To others it may not.
They didn't discuss Peter Perfect's sister, Petra Perfect, who -- rather than just wait for the one bottom day for the year -- instead buys and sells repeatedly, throughout the year, at more local lows and highs. Is that also considered market timing?
At a guess they'd lose all their money in transaction costs.
Which is why better late than never I am overpaying into pension and chucking that on a far/wide international index. My calcs say I won’t retire rich but I will still most likely have the money and beat inflation. And not spend it lol! The real issue for the average Jo seeking alpha is you often need to pay the house (your government!) for the privilege. In Australia you trigger capital gains tax when you sell. And…
For people with the intellect to understand the economy it does. Just very few of those people
If this was true wouldn’t you have many more economists with multiple mullions just from market timing? Even if you can predict the market and you are correct it can stay irrational so i think this comment is completely incorrect
They didn't discuss Peter Perfect's sister, Petra Perfect, who -- rather than just wait for the one bottom day for the year -- instead buys and sells repeatedly, throughout the year, at more local lows and highs. Is that also considered market timing?
Although when the s&p dropped 20% in a few days in March 2020 — that was clearly a buy signal. And when tech stocks dropped by 70-90% in Nov 2022. Those stocks are now up 2x/3x from bottom. Sure, long term it probably doesn’t work out to time the market but sometimes it’s pretty obvious what’s happening.
I do believe that markets can be beat, but by definition, you need to be "smarter" than the average capital, where more than half of the capital in the market on a given day is controlled by somewhat sophisticated investors. I don't think it's worthwhile for a retail trader to try their hand unless they are putting considerable effort into developing their alpha and either have automation skills or exceptional discipline.
(Internet has made me skeptical)
However, the only incentive I can think of schwab is to encourage people to invest ASAP they have cash so schwab can get that money in their system so they can charge fees/still services.
But that’s just normal business