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September was the most anomalously hot month ever

scientificamerican.com

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Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#321

Post by linuxftw »

ramesh31 wrote: post #290
linuxftw wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

>Prove that the earth has never warmed faster than it has in the last 100 years. Obviously, you cannot, the data lacks that sort of granularity. This is silly. We know the precise chemical makeup of earth's atmosphere, and by extension its' climate, going back hundreds of thousands of years through antarctic ice core samples, which can be dated to a resolution of less than a hundred years. We are in an absolutely unp…

Thanks for linking that. It entirely disproves the 'unprecedented' warming narrative.

Figure 5 indicates there's a 10-15 degree rise in temperature in around 200 years 45k years ago.

In any case, the data is not granular enough, nor are the enough samples to make any kind of determination on a global scale.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#322

Post by worksonmine »

nologic01 wrote: post #50

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

I would like to see solar activity included in the discussion as well. But anytime I bring it up I'm called a climate denialist. But we're seeing auroras very far south and those days it's no issue mentioning the sun is currently in an active phase. Why is that detail always omitted when it comes to global warming, sorry climate change?

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#323

Post by ramesh31 »

zosima wrote: post #310
ramesh31 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm a global warming believer, but I'm starting to question whether the planet warming won't actually be posivite for a lot of first world economies. It's not about whether it will be good or bad to live in a warmer climate. Maybe it would be better. But the rate of change is the danger. If we were slowly warming over the course of millenia, it'd be a different story. But 2C of warming over less than 100 years is so…

This is hogwash, as the resolution of time in archaeological records are generally not this granular, and a lot of short-term trends are being smoothed. Anyway, it's very likely that the younger dryas had a much sharper shift in temperature.

>the resolution of time in archaeological records are generally not this granular, and a lot of short-term trends are being smoothed.

We have precise records from antarctic core samples that can say with near absolute certainty what our climate looked like for hundreds of thousands of years. I won't argue any further about basic chemistry.

>very likely that the younger dryas had a much sharper shift in temperature.

...which was a catastrophic event for humanity that nearly wiped us out as a species. So yeah, point taken.

But furthermore, what exactly do you have to gain here by claiming that the sky isn't blue? That is the number one thing that confuses me about this idiocy. The earth is warming, and that will cause massive problems for society. It's a cut and dry fact of reality, regardless of your opinions.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#324

Post by NoGravitas »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #125
hotpotamus wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps those drifting into panic and depression are doing so because we are now clearly seeing undeniable effects and yet denial persists while CO2 emissions creep up seemingly inexorably?

Agreed. Panic is the rational reaction [edited from "response"] to a near term extinction level threat that not enough people are taking seriously. People advocating half measures or not panicking are incredibly irrational. It's a human cognitive bias to try to arrive at intermediate outcomes between extremes (regardless of truth). Extremeness aversion. edit: for instance, IPCC/NCA5 author Zeke Hausfather said, "This…

No more half measures, Walter.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#326

Post by avgcorrection »

zosima wrote: post #318
qubex wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not an observation about communism-vs-capitalism (or at least that’s not how I understand it): it’s about how we’re collectively as a society so fixated upon the inevitability of property rights and capitalism and return on investment and the primacy of profit that we cannot contemplate that we may need to abandon all these precepts in order to avert climatic disaster (or some other existential threat).

And how exactly would introducing communism avert climate disaster? How did the environment fare in Soviet. Which country is the largest CO2 emitter in the world? Do you even consider what you're writing before you post it?

The person that you replied to already wrote that “It’s not an observation about communism-vs-capitalism”.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#327

Post by NoGravitas »

ljf wrote: post #137
jonhohle wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where in the world would this event take place? In the hottest parts of the US the temperature gets to 46ºC regularly during the summer and people have lived there for hundreds of years. Do people die of heat stoke? Sure, at a rate of hundreds per year. Elsewhere in the world there are places where people love in the same heat with less means of cooking and less access to water. Millions of people may have to adapt.…

Where would this take place? In places where the wet bulb temperature is already getting close to the limits of human endurance: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need... People can survive amazingly hot temperatures, as long as they can sweat - once the wet bulb temp gets far above 31c people are in trouble - the theoretical maximum is 35c. We won't hit these wet bulb temps in places like the U…

KSR's novel "The Ministry For the Future" starts with a graphic account of a 35C wet bulb event in India. The heat initially raises the demand for air conditioning, the demand for air conditioning over-stresses the electrical grid, the electrical grid fails so no one has air conditioning, millions die. I don't remember exactly when it's set; in the 2030s?

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#328

Post by zosima »

ramesh31 wrote: post #323
zosima wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is hogwash, as the resolution of time in archaeological records are generally not this granular, and a lot of short-term trends are being smoothed. Anyway, it's very likely that the younger dryas had a much sharper shift in temperature.

>the resolution of time in archaeological records are generally not this granular, and a lot of short-term trends are being smoothed. We have precise records from antarctic core samples that can say with near absolute certainty what our climate looked like for hundreds of thousands of years. I won't argue any further about basic chemistry. >very likely that the younger dryas had a much sharper shift in temperature. .…

> Wrong. We have precise records from antarctic core samples that can say with near absolute certainty what our climate looked like for hundreds of thousands of years.

Cool story, bro.

The antarctic ice cores contain valuable information, but they do definitely not tell a complete story of neither temperatures, nor anything else across the whole globe on a granular time scale.

> ...which was a catastrophic event for humanity, and led to the winnowing of our population to less than 100,000 individuals. So yeah, point taken.

Yes, it wasn't fun. But then again people seemed to die when temperatures went very quickly down, and thrive very well when they shortly after increased again.

Anyway, you just wrote that such temperature shifts had never happened before. And now you say that it did naturally, not so long ago.

What I've got to gain on calling out bad apocalyptic propaganda? I might just be able to avoid the cure for 2C temperature increase, which looks like it may very well make life completely miserable for almost everyone.

As they say, the cure for climate change is the disease it claims it's fighting.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#329

Post by maipen »

bratbag wrote: post #259
maipen wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

You understand they were talking about people having fewer children than they used to. Right? Just on that basis, some people alive right now will live to see the global population shrink.

> will hopefully start

He is not stating that it will decline, he is implying that he wishes it's decline.

Population decline is bad for everyone. We need more human beings. The bigger the pool the more likely some "einsteins" will pop up and advance the human civilization.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#330

Post by NoGravitas »

DanHulton wrote: post #109
cm2012 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll bet you a thousand dollars there will be not even 10 million deaths over current level directly linked to climate change, like drought, heat stroke, etc.

You are delusional. That could happen in a single event, let alone "ever" as your comment is implying.

Yeah, we got a Pinker Thinker here. Dangerous temperature and humidity combined with failing infrastructure will kill millions rapidly, while two simultaneous crop failures in different parts of the world will throw the global food supply into shambles and kill even more people, slowly.
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