September was the most anomalously hot month ever • Hacker News Board

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#231

Post by danShumway » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:03 PM UTC

avgcorrection wrote: post #224

danShumway wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are issues with the quote, and Communist countries do pollute, but if the argument is (as avgcorrection stated): > Then it's the small task of changing the economic model of the entire developed (and less developed, and exploited) world. The model that all of the richest and most powerful people depend on. Then yes, you're talking specifically about Capitalism at this point; avgcorrection is saying that we can'…

It's got nothing to do with imagination or ideology and everything to do with the material reality that the the most powerful forces that the world has ever seen will crush you if you try to change the existing system.

Sure, but that just sounds like you're agreeing with qubex?

Not sure if there's something I'm missing here, but I don't see a contradiction between "the most powerful forces the world has ever seen will crush you if you change the current system" and "it's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of Capitalism." It sounds like you're both saying the same thing.

Again, I think it's reasonable to ask whether other economic systems if they were dominant would act the same way -- but... I mean, we are talking about Capitalism, that is the most dominant and most powerful economic system in the entire world and the status quo that the most powerful forces in the world see as the default system to preserve. And both you and qubex are saying that changing that system appears to be impossible even when faced with a global human catastrophe.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#232

Post by dragonwriter » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:05 PM UTC

Aunche wrote: post #230

flagrant_taco wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The debate over exact causes has always felt misguided to me. The planet is extremely complex, human impact on the planet is largely based on estimates and modeling, and at the end of the day an understanding of why it's getting hotter isn't itself a course correction. There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared. We could easily cut our use of fossil f…

> We could easily cut our use of fossil fuels if we weren't trying to balance that with an arbitrary GDP growth target Believe it or not, only a handful of people genuinely care about "GDP growth targets" and they have very little influence on environmental policy. The reason why politicians oppose sweeping regulation to stop climate change is because they'd lose their jobs if they intentionally caused gas prices to…

> Believe it or not, only a handful of people genuinely care about “GDP growth targets” and they have very little influence on environmental policy

A large number of people with vast influence on all government policy care about the returns of their investments in existing incumbent industries, which in aggregate correlate very strongly with GDP growth, though.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#233

Post by crooked-v » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:05 PM UTC

"The most anomalously hot month ever so far," to repurpose a quote from a certain yellow father.

I've been thinking about whether I should try to buy some Alaskan real estate while I have the chance. Sure, I have no plans to live there right now, but it might be real handy in a few decades...

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#234

Post by chimprich » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:06 PM UTC

Roark66 wrote: post #179

londons_explore wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Asking people to have less, experience less, and do less isn’t an argument that can ever win. Asking people to eat less might never win... But when there is a famine, people have no choice but to eat less. It's not that there is no food available in a famine - it's just that prices go sky high. Tomorrow the government could shut down the oil wells and say "nobody may emit any CO2 unless they pay $1000/ton of CO2 em…

>Tomorrow the government could shut down the oil wells and say "nobody may emit any CO2 unless they pay $1000/ton of CO2 emitted.". And it would not change anything at planet scale, because on the other side of the world China is going to "pick up any slack" of CO2 generation we may not do. It shouldn't stop us from trying to increase efficiency, but panic and insane ideas of the sort of "no one can emit a ton of CO2…

> And it would not change anything at planet scale, because on the other side of the world China is going to "pick up any slack" of CO2 generation we may not do.

We're still far better off decarbonising because (rest of the world CO2 + China CO2) > China CO2.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#235

Post by noknownsender » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:08 PM UTC

flagrant_taco wrote: post #91

nologic01 wrote: post #50

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

The debate over exact causes has always felt misguided to me. The planet is extremely complex, human impact on the planet is largely based on estimates and modeling, and at the end of the day an understanding of why it's getting hotter isn't itself a course correction. There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared. We could easily cut our use of fossil f…

I think the second half of your comment argues against the first.

You're right that people are unwilling to make the basic changes that are obviously needed. But we only know precisely that those changes would work to fight against climate change because we are able to say with certainty that those behaviors are contributing factors.

Any suggested actions have to have some level of scientific credibility to be taken seriously. Without it, they are easily dismissed by claiming that the planet is too complex to know if our actions will make a difference.

That, purely by coincidence, I'm sure, has been the exact argument used against making any changes, and against the fact that warming was happening in the first place, and against tobaccos cancer risk, and any other public policy proposal that goes against the interest of those profiting from the status quo.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#236

Post by rafaelero » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:08 PM UTC

flagrant_taco wrote: post #91

nologic01 wrote: post #50

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

The debate over exact causes has always felt misguided to me. The planet is extremely complex, human impact on the planet is largely based on estimates and modeling, and at the end of the day an understanding of why it's getting hotter isn't itself a course correction. There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared. We could easily cut our use of fossil f…

> There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared.

Have you tried arguing people against eating meat? If we can't even talk them out of the main individual contributor to climate change, I don't think we have a good chance to make a positive impact on other areas that depend on conscious effort.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#237

Post by JoshuaDavid » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:10 PM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #175

sojournerc wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Panic is never rational - it's an emotion. Giving into it can cloud what action should be taken, or, often, cause actions that make the situation worse.

If you do not feel panic at the state of climate change, then you are in fact not processing information correctly, ie, not rational. It is not rational to drive a car off the rim of the Grand Canyon; it is rational to jump on the brakes immediately and not fall to ones death. It is rational to feel fear when in great danger.

Fear and panic are not the same thing. If your car is rolling towards the rim of the grand canyon and isn't slowing down, you would be afraid but ideally would quickly but calmly consider and try your options (emergency brake, steer away from edge, bail before it reaches edge, etc) rather than panicking.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#238

Post by mylidlpony » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:12 PM UTC

brookst wrote: post #49

micromacrofoot wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the US can barely manage to pass its annual budget, I'm not hopeful

A large portion of the US populace wants to maintain/increase fossil fuel usage just to stick it to their perceived enemies. Also not hopeful.

When "perceived enemies" don't care about this problem and exploit fossil fuel dependency to gain leverage over other countries it worsens the problem in realpolitik sense. It is unwise to just hand wave this aspect away.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#239

Post by vixen99 » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:12 PM UTC

nemo44x wrote: post #153

londons_explore wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Asking people to have less, experience less, and do less isn’t an argument that can ever win. Asking people to eat less might never win... But when there is a famine, people have no choice but to eat less. It's not that there is no food available in a famine - it's just that prices go sky high. Tomorrow the government could shut down the oil wells and say "nobody may emit any CO2 unless they pay $1000/ton of CO2 em…

So a government that violently suppresses dissent and only wealthy people can emit CO2? Yeah, sounds great! I don’t think eco-fascism is going to get broad support…

Not sure about that. Announce a climate emergency with huge implications I don't need to detail and you might get away with anything irrespective of support.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#240

Post by useless999 » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:13 PM UTC

linuxftw wrote: post #84

ramesh31 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm a global warming believer, but I'm starting to question whether the planet warming won't actually be posivite for a lot of first world economies. It's not about whether it will be good or bad to live in a warmer climate. Maybe it would be better. But the rate of change is the danger. If we were slowly warming over the course of millenia, it'd be a different story. But 2C of warming over less than 100 years is so…

The geological record can't state that the pace of warming we're seeing hasn't happened before. And our real-time measured data prior to digital electronics is laughably imprecise.

Yes, and absence of edvidence is not edvidence of absence.

Which is why you need to posit a causal mechanism.

To say current climate models are overly narrowing the problem domain as to exclude purely natural factors (assuming humanity is not part of nature, but that’s an ontological discussion) you would need to provide an alternative one which can predict past and future pathways.

It would also need to be at least as good and not rely on improbable assumptions… which is one reason climate scientists favor the anthropogenic models.