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September was the most anomalously hot month ever

scientificamerican.com

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Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#41

Post by lm28469 »

yakattak wrote: post #4

Can someone help me understand why when there’s a record cold month, there’s a convo like this > non-believer: “see global warming doesn’t exist” > believer: “you can’t measure this on a monthly scale, it’s too slow of a process” But often when the case is reversed, it’s used as evidence of global warming? I know global warming is real and I am a firm believer in it but this duality seems to cause a lot of issues whe…

Climate change isn't the same as global warming

Record on both sides of the spectrum are symptoms of the same cause

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#42

Post by zemvpferreira »

badcppdev wrote: post #32

https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/story/Article/2... I think the Overton window needs to shift soon to include the idea that widespread government intervention will be required to avoid 800 million climate refugees

We do need to urgently discuss the role of the first world towards massive third world calamities.

I'm a global warming believer, but I'm starting to question whether the planet warming won't actually be posivite for a lot of first world economies. More solar power, less money spent on heating, less dependent on foreign resources etc etc etc. Meanwhile, poor countries will take the brunt of the disasters due to geography and lack of own resources.

If the rich turn out richer and the poor poorer due to man-made global warming, I do believe we owe them help as a restitutive obligation.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#43

Post by tzs »

yakattak wrote: post #4

Can someone help me understand why when there’s a record cold month, there’s a convo like this > non-believer: “see global warming doesn’t exist” > believer: “you can’t measure this on a monthly scale, it’s too slow of a process” But often when the case is reversed, it’s used as evidence of global warming? I know global warming is real and I am a firm believer in it but this duality seems to cause a lot of issues whe…

Because almost everyone who remembers a global record cold month is dead. Compare to record global hot months where the only living people who don't remember several are young children.

Take a look at this NOAA report for August 2023 [1], and scroll down to the chart showing August temperature anomalies going back to 1850.

The last record low August was in 1911. We've had 45 consecutive Augusts that were above the 20th century average.

That's how it is for all months. E.g. for January the last record low was around 1895, and we've had 47 consecutive Januaries above the 20th century average.

We are currently up to 534 consecutive months above 20th century average.

The pattern is similar for years. The last global record cold year was 1904.

[1] https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/g...

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#44

Post by mym1990 »

staunton wrote: post #35
otikik wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you can’t measure this on a monthly scale, it’s too slow of a process You can somewhat measure global warming on a monthly scale. Just graph the last 100 years in average monthly temperatures and you will see a graph going steadily up. So it will be with a longer scale. In that sense, global warming is a longer process, yes. The problem with that is not that "you can't measure it". It's that explaining it to a non-…

Has that kind of metaphor ever helped in a real case/conversation you know of? The metaphor illustrates how what you're saying might be true and helps understand what you mean. Somebody who disagrees usually understands what you mean by "it's getting warmer". They just don't believe it. At least that's my experience. Convincing someone in such matters is completely impossible unless there is a prior personal relation…

Trying to convince someone opposite of something they really really believe in has a very low probability of success, you will just ground them more into their belief. There are different pathways, but they take empathy and patience, some traits a lot of people lack when communicating with counter parties.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#45

Post by mbiondi »

yakattak wrote: post #4

Can someone help me understand why when there’s a record cold month, there’s a convo like this > non-believer: “see global warming doesn’t exist” > believer: “you can’t measure this on a monthly scale, it’s too slow of a process” But often when the case is reversed, it’s used as evidence of global warming? I know global warming is real and I am a firm believer in it but this duality seems to cause a lot of issues whe…

For the same reason that in the winter the weather people tell you the temperature, but then are sure to include the windchill factor (which makes it sound worse). In the summer they tell you the temperature and be sure to include the "real feel", which includes the heat index and makes it sound worse. Arguably, in the winter there's still a heat index and in the summer a wind chill, but that would make the news sound good, and mess up the whole strategy.

Bad news sells. Mostly it's totally made up BS. Global warming is another made up tragedy to distract us from real issues like wars, poverty, wealth disparity, care for the elderly and mentally ill, etc.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#46

Post by micromacrofoot »

badcppdev wrote: post #32

https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/story/Article/2... I think the Overton window needs to shift soon to include the idea that widespread government intervention will be required to avoid 800 million climate refugees

the US can barely manage to pass its annual budget, I'm not hopeful

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#47

Post by badcppdev »

lm28469 wrote: post #36
badcppdev wrote: post #32

https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/story/Article/2... I think the Overton window needs to shift soon to include the idea that widespread government intervention will be required to avoid 800 million climate refugees

> will be required to avoid 800 million climate refugees "to handle" or "to mitigate" it's way to late for "to avoid"

I would like to be an optimist and disagree with you but my optimism is being used with hoping that I don't end up stuck on the wrong side of the planet to my family when airlines have to start charging for the impact of the carbon released.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#49

Post by brookst »

micromacrofoot wrote: post #46
badcppdev wrote: post #32

https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/story/Article/2... I think the Overton window needs to shift soon to include the idea that widespread government intervention will be required to avoid 800 million climate refugees

the US can barely manage to pass its annual budget, I'm not hopeful

A large portion of the US populace wants to maintain/increase fossil fuel usage just to stick it to their perceived enemies. Also not hopeful.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#50

Post by nologic01 »

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one.

It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it would be good to overlay it as a distinct effect.

Being clear about what is happening and why (to the extend that it is known and understood) is important, on at least two counts:

There is already a segment of the population that drifts into panic and depression as a result of all the viral social media climate change echo chambers. Panic is not the way to address our sustainability challenges that are deep-seated and systemic. The flip side of short-term focused panic is switching off into apathy, or even cry-wolf type incredulity - if a few years down the line these extremes are temporarily subdued.

The other segment of the population that can be affected by a clear and well founded explanation of what is happening are those sitting on the fence about climate change or feeling skeptical for legitimate reasons. Obviously nothing will convince nut-cases or deeply compromised individuals that have large personal stake in the status-quo (and they are many).

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