September was the most anomalously hot month ever • Hacker News Board

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#71

Post by Retric » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:51 PM UTC

mym1990 wrote: post #44

staunton wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has that kind of metaphor ever helped in a real case/conversation you know of? The metaphor illustrates how what you're saying might be true and helps understand what you mean. Somebody who disagrees usually understands what you mean by "it's getting warmer". They just don't believe it. At least that's my experience. Convincing someone in such matters is completely impossible unless there is a prior personal relation…

Trying to convince someone opposite of something they really really believe in has a very low probability of success, you will just ground them more into their belief. There are different pathways, but they take empathy and patience, some traits a lot of people lack when communicating with counter parties.

You can convince people, but you can’t do it with a simple online post. Proselytism covers a wide range of tactics that convince people to change deeply held beliefs independent of how accurate what you’re trying to convince them is. Science has a major advantage here because you can provide actual evidence, but you don’t need to limit yourself to using evidence alone.

At the extreme end deprogramming the is often referred to in terms of ‘cult deprogramming’ but it’s more widely applicable and more effective than it has any right to be. Clearly unacceptable in this context, but worth understanding from a psychological perspective.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#72

Post by seanw444 » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:51 PM UTC

karol wrote: post #68

[flagged]

Unfortunately in my area, it's consensus that this year sucked with how consistently cold and stormy it was. Summer felt like nothing, and fall wasted no time swooping in.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#73

Post by FFP999 » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:52 PM UTC

yakattak wrote: post #4

Can someone help me understand why when there’s a record cold month, there’s a convo like this > non-believer: “see global warming doesn’t exist” > believer: “you can’t measure this on a monthly scale, it’s too slow of a process” But often when the case is reversed, it’s used as evidence of global warming? I know global warming is real and I am a firm believer in it but this duality seems to cause a lot of issues whe…

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Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#74

Post by brookst » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:53 PM UTC

naiv wrote: post #31

mc32 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It is a shame that your comment got downvoted.

It was a lot of words to say “perception is more important than reality”, and delivered in an oblique way hinting at some unstated “narrative” going on, without either explicitly making that point or providing evidence. Kind of the HN equivalent of the angsty teen who will only say “that’s what YOU think” to everyone.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#75

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:53 PM UTC

hotpotamus wrote: post #58

nologic01 wrote: post #50

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

Perhaps those drifting into panic and depression are doing so because we are now clearly seeing undeniable effects and yet denial persists while CO2 emissions creep up seemingly inexorably?

[deleted]

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#76

Post by chimprich » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:54 PM UTC

nologic01 wrote: post #50

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

> It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it would be good to overlay it as a distinct effect.

I've seen some attempts to quantify the difference. E.g. this article tries to illustrate it: https://theconversation.com/july-was-earths-hottest-month-on...

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#77

Post by ilyt » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:54 PM UTC

*so far

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#78

Post by ziddoap » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:55 PM UTC

IKantRead wrote: post #53

zemvpferreira wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do need to urgently discuss the role of the first world towards massive third world calamities. I'm a global warming believer, but I'm starting to question whether the planet warming won't actually be posivite for a lot of first world economies. More solar power, less money spent on heating, less dependent on foreign resources etc etc etc. Meanwhile, poor countries will take the brunt of the disasters due to geogr…

> I'm starting to question whether the planet warming won't actually be posivite for a lot of first world economies Well this is a fun new twist on climate denial. I have a hard time understanding how you can believe this when we've already seen incredible and costly damage in the US caused by climate change in just the last few years. Insurers are pulling out of Florida because they can't afford the increased risk a…

The term "global warming" being seen as interchangeable with "climate change" has really been troublesome, and I think has led a lot of people to think surface warming is the entirety of what "climate change" is.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#79

Post by continuitylimit » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:55 PM UTC

Last week of September in NYC was the coldest I remember this time of year. Rainy, windy and cold.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#80

Post by aaomidi » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 1:56 PM UTC

hotpotamus wrote: post #58

nologic01 wrote: post #50

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

Perhaps those drifting into panic and depression are doing so because we are now clearly seeing undeniable effects and yet denial persists while CO2 emissions creep up seemingly inexorably?

Honestly I’m getting tired of the “thinkers” who are just _don’t panic_. That statement just comes across as so disconnected and also doesn’t actually accomplish something.

If someone is panicking, the correct solution here is to show that there’s a realistic attempt at solving the problem. Not dismissing their valid feelings of dread and panic.