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Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

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Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#151
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

Easy buying is great, but it's only useful if there is also an easy and lossless selling. And there isn't.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#152
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

>I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. I doubt you will find any unbiased opinion. Its important to remember that economists arent solely focused on the IS state. Its not a science, its perception management. The narrative is self fulfilling. I really enjoy the npr article on the Brazilian inflation on this https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/10/…

Totally correct. Was watching an interesting town hall by the Fed for educators, and it was interesting to hear JP say "we have so many fine [Econ] textbooks", and in a different sentence say "it takes a few editions to catch up to our innovations". It was perfectly illustrating what I learned in undergrad Econ .. it is the science of explaining what happened. Extrapolation is fine but under no warranty. I have made major personal blunders relying on established econ theory to hold (especially around housing). My new take is the govt will bail out the masses in some instances, so just follow the trend.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#153
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

"Direct gold ownership is rife with risks" Every kind of ownership comes with "risks". It is stupidity not to own gold "directly". Buying a gold ETF is likely a bad idea like having your cryptocurrencies not under personal control. Precious metals ETF charge a yearly fee. A buddy of mine once developed a financial instrument, where the ETF really owns the metal and does not mimic its spot price but also pays a divide…

Since GP won't say, my guess is the idea was to explicitly not target capital growth, but a fixed value ('does not mimic spot price') - so you buy in at spot or with some some spread, and the dividend pays out by selling the underlying as spot goes up, with some buffer for fees and being able to buy a certain amount as it falls.

If the dividend were also a function of volume & prices of (filled) ETF orders, it could tolerate up to 100% loss.

But that doesn't account for the 'I said precious metals, not gold' hint.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#154
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

You can see it happening right now in Argentina: the local currency is worthless, and people are flocking to ... US Dollars. Not gold, not bitcoins, but good old benjamins. So gold isn't even a good inflation hedge: if you walked the streets of a failing economy (pick one: Argentina, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, there's plenty more) and tried to exchange gold for goods, you're not gonna get far (and will probably get mugged…

To my knowledge, Crypto is pretty big in Argentina, with Bitcoin, Tron, and tether the biggest players.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#155
post #133
post #60

I struggle to find the value in keeping gold. You can't eat it. You can't use it as a tool. You can't even buy groceries with it (well at least today. Point is: it's not a liquidity). But yes, maybe you'll be able to make a profit in the future, by selling it to people who can't eat it or use it as a tool either. Or I guess trade it to save your life in a hypothetical future scenario. It's just a weird way of keeping…

Holding Gold is kinda just like holding a foreign, well accepted, currency. As many unofficially countries use dollars because they are more stable than their own currency. You can buy and sell gold anytime at the bank (at least here in central Europe) just like any other currency. So if you don't trust your own currency it kinda seems like a logical next step. Should the dollar crash it's likely gold won't crash at…

What's the spread in a local bank for different transactions sizes (100g, 1kg, etc..)?

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#156
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why people keep thinking that a financial meltdown means societal meltdown. There's plenty of places where the economy is or has already melted down even right now -- Sri Lanka, Argentina, Venezuela, etc. We can observe what happens when political institutions completely and utterly collapse, because it's happened multiple times already . What happens is not immediate apocalypse where people riot a…

Sri Lankan here. I personally experienced this last year and was very surprised. We Sri Lankans love to criticise ourselves for our wonky moral compasses, so when the early protests started, I stocked up on food and installed an extra CCTV camera, expecting widespread riots and looting. They never came. There were many organised protests, and protesters did clash with riot police around government buildings, but peop…

Very positive post. Thank you for sharing.

My spouse and I both had a short part of our childhood in a poor and wonky South Asian country. We both feel that people (and ourselves) are far less helpful to our neighbours and strangers in the west vs. back home. It actually felt different in the 90s vs. today. I recall being in the west and someone offering me a ride when the subway was closed (like 25 years ago). I just can't see that happening today. Just too many MLM schemes have been pushed on me, and too many reports of crazies on the news .. I dunno.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The prepper scenario of "I've gotta defend myself against mobs out to raid for food" really doesn't happen. > Maybe a civil war breaks out, maybe there are food shortages, but for the most part if violence breaks out, it's organised, mainly in the form of civil wars. If a war breaks out, the tradition is that the armies will raid you for food. The issue was never that other locals would do it. A war breaking out is…

Ah yes, my gun and my gold will protect me against the organised army out to raid for food. That's what I meant -- people get organised very quickly. In Rwanda, people quickly formed armies and militias, the same in Ethiopia, Columbia, and literally every other time this has happened before . One guy is not gonna accomplish much. Civil war is also, by most measures, the least likely outcome. Usually civil war causes…

Thankfully haven't experienced it but my parents and relatives were in challenging situations during some parts of their lives. The point of Gold (as I was taught) is not to store your hoard of wealth but to facilitate getting out.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#158
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Physical gold might have value in situation where financial institutions and markets start to lose any trust in themselves. Either by manipulation, government confiscation or fraud. But, things will be pretty bad at that point from every viewpoint. As essentially global markets are crashing. On other hand, in even bigger crisis gold won't be that valuable at least for a while. If food and fuel are first priority peop…

I don't understand why people keep thinking that a financial meltdown means societal meltdown. There's plenty of places where the economy is or has already melted down even right now -- Sri Lanka, Argentina, Venezuela, etc. We can observe what happens when political institutions completely and utterly collapse, because it's happened multiple times already . What happens is not immediate apocalypse where people riot a…

I think you're saying the same thing as this, but, to me ... The prepper fantasy clearly says more about the ethics/ideology of the person having that fantasy than it does about what a crisis-society looks like. By adopting that lifestyle they're basically giving an early look at how they might behave in crisis, and how they see their fellow man.

And I think you're right; if you look at how people behave in times of flood or famine, they do tend on the whole to come together.

From the outside looking in, I think in part it has to do with the history of parts of the US as a slaveholding society. In a society where a large minority (or in some places even a majority) are under the thumb of coercion, when order breaks down, there will be reprisals and violence. And I think this history has formed a cycle in some parts of the US long after the end of slavery, and also informs a lot of the gun ownership self-defense fetish there. e.g. for me, growing up in rural Canada guns were just a rather boring part of life because people hunted or had farms. But since then the have clearly become a kind of shibboleth, or cultural marker. Gun ownership is apparently at an all time high but actual hunting for meat is at an all time low.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see it happening right now in Argentina: the local currency is worthless, and people are flocking to ... US Dollars. Not gold, not bitcoins, but good old benjamins. So gold isn't even a good inflation hedge: if you walked the streets of a failing economy (pick one: Argentina, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, there's plenty more) and tried to exchange gold for goods, you're not gonna get far (and will probably get mugged…

Why do you think that people in Argentina are flocking to Dollar and not to Bitcoin or Gold? When I look at the search trends in Argentina, I see Bitcoin in a very volatile longterm uptrend, Gold in a longterm downtrend and the Dollar being constantly a distant third: https://trends.google.de/trends/explore?date=all&geo=AR&q=go... Over the 20 years which the Peso has been devaluing, Bitcoin has outpaced the others by…

Using Google trends as a proxy is absurd and a total non-starter. This reeks of SV minset.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Protests are meant to be disruptive". It was a very effective protest, and from my memory almost entirely peaceful, which is way more than can be said of other protests in 2020-21. Honking horns somehow caused more media outrage than actual riots It was surprising to see how quickly people turned around into saying that blue collar workers uniting and striking was a bad thing (with several suggestions that they be f…

> blue collar workers uniting and striking don't get to close off access to and from work sites for days and weeks on end, nor do they get to block customers. > protesting government authoritarianism is A-OK in my book - but blocking intersections and pissing off fellow citizens and stopping their free travel is not. The line crossed, in the view of many people who might have otherwise supported them, was the nature…

So clearly you would have supported the same things - suspension of Charter/Constitutional rights, during the BLM protests when businesses were burnt down?
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