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Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

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Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#111
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

You can see it happening right now in Argentina: the local currency is worthless, and people are flocking to ... US Dollars. Not gold, not bitcoins, but good old benjamins. So gold isn't even a good inflation hedge: if you walked the streets of a failing economy (pick one: Argentina, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, there's plenty more) and tried to exchange gold for goods, you're not gonna get far (and will probably get mugged…

Not exactly. I just sent this link to my (Argentine) friends with a different observation. My observation was: The United States is starting to look like Argentina.

You must understand: Most Americans are not accustomed to shoving a third party currency under their mattress, or buying physical gold. The phenomenon of hyperinflation is foreign to them, and there's a steep learning curve.

The actual significance of this is that metal is being offered at a "blue dollar" rate by one of the three largest retailers in America. Prior to there being any concept of blue dollars here. This is going to influence spot prices. The people buying this are too stupid to even go to their local coin dealer. (Which I do, sometimes, go to my local coin dealer - and trust me - the people there to buy are generally pretty stupid).

If I had an hour, I'd like to expound on the significance of Americans buying precious metal at a loss through a giant vertical monopoly. But I'll leave it at the fact that they seem to be starting to alert themselves to the one critical thing that has defined Argentinian inflation for the past 20 years: Bullshit figures from the government saying the currency is stabilized, at the same time as the government takes obvious punitive measures to curb inflation. This leads to distrust which leads to the demolition of the currency.

Argentines can take a 20% drop in the Peso with a morning medialuna. Americans have no fucking idea what's going on. Americans have barely begun to put together the networks to measure it - and is evidenced by Costco taking advantage here, Americans have absolutely no peer-to-peer ways of negotiating the value of a dollar against value anymore. That's quite a dangerous situation, because it means prices are psychologically still thought of as an "act of God" as opposed to any true understanding of who is outpacing whom.

Like I said, inflation and hyperinflation especially are a steep learning curve.

If I were living in BsAs, I'd begin looking for something else to put under the floorboards besides USD. And voting for that clown who wants to tie ARS to USD as if it was 1983 is probably like trying to get tickets to the Titanic right before it sinks. You can do better than resurrecting Menem's economy. (Then again, the Fernandez are even bigger clowns, which is why I refuse to engage in anyone's politics in Argentina).

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#112
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

Costco really doesn’t have any appreciable margin on their products. Their net profit[0] is only a tiny bit more than their membership fees - effectively they sell their merchandise “at cost” (including overhead).

0: https://www.reddit.com/r/Costco/comments/16tae6a/how_does_co...

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#113
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

When I looked into this, the consensus seemed to be that the best form of gold, if you want to physically hold it yourself, is gold coins minted by reputable national mints. American Gold Eagles, South Africa Krugerrands, etc. These trade at close to spot. And a 1 oz Krugerrand or Gold Eagle is about $20,000. If you can afford enough volume of those that it’s difficult to secure them, you can afford to secure them.

Sort of. You want minted bullion. Usually they're capital gains free too. Nonetheless I don't think gold is a great investment for preppers or for just normal investing. There are also some very serious environmental/human rights concerns with gold that keep me out.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#114
post #32
post #16

Sounds like Indians. The craze for gold in India is unbelievable. It’s common thing for Indians to buy gold from middle east and bring it to India.

Something I like about India is they actually use gold, unlike many other gold purchasers. India is a great source for beaten leaf gold - you can buy "books" of hand beaten tissue thin gold which is useful both for gilding idols and for other craftwork (eg: glassblowing).

This is something I haven't thought of! Growing up in India, I know that majority of the Indians have their gold in the form of jewelry, and man I've seen people with so much jewelry it's borderline insane (coming from a guy who'd call himself minimalist). I certainly haven't seen people in any other country use gold/jewelry as much as Indians do.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#115
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

The only reason for keeping it personally would be barter in case of a total economic collapse. I mean; my precious metal ETF, nuclear energy ETF and accidental USD currency purchase at the right time kept me fully clear of any inflation here in the EU, but I doubt physical gold would do anything like it. However for barter….

I think the true use of physical gold is as a means of carrying wealth from a collapsing financial system to a new one.

That is, it's not a hedge against inflation, it's a hedge against financial system instability/collapse of which severe inflation can be a harbinger.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see it happening right now in Argentina: the local currency is worthless, and people are flocking to ... US Dollars. Not gold, not bitcoins, but good old benjamins. So gold isn't even a good inflation hedge: if you walked the streets of a failing economy (pick one: Argentina, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, there's plenty more) and tried to exchange gold for goods, you're not gonna get far (and will probably get mugged…

Not exactly. I just sent this link to my (Argentine) friends with a different observation. My observation was: The United States is starting to look like Argentina. You must understand: Most Americans are not accustomed to shoving a third party currency under their mattress, or buying physical gold. The phenomenon of hyperinflation is foreign to them, and there's a steep learning curve. The actual significance of thi…

[deleted]

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#117
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

> I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price

Directly-held gold is mostly a scam. In good times, vault gold trades at a premium. (Like diamonds, try to sell your ingot of gold for anywhere close to commodity spot.) In bad times, someone will stab you for it.

Unless you have $100+ million, where you can charter your own logistics outside government-sanction lines to e.g. aerolift you [1], your family and your gold across national borders, directly-held gold isn’t doing anything for you.

There are vanishingly few cases where your vault-held gold certificates are valueless while your directly-held gold has value.

[1] Also, news flash, when dictators flee they carry dollars. Gold is heavy and traceable if you’re using proper bars.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#118
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

"Direct gold ownership is rife with risks" Every kind of ownership comes with "risks". It is stupidity not to own gold "directly". Buying a gold ETF is likely a bad idea like having your cryptocurrencies not under personal control. Precious metals ETF charge a yearly fee. A buddy of mine once developed a financial instrument, where the ETF really owns the metal and does not mimic its spot price but also pays a divide…

Where does the money come from for the dividend? If company profit or gold price goes down does the dividend become negative?

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#119
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_2_of_the_Canadian_Ch...

It's not the free speech rights of the truckers that was the issue in Canada. The problem came with the freedom of assembly, which is bound up with the right to protest ... and long curtailed with restrictions from causing substantial disruption. That last part was the line crossed when roads were shutdown for days on end, horns blared round the clock, etc. Additionally, IIRC, the Canadian Gov't didn't debank individ…

"Protests are meant to be disruptive". It was a very effective protest, and from my memory almost entirely peaceful, which is way more than can be said of other protests in 2020-21. Honking horns somehow caused more media outrage than actual riots

It was surprising to see how quickly people turned around into saying that blue collar workers uniting and striking was a bad thing (with several suggestions that they be forced to work somehow), that protesting government authoritarianism is in fact fascism, that calling someone a Nazi is somehow supporting Naziism, and that the government coercing people by threatening their livelihoods due to their political activities (or refusing medication), and deciding what is and isn't "legitimate" political views, is actually defending democracy

And I have no faith in "yes the law has technical pathological cases but obviously nobody would do that". I used to, but I've just seen enough cases of the letter of the law being twisted with complete disregard to the spirit. E.g. practically any law to do with terrorism

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Direct gold ownership is rife with risks" Every kind of ownership comes with "risks". It is stupidity not to own gold "directly". Buying a gold ETF is likely a bad idea like having your cryptocurrencies not under personal control. Precious metals ETF charge a yearly fee. A buddy of mine once developed a financial instrument, where the ETF really owns the metal and does not mimic its spot price but also pays a divide…

Where does the money come from for the dividend? If company profit or gold price goes down does the dividend become negative?

Nope. But please understand that I can't elaborate this since I still think it is a nice idea. But I give you a hint: I talked about precious metals, not gold. :-)
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