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Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

asia.nikkei.com

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Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#61

Post by cf141q5325 »

zelos wrote: post #14
bartvk wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your first point about price, I think is skewed by the high energy prices in UK and Europe. Elsewhere in the world, it may be a lot more attractive. Your point about having to "inevitably replace an EV battery after a few years", did you mean "incidentally", instead of "inevitably"? The rest of your points may be valid or not, I don't know. But I feel like the picture is more nuanced.

The price point is wrong. Even charging at peak times EVs are cheaper. Charging overnight EVs are far cheaper.

Which country are you from that you still have cheaper night rates for power? Or is that something specific to EV charging stations?

Germany had this for a while with storage heaters but it got phased out a decade ago.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#62

Post by cjrp »

bamboozled wrote: post #3

Meanwhile in Japan I can't buy a 4WD mini van that's fully electric, one of the most common petrol car form factors in Japan. They can't even do the basics in their own home market. Good luck Toyota, you will need it.

Does seem like the kei car/truck/van market would do quite well with full-EV. Lightweight, low speeds, short trip distances.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#63

Post by hdougie »

cf141q5325 wrote: post #61
zelos wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price point is wrong. Even charging at peak times EVs are cheaper. Charging overnight EVs are far cheaper.

Which country are you from that you still have cheaper night rates for power? Or is that something specific to EV charging stations? Germany had this for a while with storage heaters but it got phased out a decade ago.

In the UK, there are a number of tarrifs targeted at EVs ranging from around 7.5p to 11p p/kWh. Some are type of use (i.e. they monitor exactly what goes into your EV and give you a rebate for the amount that went to your EV) and others are time of use like the traditional night time tarrifs.

I'm on Intelligent Octopus which gives 7.5p p/kWh guaranteed on any electricity use from 11.30pm to 5.30am. Outside of that, if you allow it to manage your EV charge schedule, you can actually get the lower rate at other times of the day I'm guessing subject to general grid load or wholesale costs dropping. For example, I've had my EV charge until 7.30am on a couple of occasions, still at the lower rate.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#64

Post by fomine3 »

bamboozled wrote: post #3

Meanwhile in Japan I can't buy a 4WD mini van that's fully electric, one of the most common petrol car form factors in Japan. They can't even do the basics in their own home market. Good luck Toyota, you will need it.

JDM minivan is one of the most difficult form factor for BEV because it's extremely optimized for internal space. It's better for Toyota to release and sell more SUV BEVs on foreign markets to compete. JDM minivan would be the released slowly because there's no BEV competitor in foreseeable future.

Imported vans has been a joke for Japanese passengers, but I'd like to see how Chinese minivans does well (or not, maybe too big for Japan).

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#65

Post by oblio »

niclo wrote: post #59
oblio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same wit…

> The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphone market. If I look at BYD catalogue in the italian website I can see: - the Dolphin starting from about 36k€ when there…

> ps: Asian phone manufacturers is much different from China phone manufacturers given that in EU all put together they barely reach Samsung market share.

Huawei was taking off like a rocket in Europe before the US kneecapped them.

> Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphone market.

That's always step 1, exactly what Japan (60s, 80s) and Korea (90s, 00s) did. They all move up after a while. Japan, especially, smashed US car companies.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#66

Post by reacharavindh »

blkhawk wrote: post #60
reacharavindh wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in the Netherlands. I wish I had the right conditions to switch over from my VW Golf Diesel :-( My home electricity costs 0.4EUR/kWh. I live in a terraced house/townhouse with no dedicated parking - this means I cannot charge my car at home/residential electricity rates eventhough I have solar panels in my roof that generates more electrcity than I use in a year. So, for my constraints, I will only consider an…

I think that parking spaces will eventually come with slow charging systems - combined with better "standby" power draw from electric cars everybody might suddenly get away with just plugging in the car every time they park. Maybe they could be even made "free" or very cheap in the sense that you mostly pay for it by wear and tear on your battery (it would only charge to 70% guaranteed and everything above it could b…

One thing at a time... Even requiring the power utility companies to install a standard slow charger at most road side parking spots would go a long way to encourage adoption of electric cars in the cities(where it makes the most sense already for short commutes). This is simply an additional avenue for the power companies to sell electricity to consumers. Why wouldnt they jump on the business opportunity?! The regulatory hurdle and safety of design needs to be moved first, and then the market can take over.

I dont think using electric car batteries as a distributed grid storage is ever going to fly though. Every consumer will worry about the battery cycle degradation and not sign up for such a thing.

At the scale at which storage is needed in the grid, it would make sense to make huge energy storage facilities with cheaper/lower density energy storage solutions like redox batteries, compressed air energy storage or closed loop compressed liquid solution etc supplemented by a buffer of LFP banks to get through the variations in energy supply by day/night or even through a week.

Seasonal variation is a bit of a harder problem though. What do we do when the winds dont blow and the sun doesnt shine for more than 10 days at a time?! We need to build out _modern_ CNG power plants that can be utrned on at high capacities ONLY at such times, while they idle out the rest of the times abd not pollute unnecessarily.

I believe this is a technically solvable problem. However, we need political will to not look at the short term and think for the long term good to back such efforts and see it through.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#67

Post by cf141q5325 »

hdougie wrote: post #63
cf141q5325 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which country are you from that you still have cheaper night rates for power? Or is that something specific to EV charging stations? Germany had this for a while with storage heaters but it got phased out a decade ago.

In the UK, there are a number of tarrifs targeted at EVs ranging from around 7.5p to 11p p/kWh. Some are type of use (i.e. they monitor exactly what goes into your EV and give you a rebate for the amount that went to your EV) and others are time of use like the traditional night time tarrifs. I'm on Intelligent Octopus which gives 7.5p p/kWh guaranteed on any electricity use from 11.30pm to 5.30am. Outside of that, i…

Thanks for the detailed answer!

That sounds like part of it is subsidies. I talked with somebody at a electricity supplier a few years back and he mentioned possibly adding tarrifs aimed at grid load balancing in the future. So cheaper power for stuff like freezers if you turn their control over to the supplier. What you describe sounds similar.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#68

Post by Rygian »

scarygliders wrote: post #58
Rygian wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what's the price of a kWh where you live. Where I live (France), at 0.22 €/kWh: - If I use Tesla Superchargers (ie. a long-distance trip), my expenditure in power is half of what I'd pay for petrol. - If I charge at home (ie. 95% of my car use), my expenditure is between one half and one third. and the ride is so much more fun. My car battery is 4 years old and retains almost the same charge as when it w…

According to my "smart" meter, my electricity tariff - which is variable rate - is currently 28.59 UK pence per KWh, which roughly translates to 0.33 of your Euros/KWh. Plus a ridiculous "standing charge" of 68 UK pence per day. As to the rest of your points, if your EV works out for you, good for you, but not everyone is living in your particular circumstances. I'm based in Scotland in a particularly rural area. We…

The "top-up numerous times" is actually "once every 200 km or less often" for most EVs. You might even not need to top up your battery if your sleeping arrangements include a destination charger.

About the saturation point, I fully agree. There are two mitigating circumstances though:

1.- EV drivers with an option to charge at home will do that most of the time; apartment dwellers don't have it so easy, but at least in France the law is on their side to set up charging spots if they have a private parking spot.

2.- Building new high-speed charging stations is not very expensive, and does not require a large amount of maintenance in the long run.

One last point: the convenience afforded by ICEs and petrol stations should become stigmatized, and I wish for a tipping point in public perception, where driving an ICE where an EV would do is seen as a selfish and disrespectful choice.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#69

Post by bamboozled »

cjrp wrote: post #62
bamboozled wrote: post #3

Meanwhile in Japan I can't buy a 4WD mini van that's fully electric, one of the most common petrol car form factors in Japan. They can't even do the basics in their own home market. Good luck Toyota, you will need it.

Does seem like the kei car/truck/van market would do quite well with full-EV. Lightweight, low speeds, short trip distances.

A friend just bought a Mitsubishi EV kei van, it's an absolutely amazing car. I rode it in the other day and how I felt afterwards was betrayed. Betrayed that it was the most superior passenger experience I can remember, no noise, no smell, awesome acceleration, regenerative breaking, solar charged. I want one...the trouble is that we live in an area with snow and a 4WD is important and they only do a 2WD for now.

We've been ripped off as consumers for way too long.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#70

Post by niclo »

oblio wrote: post #65
niclo wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphone market. If I look at BYD catalogue in the italian website I can see: - the Dolphin starting from about 36k€ when there…

> ps: Asian phone manufacturers is much different from China phone manufacturers given that in EU all put together they barely reach Samsung market share. Huawei was taking off like a rocket in Europe before the US kneecapped them. > Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphon…

Yes of course, but today's japanese and korean cars are well renowned and considered top in class, what about Xiaomi and other chinese smartphone brands ?

Severely lagging behind Apple and Samsung and price-to-quality ratio it's kinda meh, completely different evolution.

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