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Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

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Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#51

Post by reacharavindh »

hdougie wrote: post #21
scarygliders wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have all the best and lovely EV tech. ever, but until and unless electricity prices come down, and "filling up" an EV with stored energy is cheaper than filling up an ICE or hybrid vehicle, AND you get the same range in an EV that you can with an ICE vehicle, then EV's - currently - aren't a rational and wise choice for the average consumer. Electricity prices are going through the roof here in the UK, which…

Also from the UK (and recently converted petrol head), and anyone sensible who is charging at home is not paying the average day rate on their electricity. For example, we currently pay on average 7.5p p/kwh on our electricity. We can fully "fill" our car for around £4.50 which will buy us between 240 and 300 miles depending on type of driving. For comparison, I took our 3 year old relatively efficient ICE car to top…

I live in the Netherlands. I wish I had the right conditions to switch over from my VW Golf Diesel :-(

My home electricity costs 0.4EUR/kWh. I live in a terraced house/townhouse with no dedicated parking - this means I cannot charge my car at home/residential electricity rates eventhough I have solar panels in my roof that generates more electrcity than I use in a year. So, for my constraints, I will only consider an electric car when it becomes more economical to fill up at a public charger than a diesel car, and purchase costs come significantly down than what they are now.

I know I should not be contributing to the problem by warming up the planet. I'd instead control my urges to use the car and use public transport as much as I can, bike as much as I can(it gets me some exercise and fresh air, so why not?!). But, I'll hold on to my existing diesel car for those occasional IKEA trips, longer trips to vist the in-laws (Netherlands Austria) instead of buying a new electric car which will certainly contribute to more emissions during its manufacturing.

I wish the EU countries see the elephant in the room and act sensibly by ramping up electricity generation at break-neck pace to 1. reduce the electricity prices, and 2. make people choose electric cars because it is the more convenient and economical choice than just wanting to save the planet out of good heart.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#52

Post by [deleted] »

rsynnott wrote: post #38
scarygliders wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have all the best and lovely EV tech. ever, but until and unless electricity prices come down, and "filling up" an EV with stored energy is cheaper than filling up an ICE or hybrid vehicle, AND you get the same range in an EV that you can with an ICE vehicle, then EV's - currently - aren't a rational and wise choice for the average consumer. Electricity prices are going through the roof here in the UK, which…

If you’re on the national grid, this simply isn’t the case. If you’re, like, the only resident of a remote island with no grid connection and run your own diesel generator, then perhaps not, but you are the edgiest of edge cases. (Also you probably don’t have that much use for a car, such an island being unlikely to have a car ferry service).

[deleted]

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#53

Post by ZeroGravitas »

pbmonster wrote: post #39
KingOfCoders wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is Germany "unable to cope with the current electricity demand"? People use solar power to power their EVs here (We have solar power but no car).

Electricity is over 30 ct/kWh in Germany, and short-term, they will be unable to offer it much cheaper. Does that mean black-outs and people not getting electricity? No, but at those prices, heavy industry like steel mills and aluminum foundries will have to move abroad. And it won't get better with the numbers of EVs on the roads going up. Germany burns around 50M tons of gasoline per year. If you want to replace th…

About half of that is taxes and they are currently proposing to drop it to the minimum allowed under EU rules

> The absolute bottom rate for electricity taxation is €0.5 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) compared to today’s rate of €20.5 per MWh – meaning the envisaged reduction could reach about 95%.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/ber...

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#54

Post by oblio »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #48
oblio wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out So, like 90% of the income and profits for a hardware company?

Pretty much yes.

The is the "only" warranted? :-)

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#55

Post by blkhawk »

vixen99 wrote: post #8
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no fundamental reason why electricity prices be rising. Solar and wind have been dropping at nonlinear rates for a decade,and likely will for another decade. They are already the cheapest power sources by LCOE than even natural gas turbine. I don't live in the UK, but in the US the electrical cost of recharging an electric car was far less than fueling a gas car even before the current rise in gas prices. Lon…

Cheaper at what cost? Two wrongs don't make a it right so putting aside issues with fossil fuel, let's not ignore an elephant in the room in terms of the human rights issues involved in the electric vehicle supply chain? This is no minor matter. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/electr...

Oil is completely conflict free and has never caused any human rights issues ever. /s

Sorry but nobody talks about that elephant in the room in terms of the human rights issues involved in the gasoline vehicle supply chain. Plus there are big overlaps between the supply chains of electric and fossil fuel car. This whole argument is inane.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#56

Post by touristtam »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #4
cf141q5325 wrote: post #2

In comparison the drop in sales for Volkswagen EVs following the end of subsidies https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37637715

Ok, look, this isn't complicated. Here's some kind-opinion, kinda-fact points: 1) Tesla is making vehicles with EV drivetrains at cost parity or less than an ICE car (depends on the actual reporting on Tesla's per-car margin accuracy). This number is somewhere around $100/kwhr at the pack level. 2) EV drivetrain cost has been steadily falling at nonlinear rates for a decade, with very much runway. 3) CATL and other b…

> But if an EV costs 25-40% less than an ICE

That is a big if considering traditional car manufacturer are still struggling with their chip orders. And I haven't seen major announcement regarding new fab being build for the car manufacturing industry. So unless there are big changes outside the usual battery industry, the price of the car will remain the same.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#57

Post by cf141q5325 »

robertjpayne wrote: post #28
londons_explore wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no catalytic converters to steal.. I predict that within 10 years gangs will start stealing EV batteries. With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car. Then take it away and connect it to the grid as stationary storage and earn a few thousand dollars a year in balancing fees.

I really doubt this. Messing with high voltage battery packs will get people killed very fast. It's not an inert part with barely any risks. That doesn't take into the account the software required to safely and properly charge these packs that will likely be factory or dealership locked to a vehicle if thefts start to happen on a larger scale.

>I really doubt this. Messing with high voltage battery packs will get people killed very fast.

I dont think the safety argument holds much weight. For comparison, there is a lively market in Europe for WW2 relics. People dig up former front lines by night (sometimes even with heavy equipment) and burn out any explosives they can find to sell the "decommissioned" shells to collectors.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#58

Post by scarygliders »

Rygian wrote: post #12
scarygliders wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have all the best and lovely EV tech. ever, but until and unless electricity prices come down, and "filling up" an EV with stored energy is cheaper than filling up an ICE or hybrid vehicle, AND you get the same range in an EV that you can with an ICE vehicle, then EV's - currently - aren't a rational and wise choice for the average consumer. Electricity prices are going through the roof here in the UK, which…

I'm not sure what's the price of a kWh where you live. Where I live (France), at 0.22 €/kWh: - If I use Tesla Superchargers (ie. a long-distance trip), my expenditure in power is half of what I'd pay for petrol. - If I charge at home (ie. 95% of my car use), my expenditure is between one half and one third. and the ride is so much more fun. My car battery is 4 years old and retains almost the same charge as when it w…

According to my "smart" meter, my electricity tariff - which is variable rate - is currently 28.59 UK pence per KWh, which roughly translates to 0.33 of your Euros/KWh.

Plus a ridiculous "standing charge" of 68 UK pence per day.

As to the rest of your points, if your EV works out for you, good for you, but not everyone is living in your particular circumstances. I'm based in Scotland in a particularly rural area. We recently went on a trip to the Isle of Skye, and made a >500 mile round trip on one tank of petrol in my Prius, which included driving around the island in it, without having to top up numerous times or having to even try finding a charging station if we were in an EV.

And say everyone switches to EVs - there surely must come a saturation point at which the demand for a charging station is greater than the availability of one. Compare that to popping into a petrol station for a few minutes, filling up, and setting off again, and not having to worry about filling back up again until a long time later compared to having to top up a battery more frequently.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#59

Post by niclo »

oblio wrote: post #23
Tade0 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully contr…

In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same wit…

> The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't

Currently chinese cars are perceived as super low quality and the only strong selling point they have is the price, as they had when Huawei, Xiaomi and other brands entered the smartphone market.

If I look at BYD catalogue in the italian website I can see:

- the Dolphin starting from about 36k€ when there's the Peugeot e2008 starting from 31k€ and FIAT 600 starting from 31k€ as well

- the Atto 3 starting from about 42k€ when rumors say the Peugeot e3008 will start from about 46k€

- two higher end models which are perfectly matched by BMW offerings at the same price and with comparable performance, not even looking at other premium brands such as Audi or Mercedes

I specifically made the comparison with BYD but I'm happy to give a look at other brands you could suggest.

Even considering chinese carmakers pricing power and old school carmakers lagging behind, I honestly can't see anything disrupting here.

ps: Asian phone manufacturers is much different from China phone manufacturers given that in EU all put together they barely reach Samsung market share. On the same note, let's not forget there are many established asian carmakers outside China ready to take their slice of the cake.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#60

Post by blkhawk »

reacharavindh wrote: post #51
hdougie wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also from the UK (and recently converted petrol head), and anyone sensible who is charging at home is not paying the average day rate on their electricity. For example, we currently pay on average 7.5p p/kwh on our electricity. We can fully "fill" our car for around £4.50 which will buy us between 240 and 300 miles depending on type of driving. For comparison, I took our 3 year old relatively efficient ICE car to top…

I live in the Netherlands. I wish I had the right conditions to switch over from my VW Golf Diesel :-( My home electricity costs 0.4EUR/kWh. I live in a terraced house/townhouse with no dedicated parking - this means I cannot charge my car at home/residential electricity rates eventhough I have solar panels in my roof that generates more electrcity than I use in a year. So, for my constraints, I will only consider an…

I think that parking spaces will eventually come with slow charging systems - combined with better "standby" power draw from electric cars everybody might suddenly get away with just plugging in the car every time they park. Maybe they could be even made "free" or very cheap in the sense that you mostly pay for it by wear and tear on your battery (it would only charge to 70% guaranteed and everything above it could be used by the system at any time while its plugged in).

A system like that would be something that probably needed to be implemented at a level that works in several countries.

eventually such a setup could be a large component of the buffer renewables need together with storage in houses and at the municipal level.

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