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Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

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Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#21

Post by hdougie »

scarygliders wrote: post #5
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, look, this isn't complicated. Here's some kind-opinion, kinda-fact points: 1) Tesla is making vehicles with EV drivetrains at cost parity or less than an ICE car (depends on the actual reporting on Tesla's per-car margin accuracy). This number is somewhere around $100/kwhr at the pack level. 2) EV drivetrain cost has been steadily falling at nonlinear rates for a decade, with very much runway. 3) CATL and other b…

You can have all the best and lovely EV tech. ever, but until and unless electricity prices come down, and "filling up" an EV with stored energy is cheaper than filling up an ICE or hybrid vehicle, AND you get the same range in an EV that you can with an ICE vehicle, then EV's - currently - aren't a rational and wise choice for the average consumer. Electricity prices are going through the roof here in the UK, which…

Also from the UK (and recently converted petrol head), and anyone sensible who is charging at home is not paying the average day rate on their electricity. For example, we currently pay on average 7.5p p/kwh on our electricity. We can fully "fill" our car for around £4.50 which will buy us between 240 and 300 miles depending on type of driving. For comparison, I took our 3 year old relatively efficient ICE car to top up the fuel last night - quarter of a tank cost me £20 and only added about 100 miles of expected range (and that's at a push).

Battery packs don't need replacing "after a few years", that's hyperbole.

Having to stop on longer trips is getting better over time - granted, still nowhere near a decent diesel engine but there are plenty of EVs that can do 200-300 miles realistic range now - how many people are honestly doing trips longer than that on a regular basis, and for the ones that are, how many wouldn't already be stopping for a loo break, lunch or a coffee? I'd argue the majority of the population would manage just fine.

Not saying EVs are perfect, but there is still a lot of misinformation out there and they're getting better everyday.

Of course, if you can't charge at home then they simply don't work especially at current public charging prices (seen some stations charging ~80p kw/h which is insane!). Infrastructure still has a long way to go.

As for a Carrington Events, I have thought about this recently and yep, I guess we'd be pretty stuffed. Then again, if such a catastrophic event were to happen, I can't imagine I'd be needing the car for much - we'd likely have much more major things to be worrying about.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#22

Post by londons_explore »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #17
londons_explore wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no catalytic converters to steal.. I predict that within 10 years gangs will start stealing EV batteries. With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car. Then take it away and connect it to the grid as stationary storage and earn a few thousand dollars a year in balancing fees.

That's not nearly as easy as removing a catalytic converter. You can walk off with the catalytic converter. But a battery pack can be a quarter of the vehicle's considerable weight. EVs weight more than fossil fuel cars because of this. You're not going to casually walk off or moped away with 1,000 lbs of battery.

The thieves I see have a truck with 50 catalytic converters in the back.

They could equally have a truck with 3 EV batteries in the back.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#23

Post by oblio »

Tade0 wrote: post #19
epolanski wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan its…

You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully contr…

In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism.

Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up.

The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car.

The EU will probably do the same within max 5 years, European car brands are about to be wiped up if they don't, just like:

* Nokia

* Siemens

* Ericsson

* Alcatel

* Sagem

* ...

etc were wiped out by Asian phone manufacturers.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#24

Post by msh »

scarygliders wrote: post #5
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, look, this isn't complicated. Here's some kind-opinion, kinda-fact points: 1) Tesla is making vehicles with EV drivetrains at cost parity or less than an ICE car (depends on the actual reporting on Tesla's per-car margin accuracy). This number is somewhere around $100/kwhr at the pack level. 2) EV drivetrain cost has been steadily falling at nonlinear rates for a decade, with very much runway. 3) CATL and other b…

You can have all the best and lovely EV tech. ever, but until and unless electricity prices come down, and "filling up" an EV with stored energy is cheaper than filling up an ICE or hybrid vehicle, AND you get the same range in an EV that you can with an ICE vehicle, then EV's - currently - aren't a rational and wise choice for the average consumer. Electricity prices are going through the roof here in the UK, which…

Maybe EV's dont currently make sense in the UK, I dont know, but for rest of europe its not true.

Most summers we take a road trip from denmark to south of france. After we have gotten an EV the cost is soo much lower compared to our previous gasoline cars.

The extra time to charge is not much, esp if you plan just a little bit and fx charge while you are eating lunch.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#25

Post by [deleted] »

londons_explore wrote: post #22
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not nearly as easy as removing a catalytic converter. You can walk off with the catalytic converter. But a battery pack can be a quarter of the vehicle's considerable weight. EVs weight more than fossil fuel cars because of this. You're not going to casually walk off or moped away with 1,000 lbs of battery.

The thieves I see have a truck with 50 catalytic converters in the back. They could equally have a truck with 3 EV batteries in the back.

[deleted]

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#26

Post by oblio »

londons_explore wrote: post #10
dotancohen wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I live electricity prices are about 1/8 the price per kilometer compared to gasoline. And I have rooftop solar, so for me it's even better. And I have not had to suffer a gas station in over a year - that in itself would be worth it even if not for the cost per kilometer. Not to mention no oil or filter to change, no plugs or coil packs to go bad, no catalytic converters to steal...

> no catalytic converters to steal.. I predict that within 10 years gangs will start stealing EV batteries. With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car. Then take it away and connect it to the grid as stationary storage and earn a few thousand dollars a year in balancing fees.

LOL :-))

EV batteries are under the car and connected to many other components. They'd basically need to steal the car itself to do it.

It's far from a trivial thing.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#27

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

londons_explore wrote: post #22
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not nearly as easy as removing a catalytic converter. You can walk off with the catalytic converter. But a battery pack can be a quarter of the vehicle's considerable weight. EVs weight more than fossil fuel cars because of this. You're not going to casually walk off or moped away with 1,000 lbs of battery.

The thieves I see have a truck with 50 catalytic converters in the back. They could equally have a truck with 3 EV batteries in the back.

I'm not saying that it's impossible, just that the weight and economics of it seem a lot less favourable. By an estimated ratio of 3:50, or 6%.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#28

Post by robertjpayne »

londons_explore wrote: post #10
dotancohen wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I live electricity prices are about 1/8 the price per kilometer compared to gasoline. And I have rooftop solar, so for me it's even better. And I have not had to suffer a gas station in over a year - that in itself would be worth it even if not for the cost per kilometer. Not to mention no oil or filter to change, no plugs or coil packs to go bad, no catalytic converters to steal...

> no catalytic converters to steal.. I predict that within 10 years gangs will start stealing EV batteries. With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car. Then take it away and connect it to the grid as stationary storage and earn a few thousand dollars a year in balancing fees.

I really doubt this. Messing with high voltage battery packs will get people killed very fast. It's not an inert part with barely any risks.

That doesn't take into the account the software required to safely and properly charge these packs that will likely be factory or dealership locked to a vehicle if thefts start to happen on a larger scale.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#29

Post by oblio »

bartvk wrote: post #11
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no fundamental reason why electricity prices be rising. Solar and wind have been dropping at nonlinear rates for a decade,and likely will for another decade. They are already the cheapest power sources by LCOE than even natural gas turbine. I don't live in the UK, but in the US the electrical cost of recharging an electric car was far less than fueling a gas car even before the current rise in gas prices. Lon…

> You sound like a shill for British Petroleum Please read the guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

I have mixed feelings about that rule. It's from 15 years ago, I think, and HN wasn't as astroturfed as it is now. There are literally internal Slack channel with automation that monitors HN and alerts marketing teams to react to keywords being mentioned (companies, products).

For example: https://about.gitlab.com/handbook/marketing/developer-relati...

And GitLab is just very open, plenty of companies do the same and frankly many are actually scummy about it, GitLab is actually playing by the books.

It seems like a very naive rule these days.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#30

Post by cf141q5325 »

londons_explore wrote: post #10
dotancohen wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I live electricity prices are about 1/8 the price per kilometer compared to gasoline. And I have rooftop solar, so for me it's even better. And I have not had to suffer a gas station in over a year - that in itself would be worth it even if not for the cost per kilometer. Not to mention no oil or filter to change, no plugs or coil packs to go bad, no catalytic converters to steal...

> no catalytic converters to steal.. I predict that within 10 years gangs will start stealing EV batteries. With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car. Then take it away and connect it to the grid as stationary storage and earn a few thousand dollars a year in balancing fees.

I am honesty surprised to not already see massive theft with bike and scooter batteries.
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