Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

In comparison the drop in sales for Volkswagen EVs following the end of subsidies https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37637715

Ok, look, this isn't complicated. Here's some kind-opinion, kinda-fact points:

1) Tesla is making vehicles with EV drivetrains at cost parity or less than an ICE car (depends on the actual reporting on Tesla's per-car margin accuracy). This number is somewhere around $100/kwhr at the pack level.

2) EV drivetrain cost has been steadily falling at nonlinear rates for a decade, with very much runway.

3) CATL and other battery suppliers have released 150 wh/kg sodium ion and 200+ wh/kg LFP in mass production. The sodium ion density (150 wh/kg) is somewhere around a 300 mile range car with good engineering. The LFP density (200+ wh/kg) should be good for a 400 mile car.

4) the pack-level cost of the cells remains to be seen, but likely the sodium ion pack level cost will drop to 50$/kwhr give or take. The LFP will be in 60-80/kwhr. Note that this is not dependent on lab-to-factory maturation. The cells are already beginning mass production, and the full cost drop is just a function of boring traditional factory construction and logistics.

This means that in about 2-3 years, a car company with a decent EV engineering team will be making cars that cost them, at the core "guts" of the vehicle, about 1/3 to 1/2 less than an ICE car.

If you've driven in a Tesla, you know an EV produces a lot of torque, is quiet, smooth, and a very good riding experience. The downsides of slow recharge are steadily improving.

But if an EV costs 25-40% less than an ICE, and your car company cannot make those vehicles, your car company will cease to exist in short order.

The last five years where VW and other companies started doing the large EV investments, they were following long term trend lines, without acutal substantive technological pathways. So conservative companies like Toyota / FCA / etc could plausibly drag their feet and sell wait an see.

They cannot do that anymore, which is likely why Toyota is making all these announcements only 1 year after questioning EVs and pushing Hydrogen for the nth time. It's the new Sodium Ion and LFP going into production, which is a tangible no-projecction add-up-bill-of-materials that equals: the ICE is not a competitive economic product in the very near future. It is obsolete. Yes it will have inertia, but its days are numbered.

Of course, those numbers are just for the sodium ion / LFP stuff that CATL is putting into production this year.

The roadmaps for sodium ion in 1-3 years is to hit 200 wh/kg (the 400 mile car, or a smaller/cheaper pack for a 300 mile car), and LFP to hit 225-250 wh/kg (the 500 mile car, a cheaper pack for a 400 mile car).

So go ahead and take all my calculations for 150 wh/kg sodium ion and 200 wh/kg LFP and slash them by another 20-30% for reduced drivetrain costs.

Now, what's in the wings in the 5-10 year range? solid state batteries, sodium-sulfur or lithium-sulfur batteries, all in various stages of lab-to-commercialization. Energy densities in the 300-500 wh/kg. Yeah, drop those drivetrain costs even more.

There's no fundamental reason why electricity prices be rising. Solar and wind have been dropping at nonlinear rates for a decade,and likely will for another decade. They are already the cheapest power sources by LCOE than even natural gas turbine. I don't live in the UK, but in the US the electrical cost of recharging an electric car was far less than fueling a gas car even before the current rise in gas prices. Long term even moreso.

Replacement of an EV battery will likely get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. If you read anything about the sodium ion and LFP technologies that are coming to market and the sulfur techs that will likely eventually replace them, the battery replacement will get cheaper and cheaper. Meanwhile I recently replaced my ICE transmission for $6000.

As for long range trips, the recharge times are dropping. Battery distances are increasing so people with long range requirements will probably be able to get 500 mi or longer battery capacities. For some vehicles that want to go even further than that, it will probably be some sort of generator, additional battery trailers or other mechanisms. This will likely be the soul use case that internal combustion engines have an advantage on. The other thing that is pointed out by EV users is that by charging at home you save more time on a daily basis not having to go to the gas station. So overall, unless you drive daily very long distances in the end you'll have more time.

Every modern car is filled to the brim of computers and Carrington events will likely wipe out all of them as well. However, what would you rather have a vehicle that could charge off of potentially solar cells you have on your roof in a disaster? Or would you rather have an IC vehicle that is useless without fuel, and the fuel supply logistics have collapsed in the Carrington event?

You sound like a shill for British Petroleum. Don't worry, you'll be able to buy an ICE and refuel on ICE, likely for several decades if you so choose.

Cheaper at what cost? Two wrongs don't make a it right so putting aside issues with fossil fuel, let's not ignore an elephant in the room in terms of the human rights issues involved in the electric vehicle supply chain? This is no minor matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/electr...

> no catalytic converters to steal..

I predict that within 10 years gangs will start stealing EV batteries. With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car. Then take it away and connect it to the grid as stationary storage and earn a few thousand dollars a year in balancing fees.