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Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

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Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#91

Where's the line for insider trading on something like this? Say you were a low level Splunk or Cisco employee and you had a hunch the acquisition was going to close sometime this week (you're not working on the deal, you just heard through the grapevine that it's happening). Is that considered insider trading?

>Is that considered insider trading?

Yes.

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#92
post #7
post #6

Obviously I don't condone insider trading, but it's nice to see someone go all in and make some real money. If you're going to risk jail time, you might as well do it for life-changing amounts of cash. Contrast this with Stephen Buyer who's going to trial and may well end up in jail for a piddly few $100k.

I expect this trade will indeed change the trajectory of their life.

As in go to jail? I’m pretty sure yes.

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#93
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they obtained info about this through their role as a senator/congressperson, and not just through normal channels. If I understand it correctly: Insider trading off of classified or whatever info they get from their senate/congress job - not illegal (though imo it should be illegal). (Edit: as mandevil points out, strictly speaking illegal, but largely uneforceable/unenforced) Insider trading off of info they got…

Why don’t people track the investments of senators and congresspeople and race to follow them? It seems like an easy way to get nearly insider trading.

This is a thing: https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/senatetrading

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#94

Where's the line for insider trading on something like this? Say you were a low level Splunk or Cisco employee and you had a hunch the acquisition was going to close sometime this week (you're not working on the deal, you just heard through the grapevine that it's happening). Is that considered insider trading?

> Is that considered insider trading?

AFAIU, the use of material non-public information always qualifies as insider trading. It does not matter how you got it, and it does not even matter if you work at the company.

See https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/materialinsiderinformat...

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I initially thought this wasn't the case, but did some research - so for posterity: if you overhear the information in a public setting you may be ok. It depends on whether you have a duty of trust, apparently, and personally I'd run it by a lawyer before firing up Robinhood. [1] Although (1) IANAL and (2) you may still be answering difficult questions if you structure your trades the way this individual did. [1] htt…

There is precedent that even if you are in possession of info that will eventually become public, which you then trade on, you can still be convicted of insider trading. For example, a Printer for Business Week and a Stock Broker traded on pre-publication information and were convicted of insider trading. https://corporateinsiderstrading.wordpress.com/2012/02/01/bu...

> for using stock information in “Business Week” magazine before it was distributed to the public

They traded on information that was non-public at the time of the trade. Why shouldn't that be treated exactly as trading on news of this merger before it was announced? (The merger was eventually going to be known to the public as well, right?)

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#96

Where's the line for insider trading on something like this? Say you were a low level Splunk or Cisco employee and you had a hunch the acquisition was going to close sometime this week (you're not working on the deal, you just heard through the grapevine that it's happening). Is that considered insider trading?

>Is that considered insider trading? Yes.

Legally speaking then, it's best to never make trades on any company that you currently or have previously (because you could still have friends that work there) worked for?

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#97

Where's the line for insider trading on something like this? Say you were a low level Splunk or Cisco employee and you had a hunch the acquisition was going to close sometime this week (you're not working on the deal, you just heard through the grapevine that it's happening). Is that considered insider trading?

IANAL, but probably comes down to whether you had access to material non public information. Ie, what gave you a hunch? If it's anything non public that could have also given others a hunch, had they known like you did, it's probably material non public information. There's no safe harbor for probabilistic insider trading.

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#98
post #51

Let's assume this turns out to be insider trading. Can someone shed a little insight on why this is worthy of a prison sentence? To me, even if they used information they had and we didn't, I don't see who the "victim" of this crime would be. It truly sounds like a "but it's unfair" argument and I'd really like to know why I'm wrong here. Thanks in advance

Options are really zero sum, every dollar you make is necessarily a direct loss for somebody else.

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#99
post #92
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect this trade will indeed change the trajectory of their life.

As in go to jail? I’m pretty sure yes.

You must be new to the United States. Only the poors go to jail (except in the most extreme cases like Epstein, and it still took them 20+ years to do anything to him.

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#100
post #49

Can someone explain the mechanics of this specific trade to a noob? The trader bought 550k options yesterday for SPLK to hit $127/share? Since that seemed highly unlikely they were only priced at $.04 each. but now that SPLK is at $145/share they are worth $18 each? so that would be a profit of ~$10m?

Yes. The one bit you’re missing is that a call option is the right to buy a stock at a certain price typically on or before a certain date.

To make the numbers simple, imagine a stock trades at $10/share. If someone came to you and said: how much would you be willing to pay to have an option to buy the stock for $100/share? The correct answer is: it depends. If it’s the right to buy the stock for $100/share at any point over the next 10 years then that’s worth more than to buy the stock at $100/share in the next day. A stock trading at $10 is unlikely to jump to $100 in a day so the option to by it for $100 is not worth much. It could happen, so it’s worth something. But it’s unlikely. So, again to make the numbers simple, let’s say it’s worth $0.01/option to buy a stock at $100 in the next day when it’s trading at $10 today.

Now imagine it’s the next day and the company with the $10 stock discovers the cure for cancer or invents time travel or perfects cold fusion. News breaks and now it’s trading at $1,000 per share. Now how much is the right to buy the stock at $100 per share worth? The answer is going to be something really close to, but maybe a small discount from, $1,000 (current value of the stock) - $100 (how much you pay based on the option) = $900. So what was worth $0.01 yesterday is worth $900 today.

Let’s say you have $10,000 to invest. If you know in advance the news is going to break you can do two things to (probably illegally) try and profit from it.

1. Buy 1,000 shares of the stock for $10/share. 2. Buy 1,000,000 options to buy the stock for $100/share tomorrow with each option costing $0.01.

With strategy 1 you spend $10,000 to buy something that, after the news breaks, is worth $1,000,000. Not bad. But with strategy 2 you spend $10,000 to buy something that’s worth $900,000,000 after the news breaks.

In both cases you’re likely to at least be investigated. And strategy 2 seems especially suspicious because the risk is so high and the non-illegal reasons for doing it are so few and far between. Very few reasons you’d buy a bunch of call options that only pay off if something causes a stock to move dramatically in 24 hours.

Finally, while short-dated, out-of-the-money call options are not something many if anyone should be playing with, they’re just a different flavor of something very familiar. To put it in context a lot of HN readers will understand more intuitively: a call option is what you often receive when you get equity in a startup. It’s the right to purchase shares at a price (strike price) before a certain amount of time (typically 10 years).

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