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Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

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Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#51
Let's assume this turns out to be insider trading. Can someone shed a little insight on why this is worthy of a prison sentence?

To me, even if they used information they had and we didn't, I don't see who the "victim" of this crime would be. It truly sounds like a "but it's unfair" argument and I'd really like to know why I'm wrong here.

Thanks in advance

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#52
post #45

If everyone looks at a trade like this as prima facie evidence of insider trading, why are these options even for sale? It is like a casino, except if you win the jackpot you get arrested. Because we run our economy under the law that requires stock prices to be set by ignorant people.

The law requires not ignorant people, but equally ignorant people. This extremely well-timed trade is just an indication that the trader may not be equally as ignorant as the rest of us.

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#53
post #51

Let's assume this turns out to be insider trading. Can someone shed a little insight on why this is worthy of a prison sentence? To me, even if they used information they had and we didn't, I don't see who the "victim" of this crime would be. It truly sounds like a "but it's unfair" argument and I'd really like to know why I'm wrong here. Thanks in advance

Whoever sold them those call options, at the very least.

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#54
post #51

Let's assume this turns out to be insider trading. Can someone shed a little insight on why this is worthy of a prison sentence? To me, even if they used information they had and we didn't, I don't see who the "victim" of this crime would be. It truly sounds like a "but it's unfair" argument and I'd really like to know why I'm wrong here. Thanks in advance

If you were the other side of that trade then you’re the victim. For everyone else it erodes trust in the market

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#55
post #51

Let's assume this turns out to be insider trading. Can someone shed a little insight on why this is worthy of a prison sentence? To me, even if they used information they had and we didn't, I don't see who the "victim" of this crime would be. It truly sounds like a "but it's unfair" argument and I'd really like to know why I'm wrong here. Thanks in advance

[deleted]

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#56
post #51

Let's assume this turns out to be insider trading. Can someone shed a little insight on why this is worthy of a prison sentence? To me, even if they used information they had and we didn't, I don't see who the "victim" of this crime would be. It truly sounds like a "but it's unfair" argument and I'd really like to know why I'm wrong here. Thanks in advance

Fair markets are efficient markets. Regulators try to keep the markets fair and efficient. If a market is unfair, participants are scared away, which leads to more inefficiency and potentially a collapse of the market.

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#57

I don't know if this is genuinely suspicious or not. Is buying 20K of options an unusual thing? Or is this something that happens regularly with options expiring worthless or with a small gain - and it just happened to hit big this time? IE "someone bought a lottery ticket and won" - interesting to know if they play the lottery every other day (and don't usually win?)

Buying 20k of options when there's a 99.99% chance of them being worth $0 is pretty unusual, unless you're actively regularly trading in the millions.

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#58
post #49

Can someone explain the mechanics of this specific trade to a noob? The trader bought 550k options yesterday for SPLK to hit $127/share? Since that seemed highly unlikely they were only priced at $.04 each. but now that SPLK is at $145/share they are worth $18 each? so that would be a profit of ~$10m?

No explanation needed. You got it.

An options contract gives you the right to buy or sell a security to a counterparty at a fixed price at any time on or before the expiration date.

As you note, the chances of being able to buy a share from someone on or before Friday for $127 (when the stock was publicly trading below that) was near valueless ($.04). Not anymore!

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#59
post #49

Can someone explain the mechanics of this specific trade to a noob? The trader bought 550k options yesterday for SPLK to hit $127/share? Since that seemed highly unlikely they were only priced at $.04 each. but now that SPLK is at $145/share they are worth $18 each? so that would be a profit of ~$10m?

I mean, it sounds like you have it, what's the question

Re: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition?

#60
post #51

Let's assume this turns out to be insider trading. Can someone shed a little insight on why this is worthy of a prison sentence? To me, even if they used information they had and we didn't, I don't see who the "victim" of this crime would be. It truly sounds like a "but it's unfair" argument and I'd really like to know why I'm wrong here. Thanks in advance

Someone had to sell the that call option . . .

Whoever sold it wouldn't have sold it if they knew a merger would be announced the very next day (or wouldn't have sold it at that price, to be more accurate).

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