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Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

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Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theories being ultimately all we have, there is (or should be) no “chosen” one. People are free to believe whatever—this is a pre-requisite for theories to evolve. There may be a theory that enjoys better predictive success for a while, but if everyone always believed in a singular “chosen” theory then we’d get nowhere: to evolve a better theory, you have to come up with and believe in something other than the preexi…

The chosen explanation should be held to be contingent and corrigible but that doesn’t mean all explanations should be held to the same regard particularly when some can be harmful as well as contradictory.

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Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theories being ultimately all we have, there is (or should be) no “chosen” one. People are free to believe whatever—this is a pre-requisite for theories to evolve. There may be a theory that enjoys better predictive success for a while, but if everyone always believed in a singular “chosen” theory then we’d get nowhere: to evolve a better theory, you have to come up with and believe in something other than the preexi…

The chosen explanation should be held to be contingent and corrigible but that doesn’t mean all explanations should be held to the same regard particularly when some can be harmful as well as contradictory.

"Harm" is essentially circular logic. Assuming we are acting logically, the only harmful theory is a wrong one. And so when speaking of harm, you are assuming the correctness or incorrectness of some theory. This is why having a free and open society where any theory can be comfortably pursued to its natural limits is absolutely critical. Everything should be being constantly challenged to ensure that we aren't just falling into a new dogmatic cycle, as history shows we ultimately always do.

Beyond this I'd also add that many 'rock solid' theories do contradict each other. The obvious example being relativity and quantum mechanics which have mutually exclusive things to say on countless topics ranging from black holes to the nature of time itself. Both work phenomenally well and have abundant evidence in their own bubbles, but side by side - they can't both be true in their current state.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#83

Models help test test our understanding of past events. If you can create a model that reproduces past events, there is a chance that you have understood something about those events. Equally, however, there is a chance that you have created a model that only coincidentally works, because you forced it to do so. When "scientific" articles write that a model "confirms" some conclusion, they are just wrong. Given enoug…

[flagged]

Probably I shouldn't bother responding to your post, but I have a spare minute, so...

This has nothing to do with "religion", except perhaps the religion of people who place far too much faith in models. You can, quite literally, construct a model to do anything you want. Cold fusion? The Fermi Paradox, either side? The sun about to go supernova? No problem.

Of course, scientists generally build models honestly. However, when the models don't do quite what is wanted, it is all too easy to "tweak" them until they do. The scientists know what conclusion they believe in. Their models validate this conclusion. News at 11:00.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chosen explanation should be held to be contingent and corrigible but that doesn’t mean all explanations should be held to the same regard particularly when some can be harmful as well as contradictory.

It is not abnormal for multiple theories or hypotheses to contradict each other. In strictly natural sciences it is usually possible to experimentally rule out some of them, but not always so (for example, sometimes the technology is not there). In philosophy it is often not the case (no experimental means available where concepts like “objective reality” are involved).

For sure but that should change how much regard we hold them in right? The example given by your sibling comment is a great one because we know that there is something we're missing in the explanations given by General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics and that's okay. It doesn't mean that neither are useful just that we understand their explanatory limits. In comparison flat-earth theory is basically completely contradictory to vast swathes of evidence and explanations.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chosen explanation should be held to be contingent and corrigible but that doesn’t mean all explanations should be held to the same regard particularly when some can be harmful as well as contradictory.

"Harm" is essentially circular logic. Assuming we are acting logically, the only harmful theory is a wrong one. And so when speaking of harm, you are assuming the correctness or incorrectness of some theory. This is why having a free and open society where any theory can be comfortably pursued to its natural limits is absolutely critical. Everything should be being constantly challenged to ensure that we aren't just…

"Assuming we are acting logically"... which a lot/most/all of people don't at any given time which is largely the issue at hand.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even natural climate changes can be problematic, such as drier climates precipitating the fall of the Roman empire or the late bronze age collapse.

Or The Samalas eruption - which is believed to have caused the Little Ice Age - and killed 90% of Europeans & North Americans at the time (55M people). I imagine many millions of large mammals and birds and insects also died.

> and killed 90% of Europeans & North Americans at the time (55M people).

That’s very far fetched.

> which is believed

By whom? The little ice age peaked in the 1600s.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not abnormal for multiple theories or hypotheses to contradict each other. In strictly natural sciences it is usually possible to experimentally rule out some of them, but not always so (for example, sometimes the technology is not there). In philosophy it is often not the case (no experimental means available where concepts like “objective reality” are involved).

For sure but that should change how much regard we hold them in right? The example given by your sibling comment is a great one because we know that there is something we're missing in the explanations given by General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics and that's okay. It doesn't mean that neither are useful just that we understand their explanatory limits. In comparison flat-earth theory is basically completely contr…

Flat Earth is more of a sign of protest masquerading as a theory rather than an actual theory. It appears to be more focused on finding elaborate ways to deny other theories rather than seeking truth. It is inelegant, illogical, and cannot be stated without involving a host of conspiracies of low probability. (The fact that one can only adopt it given values/traits/issues that let one seriously believe in those conspiracies may also make it useful for social signaling.)

What I find tragic is that STEM-inclined crowd might have sort of triggered that defensive reaction by supplanting religion directly with natural sciences. Sometimes when you point out something similar to this thread (that physics does not make statements of absolute truth, there are only models of which none can be fully provably correct and complete, etc.) you encounter vicious insistence that the world is literally the way it is described in physics textbooks or Wikipedia—and it will stay that way until we are blessed with a new explanation for how things really are. You can notice how to a religious person this might feel indistinguishable to a competing religion, rather than an orthogonal aspect of worldview (it is completely possible to be both religious and a natural scientist).

Come to think about it, even your comment sounds slightly off to me in this way, primarily due to the mention of “explanatory limits”. I would prefer another term (possibly “predictive limits”). Again, “explanatory limits” makes it sound as if GR or QM (or X or Y) is capable of “explaining” something. Taking a model, just one metaphor that fits how some aspect of apparent reality behaves in response to input or another observation, and using that metaphor to explain how things are in some objective sense (which is what I take “explanatory” means) is, to me, a misuse of the model. The fact that the model works for some of our purposes makes it useful, but does not grant it explanatory powers.

I wish more of us techies resisted the urge to see in natural sciences explanatory powers that they do not possess, and instead branched a bit into philosophy—which can actually provide some grounds for meaningful discussions on topics that are out of scope of natural sciences per se. (As a side-effect, this might also make us more understanding and bearable to talk to for someone on a different bandwagon than ourselves.)

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#88
post #50

> The results confirm the North African Humid Periods occurred every 21,000 years and were determined by changes in Earth's orbital precession. This caused warmer summers in the Northern Hemisphere, which intensified the strength of the West African Monsoon system and increased Saharan precipitation, resulting in the spread of savannah-type vegetation across the desert. So… as we finally exit the current ice age we s…

> So… as we finally exit the current ice age ... If by "Ice Age" you mean period of glaciation - the most recent one ended ~ 11,500 years ago after starting some 120,000 years ago. We're not currently in an "Ice Age" .. although by general expectation of this cycle we should be slowly moving into one . . . save for this recent rapid rise in C02 and atmospheric insulation increase caused by the most recent century of…

> Earth is currently in the ice age called Quaternary glaciation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age

Basic definition is when ice covers both poles

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#89
post #63
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are still in an ice age, just an interglacial part of it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interglacial , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age

Let's not play the dull game of pedantic definitions. The GP to whom I replied referred to the ~ 21 Kyear glaciation cycles associated with humidity changes in the Sahara, I specifically asked about what they meant by "ice age" and pointed out that now other parameters have been altered (the insulative properties of the atmosphere) we can't reliably predict how specific regions will change in the future on the basis…

I’m actually asking the question — when we leave the ice age, will the Sahara turn green? Presumably, based on this paper, the sea water will rise and then yes it will get more rain.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#90
post #49
post #31

I'm not a historian, archeologist, or any sort of relevant expert. But I've long had the pet theory that the Green Sahara is the origin of the Eden Myth. Homo Sapiens origin, lush vegetation, turns to dessert for some reason beyond our comprehension...

I've always interpreted the Eden myth as a memory of the development of agriculture. Before agriculture, people lived as hunters and (mainly) gatherers. The life of a Hunter-gatherer is, surprisingly, mostly leisure, because of the abundance of food and the low population density. Even Kalahari Bushmen, who had been forced to live in the dessert, were found to average only about 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 hours of productive lab…

That's about camels eating cactus.
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