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Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

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Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#61

I've heard about some efforts to regreen the desert by careful planting and geoforming. Anyone know anything about this? It would be cool if it could work, even partially.

I think the key is the lack of water.

In the Sahara and the Middle East, which are sunny and warm, if you add water plants grow fast.

We can imagine future scenarios in which fusion or solar are used to power large-scale desalination and irrigation to represent deserts from the coasts.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#62
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Timbuktu’s population dropped by 4/5ths since the Middle Ages, from a near legendary city to a nearly forgotten one.

Any recommended sources to learn more about it?

Paul MM Cooper's podcasts and video essays on YT are excellent. There's info on Mansa Musa in this episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfUT6LhBBYs

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#63
post #59
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So… as we finally exit the current ice age ... If by "Ice Age" you mean period of glaciation - the most recent one ended ~ 11,500 years ago after starting some 120,000 years ago. We're not currently in an "Ice Age" .. although by general expectation of this cycle we should be slowly moving into one . . . save for this recent rapid rise in C02 and atmospheric insulation increase caused by the most recent century of…

We are still in an ice age, just an interglacial part of it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interglacial , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age

Let's not play the dull game of pedantic definitions.

The GP to whom I replied referred to the ~ 21 Kyear glaciation cycles associated with humidity changes in the Sahara, I specifically asked about what they meant by "ice age" and pointed out that now other parameters have been altered (the insulative properties of the atmosphere) we can't reliably predict how specific regions will change in the future on the basis of the past.

Your own link clearly differentiaties between geological "Ice Age" (Quaternary glaciation of the past 2.5 million years) and the popular notion of "Ice Age" (glacial cycles during that time).

Hence why I carefully wrote:

> If by "Ice Age" you mean ..

Do by all means contribute to the discussion, that is so much better than just playing the game of "gotcha's" (or whatever it is you're doing in your comment above).

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#64
Models help test test our understanding of past events. If you can create a model that reproduces past events, there is a chance that you have understood something about those events. Equally, however, there is a chance that you have created a model that only coincidentally works, because you forced it to do so.

When "scientific" articles write that a model "confirms" some conclusion, they are just wrong. Given enough free variables, you can construct a model that does anything you want. Models confirm nothing.

"The results confirm the North African Humid Periods occurred every 21,000 years"

No, they don't. Did the Sahara green every 21000 years? except when there were ice sheets? Only physical tests can confirm that. Do these greening phases correspond with orbital precession? Statistics can confirm that correlation. Running a model can test hypotheses of causality, but it doesn't "confirm" anything, least of all physical facts.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#65
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Timbuktu’s population dropped by 4/5ths since the Middle Ages, from a near legendary city to a nearly forgotten one.

Any recommended sources to learn more about it?

The Fall of Civilization series: The Songhai Empire - Africa's Age of Gold https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfUT6LhBBYs

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#66

Models help test test our understanding of past events. If you can create a model that reproduces past events, there is a chance that you have understood something about those events. Equally, however, there is a chance that you have created a model that only coincidentally works, because you forced it to do so. When "scientific" articles write that a model "confirms" some conclusion, they are just wrong. Given enoug…

It's like how the model for a snow slab doesn't prove there was a snow slab that slipped over the Dyatlov Pass tent that night, despite what the media claimed about the case being solved. It only shows that it could have, assuming the data and assumptions are correct for that specific location.

Or models showing some solution to the Fermi Paradox, and proponents claiming that the mystery is finally solved. How do they know the model is accurate?

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#67
post #31

I'm not a historian, archeologist, or any sort of relevant expert. But I've long had the pet theory that the Green Sahara is the origin of the Eden Myth. Homo Sapiens origin, lush vegetation, turns to dessert for some reason beyond our comprehension...

I think the general consensus is Mesopotamia that at that time was a lush green area. The myths after all probably originate from the city of UR.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#68

Models help test test our understanding of past events. If you can create a model that reproduces past events, there is a chance that you have understood something about those events. Equally, however, there is a chance that you have created a model that only coincidentally works, because you forced it to do so. When "scientific" articles write that a model "confirms" some conclusion, they are just wrong. Given enoug…

It's like how the model for a snow slab doesn't prove there was a snow slab that slipped over the Dyatlov Pass tent that night, despite what the media claimed about the case being solved. It only shows that it could have, assuming the data and assumptions are correct for that specific location. Or models showing some solution to the Fermi Paradox, and proponents claiming that the mystery is finally solved. How do the…

Because the only thing you can ever have is a theory. The strongest theory is the one that gets chosen. Theories vary in strength over time.

Nothing is ever solved or proven. Theories get stronger and stronger evidence. Believing in a theory doesn't in any way help you make sense of the world. We just do it for expediency of communication.

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#69
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans. How do you want me to segment us to minimize the problem? And we are killing it by diverting water from it.

Segmenting maximizes rather than minimizes. When the problem is caused by all humans in the world, then no one feels pressured to do anything. If you could instead name people individually, they would have to take a stand to actually do something about the issue.

Why would they have to take a stand? Ah because other people would make them take a stand. Why would these other people make the first group of people take a stand? Because they care. What if they don't care? Somebody else should pressure them into caring so they can pressure the ones who can do something about it. Etc etc

My point is that this is what it's usually meant by "we are not doing anything about it". It generally means that there is not enough collective awareness about an issue for the people involved to have enough incentives to do the right thing.

Some people observe that the issue is under somebody else's direct responsibility but draw the conclusion that the responsibility chain ends there.

Other people instead think it's their responsibility to apply some sort of pressure from outside and failure to even attempt to do so extends the responsibility of the inaction to them too.

Some of those people extend their feeling of responsibility to also shame people for not shaming other people.

This is all natural and human and as with all human things it functions well until it fails catastrophically

Re: Why and when the Sahara Desert was green: new research

#70
It’s my understanding that the Amazon is dependent on minerals from the Sahara blowing across the ocean, and if we “re-greened” the Sahara, the Amazon would be negatively affected.

Is this the case, and if so, does that mean the Amazon is only as old as the desert version of the Sahara?

Edit: bit of an answer here for anyone curious: https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2566/what-w...

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