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For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

economist.com

111–120 of 160 posts

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#111
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instead of ad hominem attacks, why don't you come with some data to support your accusations? The Economist is one of the last publications with a rigorous policy of publishing original data sources, in this case the World Bank, hardly the obscure special interest group you make it out to be. If you want to offer alternative interpretations of the data, or point out specific methodological flaws, or whatever, by all…

That was not an ad hominem. I really hate that phrase thrown about. Seems full of questions rather than accusations, and I didn't see obscure mentioned anywhere.

"Isn't this just a capitalist supporting publication trying to justify that which it supports?"

This is pretty close to ad hominem. No substance, just casting aspersions on the Economist's character.

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#112
post #73
post #56

I am genuinely curious why the poverty calculation is done with respect to some dollar threshold ( earning below $1.25 is poor ??). In some part of the world $1.25 (after converting to local currency) per day can buy generous meals 3 times a day and still be left with amount to pay for transport, clothing and housing. But in some part even $10 per day would make you poor. Also, a person earning more than $1.25 now co…

You're absolutely right, which is why that's exactly how poverty is measured. :) The World Bank actually uses a PPP measure of $1.25 per day in 2005 dollars for "extreme poverty". Let's break that down: First, as I said, the World Bank uses a PPP measure of $1.25 per day. PPP stands for Purchasing Power Parity, which means that this is measure doesn't mean "has US $1.25 of local currency at current exchange rates", b…

Thank you for explaining it in detail. Now it all makes sense.

Edit - Without the internet, the forums and the good people, i would have remained as ignorant as I was before.

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#113
post #53
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see your point, but then isn't wealth always relative? If scarcity isn't used as a yard stick for money creation how can inflation be avoided?

I don't understand your question? No, wealth isn't always relative (it's debatable but not so interesting if it's ever relative) - an 'average' farmer in the 1800's (in Europe) had a vastly worse lifestyle than an 'average' farmer today. Today, he is more wealthy in absolute terms. If you and I can each grow 100kg of wheat and 2 pigs per year when we work solitary, but if you can grow 400 kg and I can grow 4 pigs if…

I mean the wealth of one person in 1800, is relative to the wealth of another person in 1800. Likewise for today.

So perhaps comparing the wealth of people in 1800 to today isn't actually that productive, because the baseline has increased?

I think maybe my view of economics is flawed. My basic premise was that traditionally cost has traditionally been defined by scarcity of an item / service and consumer demand. In which case there's no limit to scarcity (say through sale of IP) how can the system work without bubbles developing / the economic system breaking down?

Likewise how can everyone be wealthy when wealth is measured relatively? (i.e. how wealthy you are is defined by how wealthy your neighbour is).

I think I need to read a bit about economics in general.

EDIT: prosperity -> wealth.

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#114
post #34
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see your point, but then isn't wealth always relative? If scarcity isn't used as a yard stick for money creation how can inflation be avoided?

Having enough to eat is having enough to eat: it doesn't matter if someone else eats in a fancy restaurant. Edit: status is relative - if everyone else has a Ferrari, and I only have a Fiat, I probably feel poorer. However, I still have a car that is better, faster, and safer than anything that existed 100 years ago. Edit#2: the above is one reason that worrying about what you have in an objective sense is a lot heal…

Thanks for the edit. I understand what you mean - but then wealth is relative to your neighbour. In which case I don't understand how everyone in 1800s or today can be wealthy.

EDIT: prosperity -> wealth

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#115
post #37
post #29

I have been to Uganda a few years ago to work on a voluntary project. If you see numbers like the number of people living under $1 per day and you see the images on TV you come to think of people in Africa just as pitiful. However, I got the feeling that the people in Uganda are actually more happy than the people in Northern Europe. Maybe wealth is actually inversely correlated with happiness?

I went to Uganda three years ago and I was amazed at their amiability and apparent happiness, especially considering their situation. I was greeted with smiles everywhere I went. I'm from Iceland and in comparison Icelanders are very cold. Perhaps the climate is a factor?

because you were a foreigner, a guest, an attraction.

i went to iceland and only found nice, cheerful people. i am from austria, so did blend in a bit. if you're nordic and visiting uganda your appearance alone makes you something special and easily recognized (and potentially wealthy, so treating you nice might pay off).

that's why being a short-term visitor teaches you practically nothing about a culture. you need to live and work there to actually see the true nature of everyday people, you're novelty needs to wear off.

exceptions to this exist, some cultures simply treat foreigners/tourists badly. classic viennese coffee houses have some of the most irritating waiters on earth, embodying the anti-thesis to the US-services-smile. try getting a cheque in under 5min, i dare you :)

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#116
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think one would most reasonably hold that it is both a form of exploitation and a form of enrichment. The interesting part of the article is that the biggest benefit has been to those in abject poverty: "Most of the progress has been concentrated among the poorest of the poor—those who make less than $1.25 a day. The bank’s figures show only a small drop in the number of those who make less than $2 a day." One inte…

I think one would most reasonably hold that it is both a form of exploitation and a form of enrichment. Enrichment would leave them -- well, enriched, and exploitation would leave them poorer. These possibilities are diametrically opposed, unless you change the referent of "them" midargument.

It can depend on what you count as riches, in part. For example, several African countries are being enriched by oil and mineral sales, if you count wealth in currency. But several of the countries have cut very bad deals (often due to corrupt governments) over their commodity exports, so that they're exporting considerably more valuable commodities than what they're getting paid for them in currency. So if you include commodities as a form of value, net value is flowing away from the country, enriching the government's short-term budget figures at the expense of draining their long-term commodities reserves.

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#117
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is vast scientific evidence that 'happiness' is positively correlated with 'wealth' (both in quotes to indicate that they're broad concepts, I'm not interested in discussing specific definitions). The scientific history is broadly that in the 1970's, it was thought there was little correlation (the 'Easterlin paradox'), in the 1980's and 1990's it was thought there was correlation up to some point of wealth (e.…

Since you seem like you know a lot about this issue, is this consistent with other research that happiness plateaus for people who make 75k/year? http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2010/09/07/the-perfect-salary-fo...

Let me start by saying that although I work in academia in a field where I work with these issues from time to time, I am by no mean an expert in any sense of the word, although I do work with people who are - but in those cases I just do what they say, we're not 'equals' or anything. I'm just saying: I'm not arguing from authority here, no do I want to give off that impression.

The link to the original source in your link is dead, so I'm not quite sure which paper they're talking about, but it sounds like the conclusions in the 'third phase' that I described. Issues are obviously much more complex than just 'make 1000 USD more to feel a lot happier', but I'd be surprised if the study would find a real plateau after 75K, rather than a tapered off increase per dollar amount. Some studies have plots that show relationships on a logarithmic scale (after a 'baseline' cutoff point, e.g. 30k or 50k), making it much move obvious that there is a continually rising correlation (or, to put it more bluntly, that yes, more money does make you 'happier', for certain definitions of 'happy'). Of course there are all sorts of methodological issues at that point, comparing between regions, across cultures, etc etc.

Let me put it this way. There are studies who conclude that e.g. people who own 5 million are happier than those who own 100k. This is easily explained: 5 million makes you 'independently wealthy', taking away the stress from having to hold a job to provide subsistence. Do people who make 75k a year typically have 5 million? No. Would it be reasonable to assume that somebody making top 1% in a community would have the same level of happiness than somebody else in that same community who makes double? Yes. So it's all in what you measure and compare. I'm sure the authors of the article referenced in your link acknowledge that, but that they just had a much more narrow research question; a question that lead to the magic number of 75k within the confines of their research. Those nuances get lost in the AP summary, then again in the WSJ summary, then even worse in the headline. I mean the WSJ blurb even acknowledges that happiness does continue to rise even after 75k.

I'm not sure where I'm going with this, just that your link does describe an increasing effect after 75k and not a 'hard' plateau, so yes it's consistent with what I posted before.

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#118
post #110

If cited in support of the merits of the capitalist mode of production and growth, the absolute number of people below the threshold of hunger (not universally identifiable as "poverty") as calculated via the parity of a centrally controlled currency declining for the first time ever is absolutely embarrassing. I'd expect producers of post-crisis feel-good statistical acrobatics to set their standards much higher.

I'm not sure what your point is. Are you saying that absolute numbers give off the wrong impression because the population overall is declining? If so, you're flat out wrong, because global overall population trends are still pointing up, more pronounced so in the areas where there is the most poverty. Or are you hinting at issues with using PPP as the metric? If so, what's your problem with it?

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#119
post #28
post #24

I am not an economist, but thinking about this briefly .. could it be, the west needs to suffer economically for developing parts of the world to prosper? Are finite economics still relevant in the 21st century?

No. The economy is, by and large, not a zero sum game. Otherwise, why are N billion people by and large better off than however many people there were 200 years ago?

There appear to be some non-infinite limits on some components of standard of living, though. For example, if you extrapolate the resources Americans and Western Europeans use per capita (water, electricity, oil, etc.) to the entire world's population, you at the very least have some serious technological challenges to avoid hitting limits. If technology isn't able to keep up fast enough, it could introduce a bit of a zero-sum element, where a wealthier developing world would put downward pressure on the developed world's standard of living, in that the amount of resources available to an average American might decrease faster than can be offset by technological improvements.

That's some of the current worry with oil, that increased consumption by China et al will mean that oil is more expensive in real terms, and alternatives won't appear fast enough, meaning that Americans' overall standard of living will decrease, as they're forced to either make do with less oil (and stuff oil is an input to), or forego other luxuries to pay for the oil (and indirect-oil).

Past poverty levels, "wealth" becomes much more relative in that it involves wages, imo: a measure of whether you're "well off" is whether you can afford to pay people to do things for you, whether it's clean your house, serve you in a restaurant, tend to your cruise ship, design your website, or work for your company. That definitely depends on relative rather than absolute numbers, with a bigger differential meaning that you can buy more hours of other people's time.

Re: For the first time ever, the number of poor people is declining everywhere

#120
post #24

I am not an economist, but thinking about this briefly .. could it be, the west needs to suffer economically for developing parts of the world to prosper? Are finite economics still relevant in the 21st century?

>could it be, the west needs to suffer economically for developing parts of the world to prosper?

Very, very unlikely. The most relevant example of a modern fall from economic grace is the descent of Argentina, from the seventh-richest country in the world in 1900 to somewhere around 50th today. However, if anything, this had a large negative effect on the economy of South America (which stagnated as Argentina fell), and the modern economic rise of Chile and Brazil seems to be helping the countries surrounding them, or, in essence, prosperity is contagious, rather than conserved.

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