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Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

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Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#81
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course. If automated driving was the only way you could get around it would make no sense to get your own vehicle.

Now you've just alienated two groups: environmentalists that realize cars are bad for the environment, and car people that are interested in driving their own unique vehicles. The former you were never going to get, but the latter could concievably have been on your side about getting bad drivers from behind the wheel. You've gone from "People won't have to drive", to "People cannot drive". And the latter will likely…

Probably. I can see the only automated car rule being for freeways only or large urban areas only and it would still make a significant difference. Or maybe the automated vehicles get their own two lanes on the freeway. Many ways to go about this while still being effective.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#82
post #27

The solution for too much traffic is well known and independent of robotaxis. "Road Pricing" means that vehicles pay for driving on congested roads. The price is set so that road supply and demand match, and traffic flows optimally. It also gives the road owner an income for providing important roads.

Interesting, this reads like a Land Value tax but for roads. I like it,

I think that is an excellent comparison.

The most congested roads often coincide with the most valuable land in city centres, so charging users (public roads) or owners (private toll roads) based on local land value could be useful. It is also advantageous in that it would be progressive.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah what you luddite. You seem more concerned about maintaining artificial jobs and stifling progress to “prevent people getting rich off of it”. Having a 100% automated driving system will fix traffic. It will be better for the environment. It will give us back more time in our day.

The problem of "but my pointless job!" Always has the second part missing, which is "the economy is down a payng job and the displaced family still needs food on the table". If the government offered to meet people's basic needs in these situations (no, the current unemployment system is not sufficient), I bet the complaints would stop. Hell, I bet the Luddites from back in the day wouldn't have minded the technologi…

Yes, but the take away from this for me I’m glad they didn’t get their way. There are going to be growing pains and sometimes you lose, I mean it could be me tomorrow but technology needs to keep progressing!

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#84
post #70
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This already exists in the form of a gas tax and road use taxes (registration). NIMBYs get in the way of building the lanes that already have demand and funding. Extending it further really just ends up as a restriction on the movements of the poor.

> NIMBYs get in the way of building the lanes that already have demand and funding. We have decades of experience showing building more lanes just induces more demand and the problem gets worse. But we keep doing it. Because it sounds like it should work.

Induced demand has been thoroughly debunked [1]. If you build a 20 lane no-stops highway from Fresno to Reno, you might see some use shift from other routes, but it does not spur a horde of people to buy cars so they can drive the route. It is just a convenient thought experiment to point at for people who don't want to invest in infrastructure to meet current demand.

You could make a genuine argument that demand should not exist because people should be taking busses, trains, submarines, or whatever. But continuing to kneecap public infrastructure only furthers the perception that trains might be a good idea, but will become unreliable and packed when NIMBYs decide to turn their attention to noise or whatever and demand we build less track.

I've been in the Bay Area 20 something years now and I have never seen 101 or 280 meaningfully expanded, so no we haven't actually tried it.

1. https://www.cato.org/blog/debunking-induced-demand-myth

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#85
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Bay Area does this with carpool lanes. The electronic billboard says $12 and you see a nonstop stream of Tesla, BMW, Mercedes, etc. and tech company busses. All it does is force the poor to sit in traffic while some lanes are reserved for people to whom $12 is inconsequential. I fail to see how applying this same logic to an entire road makes it any better.

The benefit comes when prices reach the level where traffic flows at full speed. This increases the traffic throughput by maybe 5x, which makes the road much more useful.

> The benefit comes when prices reach the level where traffic flows at full speed.

How then does your gardener get his truck to your house? Your DoorDash driver? The elderly woman on a fixed income who needs to get to her doctors appointment?

Roads cannot be the domain of the rich. (Also please don't pretend that public transport is even remotely viable in the US)

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#86
post #84
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NIMBYs get in the way of building the lanes that already have demand and funding. We have decades of experience showing building more lanes just induces more demand and the problem gets worse. But we keep doing it. Because it sounds like it should work.

Induced demand has been thoroughly debunked [1]. If you build a 20 lane no-stops highway from Fresno to Reno, you might see some use shift from other routes, but it does not spur a horde of people to buy cars so they can drive the route. It is just a convenient thought experiment to point at for people who don't want to invest in infrastructure to meet current demand. You could make a genuine argument that demand sho…

> If you build a 20 lane no-stops highway from Fresno to Reno, you might see some use shift from other routes, but it does not spur a horde of people to buy cars so they can drive the route.

That’s misunderstanding the concept: in our hypothetical superhighway, it’s true that people who already lived on that route wouldn’t buy more cars to drive it but that was never the claim. What was claimed is what we saw throughout the 20th century: people would favor car commutes along that route because it’s faster so they could get more house for their budget by living further out of the cities. That’s fine at first but inevitably hits the spatial inefficiency of cars unless the local economy isn’t active enough, at which point you can’t afford road maintenance.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#87
post #23

People want to move around. This is a fundamental fact. And once they learn how much they can move, they are unwilling to move around less (or slower). This is something all the "get rid of cars" people ignore, and it's why it will never work.

I mean, we have pretty overwhelming evidence that people will alter their travel behavior based on incentives and available capacity.

We add more lanes to a highway, and get induced demand with people choosing to drive more. Road diets restricting road capacity lead to reduced demand, with people driving less. There's a ton of research on both phenomena. When the 405 was closed for a weekend due to construction, Los Angeles was told to expect carmageddon. Public transit saw record-breaking ridership levels that weekend, and traffic across LA actually decreased as a result.

Drivers routinely change their driving route based on traffic congestion, and it's not uncommon to choose a slightly longer route to avoid being stuck in a traffic jam. Sitting in traffic feels more stressful, particularly on a highway where everything about the road design is telling your brain that you're supposed to be moving fast but aren't.

If we wanted to, we could build robust public transit systems that are more than capable of moving most people to where they need to go with minimal delay, convenience, and comfort and that a large percentage of the population would want to use.

Instead, most of North America has anemic bus systems that couldn't be more antagonistic towards their riders if they actively tried. A bus stop sign on the side of a four lane stroad that lacks sidewalks--the very thing that would enable people to safely access said bus stop--sends a pretty clear message to riders "we don't care about you, and if you die trying to board your bus, well, that's just how it is."

In any case, you're conflating the desire to move around with the desire to move around by car. They're not the same thing, even if seventy years of urban planning have assumed otherwise. Beyond that, we travel between places because we want to do something when we get to our destination. That's the goal, and the mode by which we travel there is simply a means to an end.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#88
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d rather not ride a bus with potentially mentally unstable, smelly, or violent others, especially without at least one other human guaranteed to be present.

> I’d rather not ride a bus with potentially mentally unstable, smelly, or violent others There are solutions to that other than robotaxis. Like healthcare.

For sure, so let’s do that first and then robobuses. The order is important. The other order makes the robobuses unpleasant.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#89
post #68
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How? If we replace every car driven by an individual with a car driven by machine If all vehicles - not just cars - were driven by machines and connected to a network then there are many optimisations that they could be doing. For example you could get rid of traffic lights, yielding rules, even lanes. Cars could travel much faster if they didn’t have to worry about reaction times. For example cars could go through…

Those are the kinds of optimizations that work very well in theory and are an absolute nightmare in practice. You're talking about a system where one kid running into the road could cause a chain collision of dozens of cars that were counting on rushing the intersection at high speed. Or, alternatively, could end up with the kid getting hit at 45 miles an hour, with extremely fatal and destructive results.

You can say the same thing about high speed trains now. The difference is, a well set up automated system is probably the best odds a kid is going to get at survival because if all the cars are networked they will know ahead of time there is someone rapidly braking ahead of them.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#90
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We said you can’t have horse drawn buggies on highways, I don’t see why you couldn’t have a similar rule for automated vehicles 50 years from now.

Highways didn’t exist when cars became common. They came because of cars. We never took them away from horse riders. We gave car drivers a new option. This would be taking something away from drivers. And that’s what people hate . Look at the responses to congestion taxes or toll roads. Or even traffic jams! People behave as if they have a right to use any (seemingly) public road just because they have a car. Even pr…

You can make two lanes of freeways automated only where the speed limit is 200 mph
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