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TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight

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11–20 of 48 posts

Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight

#11
post #2

Everyone knew that this was just a PR move. This was the intended result. Some policy wonk somewhere thought that this was all on the up-and-up, but everyone else involved, from Apple to TSMC, and all of the mid level politicians that showed up for the photo ops knew that this was virtue signaling for votes, kickbacks, and subsidies/tax breaks.

On-shoring manufacturing isn’t “virtue signaling”, it’s of massive strategic importance.

I, for one, think it’ll work out.

Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight

#12
post #6
post #3

Used to be that the US would just import scientists and engineers then develop stuff themselves. It'll be interesting in a few years to learn if this Arizona plant was just one head of the capitalist hydra and its success or failure didn't really matter all that much. I suspect that the US doesn't need to import technology in that manner to get good results; it never has in the past and I don't think that much has ch…

I really don't think you can just import scientists and engineers and essentially develop TSMC. It's not the sixties anymore, Intel has a massive R&D budget but they are not currently able to compete with TSMC. Technology is also quite advanced, I doubt it's just a few years of R&D. In fact, it's so expensive, there are only a few factories on earth capable on producing those chips. China would have done it already i…

A few leaders can pull critical people over with them and help speed up projects. Samsung and SMIC poach TSMC R&D leaders fairly frequently and it makes the news over there.

Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight

#14
Having worked in the semiconductor manufacturing industry for a decade, albeit a while ago now, this article seems a bit overblown. The packaging industry was moved to low-cost areas long before the semiconductor fabs were; the fab is generally considered the high-tech part. Not that packaging isn't important or specialized or difficult in its own way, but it's done in lots of countries, and it is not in the slightest unusual for it to be done in a different country than the wafer fab. Usually (though by no means always), a country with lower cost of labor.

Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight

#16
post #2

Everyone knew that this was just a PR move. This was the intended result. Some policy wonk somewhere thought that this was all on the up-and-up, but everyone else involved, from Apple to TSMC, and all of the mid level politicians that showed up for the photo ops knew that this was virtue signaling for votes, kickbacks, and subsidies/tax breaks.

No. This was a strategic move.Strategy(specially when it works) looks superfluous but it is not.

There are strategic fields like food or semiconductors in which you need to assert independence or you will be blackmailed.

E.g Germany recently made strategic mistake using the gas from the Russian pipelines AND not building alternatives.

Had Germany built energy plants as alternatives, they would have not been used at all(because is is usually more expensive), so people like you would have called them "PR move".

Had Germany built alternatives that they could use, Russia would not have been as emboldened to invade Ukraine, and if Russia would had been stupid enough to invade anyway, Europe would not have paid the start of the war to Russia with overprices and Ukraine could have been given heavy weapons way sooner.

Europe has wasted tens of billions of euros by making such strategic mistakes.

The US is building semiconductors plants in the US. The objective is not to build semiconductors in the US if it is moreexpensive, the objective is be able to create semiconductors very fast if China invades Taiwan.

Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight

#19
post #8
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't think you can just import scientists and engineers and essentially develop TSMC. It's not the sixties anymore, Intel has a massive R&D budget but they are not currently able to compete with TSMC. Technology is also quite advanced, I doubt it's just a few years of R&D. In fact, it's so expensive, there are only a few factories on earth capable on producing those chips. China would have done it already i…

> I really don't think you can just import scientists and engineers and essentially develop TSMC. I think it's more a question of being willing to spend the money you need to stay at the cutting edge. Based purely on market logic, you can't build a TMSC because it would be too expensive and risky for modern-day capitalist investors to contemplate. But if you have resources and don't care about making a profit in the…

Seems like starting an automotive manufacturing company would be far worse as a prospect yet they are popping up everywhere. That automotive industry has always been a case study in great ideas failing hard. If you succeed you get to compete with everyone else who has to fight and scratch for a profit while juggling one of the most complex undertakings imaginable. There are 150 year old established brands like Chrysler that have/are failing now.

Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight

#20
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't think you can just import scientists and engineers and essentially develop TSMC. I think it's more a question of being willing to spend the money you need to stay at the cutting edge. Based purely on market logic, you can't build a TMSC because it would be too expensive and risky for modern-day capitalist investors to contemplate. But if you have resources and don't care about making a profit in the…

Seems like starting an automotive manufacturing company would be far worse as a prospect yet they are popping up everywhere. That automotive industry has always been a case study in great ideas failing hard. If you succeed you get to compete with everyone else who has to fight and scratch for a profit while juggling one of the most complex undertakings imaginable. There are 150 year old established brands like Chrysl…

The cost of a fab for each new process node is roughly double the cost of the previous node.

That’s not true for cars. In fact, starting a new car company is probably cheaper than a few decades ago, since most part manufacturing has been outsourced.

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