TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
1–10 of 48 posts
Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
#2Everyone knew that this was just a PR move. This was the intended result. Some policy wonk somewhere thought that this was all on the up-and-up, but everyone else involved, from Apple to TSMC, and all of the mid level politicians that showed up for the photo ops knew that this was virtue signaling for votes, kickbacks, and subsidies/tax breaks.
Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
#3Used to be that the US would just import scientists and engineers then develop stuff themselves. It'll be interesting in a few years to learn if this Arizona plant was just one head of the capitalist hydra and its success or failure didn't really matter all that much. I suspect that the US doesn't need to import technology in that manner to get good results; it never has in the past and I don't think that much has changed.
All the excitement over high end chips seems overblown. We appear to be talking about a couple of years R&D. Tactically interesting, it'll decide a lot of things in practice about who specialises in what. Strategically not that big an issue. The trade war manoeuvring is doomed to look silly; the US can't stop China and China couldn't stop the US anyone thought there was a real problem to solve.
Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
#4Facts known from the start seem to flow slowly into the public knowledge.
Arizona fab was always going to be a MegaFab, not a GIGAFAB® in TSMC terminology.
MegaFab's (25K+ WSPM/month) are for medium value, flexibility, cost, delivery precision, customers. US defense contractors for example. Not for some massive customers like NVIDIA or Apple.
Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
#5I'm not an industry analyst, but the packaging issue seems a bit overblown.
Yes, packaging for this kind of high density design as an iPhone is very specialized, but it does not contain the precious IP and the security concerns it carries.
Also, iPhones and any costumer electronics at this level of complexity and scale will be assembled in China for the foreseeable future, and this is more like a stop in the middle of a journey than a round-trip.
Maybe this website is too Apple-focused, or maybe I'm missing something, but "older" technology makes the bulk of the ICs manufactured and is much more strategic than the latest Instagram filter accelerator processor. Maybe by value bleeding-edge nodes are bigger, but by volume they are not even close.
By the way, I won't miss if my car comes without infotainment with the latest GPU, but I surely hope the ABS processors are there. Or even the shitty microcontroller that every single button seems to hide nowadays.
And for most applications that do not require incredibly high density, there are plenty of packaging plants in the US (I google and got this [1] as a first result. Sorry, not an analyst). And even the advanced packaging seems to be getting attention that this article does not acknowledge [2].
[1] https://www.globalspec.com/local/4218/C_US [2] https://semiengineering.com/expanding-advanced-packaging-pro...
Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
#6Used to be that the US would just import scientists and engineers then develop stuff themselves. It'll be interesting in a few years to learn if this Arizona plant was just one head of the capitalist hydra and its success or failure didn't really matter all that much. I suspect that the US doesn't need to import technology in that manner to get good results; it never has in the past and I don't think that much has ch…
I really don't think you can just import scientists and engineers and essentially develop TSMC. It's not the sixties anymore, Intel has a massive R&D budget but they are not currently able to compete with TSMC. Technology is also quite advanced, I doubt it's just a few years of R&D. In fact, it's so expensive, there are only a few factories on earth capable on producing those chips. China would have done it already if it's so simple.
Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
#7Everyone knew that this was just a PR move. This was the intended result. Some policy wonk somewhere thought that this was all on the up-and-up, but everyone else involved, from Apple to TSMC, and all of the mid level politicians that showed up for the photo ops knew that this was virtue signaling for votes, kickbacks, and subsidies/tax breaks.
I think you might be giving mid level politicians too much credit
Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
#8Used to be that the US would just import scientists and engineers then develop stuff themselves. It'll be interesting in a few years to learn if this Arizona plant was just one head of the capitalist hydra and its success or failure didn't really matter all that much. I suspect that the US doesn't need to import technology in that manner to get good results; it never has in the past and I don't think that much has ch…
I really don't think you can just import scientists and engineers and essentially develop TSMC. It's not the sixties anymore, Intel has a massive R&D budget but they are not currently able to compete with TSMC. Technology is also quite advanced, I doubt it's just a few years of R&D. In fact, it's so expensive, there are only a few factories on earth capable on producing those chips. China would have done it already i…
> I really don't think you can just import scientists and engineers and essentially develop TSMC.
I think it's more a question of being willing to spend the money you need to stay at the cutting edge. Based purely on market logic, you can't build a TMSC because it would be too expensive and risky for modern-day capitalist investors to contemplate.
But if you have resources and don't care about making a profit in the market (like a government), you can do it eventually.
> It's not the sixties anymore, Intel has a massive R&D budget but they are not currently able to compete with TSMC. Technology is also quite advanced, I doubt it's just a few years of R&D.
I don't think Intel is "not able" to compete, but rather they took a costly mis-step. IIRC, TMSC took a more slow-and-steady approach, while Intel was too ambitious and its plan failed, so now it has to backtrack.
> In fact, it's so expensive, there are only a few factories on earth capable on producing those chips.
IIRC, they basically build a new factory each time the technology advances, so that's not as much of a limitation than it sounds.
Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
#9Everyone knew that this was just a PR move. This was the intended result. Some policy wonk somewhere thought that this was all on the up-and-up, but everyone else involved, from Apple to TSMC, and all of the mid level politicians that showed up for the photo ops knew that this was virtue signaling for votes, kickbacks, and subsidies/tax breaks.
I think you might be giving mid level politicians too much credit
yeah, good point.
Re: TSMC Arizona chip plant will be a paperweight
#10I still don't know how they are supplying water to the thing, we don't have much water out here as it is...