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Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

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Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#511

Post by Timon3 »

thomasahle wrote: post #497
cmews wrote: post #90

My prediction is that geo-engineering will be done when a certain death/disturbance threshold will have been reached (too many climate refugees for example and western world can't achieve a closed border, or too many weather disasters that hit the western world and populations are convinced it is because of global warming). However I don't think we will reach it in the next 5-10 years, but maybe after that period. Al…

> My prediction is that geo-engineering will be done when a certain death/disturbance threshold will have been reached People seem to be accepting "the new normal" very fast. I'm not sure geo-engineering will be popular, since the status quo bias that's currently preventing us from reducing fossil fuels, will also stop any "artificial weather manipulation".

But let's be fair - "reducing fossil fuel consumption" and "artificial weather manipulation" are on completely different levels in regards to dangers. Nothing bad will happen if we suddenly stopped all fossil fuel consumption and replaced it with renewable energy. We don't know what kind of bad things can happen with artificial weather manipulation, because we haven't really done that before, and you can't really test the impacts in a closed experiment.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#512

Post by Timon3 »

mvkel wrote: post #509
LispSporks22 wrote: post #244

> red meat I've been vegan for decades, and I would love to see humanity move on from meat, but the idea is so incredibly offensive to people that I find it far easier to imagine the the Amazon razed and replaced with cattle feeding lots before that will happen.

This would address less than a tenth of 1% of the problem, but sure.

Studies seem to indicate that the cattle industry produces somewhere between 11% and 17% of global greenhouse emissions: https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/food-agriculture-environm...

How do you get from that to less than 0.1%?

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#513

Post by zpeti »

SpacePortKnight wrote: post #474
zpeti wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. Climate change is a diplomacy issue, nothing the west is going to do in the next 50 years will make a difference with what’s going on in china and elsewhere. So either you are a realist about this problem, and you admit that either it’s war with many countries to solve this issue, or it won’t be solved (because they won’t stop economic growth for carbon emissions). Possible alternatives are technology. But…

USA emits almost 8 times more C02 when compared to India per capita. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita In that sense India would need to be 10B+ people to poluate as much as US / west does.

Except per capita co2 emissions AND total emissions have been falling in the USA.

China now emits more co2 than europe and USA combined. And this is NOT because of exports to the west, those are now also falling yet co2 emissions are still climbing.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-...

This is what I mean. Just these two countries like india and china are emitting so much CO2, that any reduction in emissions by the west by not eating steak just won't matter. Either you stop china doing this (good luck!) or think of another solution.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#514

Post by RandomLensman »

dopidopHN wrote: post #466
RandomLensman wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil will eventually be very cheap because demand will be a lot less than it is now.

I never heard that projection before. Because demands will plumet? Then It might just be not cost effective at all to go dig deeper or use more complex process to get it. How does that works with current recent trends? Globally we consumed more oil in 2023 than 2022 for instance. If demand plumet somehow … can we still support a extraction industry ? Recently ( pre 2019 ) shale gaz was worth it because of high prices…

Once oil is used only marginally for fuel and heating, the demand will be a lot less (minus 80% or thereabouts) and going after difficult to extract sources might indeed not be economical but also not needed to satisfy demand (unless this happens very very late).

During the transition there could be cost spikes at demand levels that are awkward to fill without expensive resources, though.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#515

Post by Aerbil313 »

badtension wrote: post #468
Aerbil313 wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This time it won’t because there aint any fuel left.

That would be a cool story plot: starting civilization again with all the knowledge but none of the fossil fuel power. Solarpunk?

I think you overestimate how much knowledge there will be left.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#516

Post by badtension »

Aerbil313 wrote: post #515
badtension wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be a cool story plot: starting civilization again with all the knowledge but none of the fossil fuel power. Solarpunk?

I think you overestimate how much knowledge there will be left.

Of course not all the knowledge will be left but enough to easily build basic engines using Stirling or Carnot cycles or even pressurized steam. Solar panels don't have to be 25% efficient, 5% amorphous silicon cells would also be very useful.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#517

Post by batch12 »

amrocha wrote: post #422
batch12 wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What works for you doesn't work for everyone. There are many, many places in the world where using a bicycle as a main method of transportation would be impractical and miserable. Short of force, this isn't going to happen.

Yes, the entire idea is to refactor our cities and societies so that most people can and do use the low carbon option. It's not commuting 40Km by bicycle, it's raising the price of gas to the point that people choose to live at a distance where they can bicycle to work. At the same time you need to build housing and bike infrastructure to make sure everyone can have access to it.

Not everyone lives in a city. 'Refactoring' the planet is a pipe dream in the short term. It's not possible in the timeframe being discussed. People in the larger thread suggest that its better to get the dying over with now since it'll happen anyway. When food stops moving, it'll be the cities that fall first. A bicycle won't help.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#518

Post by VoodooJuJu »

ricardobeat wrote: post #510
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That was hyperbole. >But also not entirely unrealistic Well which is it? Hyperbole or not, the intent behind it is the same, which seems to focus the climate change problem on some of the weakest sources of fuel consumption who also happen to be some of the poorest, most vulnerable people. I think it's a kind of subconscious projection, that the example you've brought to the fore is those poor people driving to buy…

> some of the poorest, most vulnerable people That is a strawman you introduced into the conversation. Most cities in the west are planned around cars. I’ve been to a few of the largest cities in the US and don’t think those 6-lane highways were clogged with “the poorest most vulnerable people”. You see the same patterns in south america. This is really about the average car-centric culture, consumption patterns, the…

No, poor people getting disproportionately harmed by many climate change proposals is not a strawman, it's a very real consequence that needs to be addressed.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#519

Post by dopidopHN »

RandomLensman wrote: post #514
dopidopHN wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never heard that projection before. Because demands will plumet? Then It might just be not cost effective at all to go dig deeper or use more complex process to get it. How does that works with current recent trends? Globally we consumed more oil in 2023 than 2022 for instance. If demand plumet somehow … can we still support a extraction industry ? Recently ( pre 2019 ) shale gaz was worth it because of high prices…

Once oil is used only marginally for fuel and heating, the demand will be a lot less (minus 80% or thereabouts) and going after difficult to extract sources might indeed not be economical but also not needed to satisfy demand (unless this happens very very late). During the transition there could be cost spikes at demand levels that are awkward to fill without expensive resources, though.

Motor véhicule is 50% and aviation 5%, idk about heating.

So we assume that we replace all explosion engine by EV. Correct?

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#520

Post by tim333 »

ethanbond wrote: post #181
calvinmorrison wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Greenland will finally get populated and maybe people will stop living in hurricane zones

Yes yes the solution here is to physically move hundreds or thousands of years of capital investment, especially forms of capital investment that cannot be moved and are just abandoned/destroyed. That way we can emit a bunch more to rebuild that already-built infrastructure in a different locale!

There's a lot of time though. It's more a matter of the kids or grandkids moving somewhere colder rather than anything sudden. And the biggest problem with building a new house up north is getting planning permission. The actual construction can be relatively trivial.
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