Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened? • Hacker News Board

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#191

Post by actionfromafar » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 5:43 PM UTC

Aloha wrote: post #185

actionfromafar wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This only makes sense with the unstated premise that the state is helpless to regulate the market with its own set of incentives.

Legally, it in some ways, it currently is. Could Texas return to Integrated utilities, and Rate of Return based pricing? sure, but that'd be up to the legislature to deal with. I think the current system surprisingly (even to me) works well, I think building in market incentives is probably easier than trying to put the genie back in the bottle.

“Pay Bitcoin miners” to stabilise the grid, that market incentive?

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#192

Post by vel0city » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 5:50 PM UTC

tr3ntg wrote: post #138

gcr wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

isn’t it normal for supply to only barely exceed demand? That’s what’s most efficient. Out of curiosity, what did those graphs look like to you on previous years?

I didn’t live here in previous years, but I think it’s abnormal that multiple days in a week demand is estimated to be above supply. And yes, it’s most efficient to keep supply and demand close. But based on this article and our recent trends, it seems like there’s some trouble / concern with unlocking the extra energy needed to supply everyone lately.

Its also historically not normal for demand to hit >85GW nearly every day.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#193

Post by vel0city » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 5:50 PM UTC

Aloha wrote: post #182

As a Texan, I think whats going on in Texas, perhaps controversially is what happens when you have an over reliance on solar and wind as primary power sources. Even in Texas (where wind is basically ever-present) there are times when the wind does not blow. I think wind and solar are great, and we should build more, but you also need a sizable amount of thermal generation (preferably nuclear) to provide for base load…

This big dip here in TFA is probably because of some thermal plant going down unexpectedly.

The other close day this summer was also because of thermal plants supposedly not being able to come online due to extra maintenance.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#194

Post by vel0city » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 5:53 PM UTC

cozzyd wrote: post #183

wc- wrote: post #26

There's a lot of misunderstanding in the comments so far regarding bitcoin mining incentives. I urge you to read this thread describing the split-second load-shedding response time from the POV of one of these miners: https://twitter.com/ogbtc/status/1699588007664275873 It also goes into the other mechanism by which they make money (being natural sellers of future energy demand contracts during times of high demand).…

Putting the electricity into giant resistors would be a more productive source of on-demand energy usage.

GPUs are pretty much fancy resistors that also happen to do some math.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#195

Post by mcdonje » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 6:07 PM UTC

wc- wrote: post #170

mcdonje wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saying they're "providing a service" by turning off in peak times is kind of a ridiculous phrasing. Normal consumers in normal markets don't buy at peak because peak pricing is quite expensive. Flipping the equation to paying people to not buy something and calling it a service is outrageous. It exposes the grid as something that literally cannot work on free market principles. People are right to be outraged.

This just isn't how the grid works. Texas has added more than double the amount of renewable energy than any other state grid in the last two years. These investments introduce variable production and require on-demand response to keep the demand/consumption balance steady. Normal / residential consumers do not have a steady demand, don't prepay power usage, and don't guarantee future power usage. All of these factor…

I get how the grid works. You don't get the market failure. In a normal market, consumers aren't service providers unless they happen to also sell something separate from what they're buying. They're using a service. Sellers ostensibly take a risk that demand won't be sufficient.

With the grid, that's unacceptable. So there's an absurd solution of paying customers to influence their buying behavior, and even calling them 'service providers'. In a normal market, you charge more or less to steer consumer behavior, like what they do for human customers.

In this 'market', the government is providing much of the capital and the businesses are not taking on all of the risk. And some 'customers' are necessary to make the product work.

This is not an appropriate scenario for a free market. It's actually impossible for it to function as a free market.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#196

Post by cozzyd » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 6:16 PM UTC

vel0city wrote: post #194

cozzyd wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putting the electricity into giant resistors would be a more productive source of on-demand energy usage.

GPUs are pretty much fancy resistors that also happen to do some math.

yeah, maybe they should be used to run climate models instead of crypto :).

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#197

Post by r00fus » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 6:22 PM UTC

tiffanyh wrote: post #83

EV's This will become a bigger issue for all as more EV's gain adoption. And with the reluctance to use nuclear, there's not many reliable options for clean energy.

Massive solar deployment is a great clean energy source to add to the existing plants. However, it isn't a solid baseline source without storage/batteries.

This is where EVs can help if they have V2G aka bidirectional charging capabilities.

Nuclear will take years if not decades to solve the problems but solar can be deployed in months or a year with the right incentives.

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#198

Post by LispSporks22 » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 6:30 PM UTC

dpkirchner wrote: post #152

LispSporks22 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am curious what it takes to get this sweet deal. Surely anyone can join in the mining and get paid to do nothing on the wonky Texas grid and when you can run - deliver nothing of positive value to society. Does one need a minimum number of rigs? Maybe a permit? Just apply to the utility? I’d rather be paid than volunteer to sit around in the dark, sweating like a chump.

You probably need to start out by wining and dining folks at the Texas Railroad Commission.

So I think according to this https://statutes.capitol.texas.gov/Docs/UT/htm/UT.39.htm#39....

> (1) the facility requires a total load of more than 75 megawatts; and

Then I register with ERCOT... and profit. They seem to have passed a few bothersome "bills" to thwart our attempts at being a giant resistor though. Also, so they don't seem to specify any efficiency rating for the whole endeavor. Perhaps I can literally install a giant power resistor + a few GPUs, claim 75 MW, turn it all off and then head to the bank?

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#199

Post by cozzyd » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 6:34 PM UTC

amluto wrote: post #168

gray_-_wolf wrote: post #4

> Some of these tactics have proven controversial with consumers. One program that pays big power users like cryptocurrency operations millions to conserve, has come under particular scrutiny, as Texans have been asked to conserve voluntarily for months. This is... amazing. Not in a good way.

Is it? There’s not nearly enough information to tell. Austin Energy appears to charge about 10 cents/kWh (interestingly, it’s comparable across all service classes if I read the tariff sheet right). They pay up to $80/kW saved on average (across all events, I think) [0], I think annually. The webpage is vague. So Austin Energy is effectively paying $80/kW/year of capacity available on 10 minutes notice. 1 kW for a wh…

What if you only run the 1% of the year that you think is most likely to require spare capacity?

(hopefully they have safeguards against that?)

Re: Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?

#200

Post by mptest » Thu, Sep 07, 2023, 6:45 PM UTC

kentonv wrote: post #133

Retric wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You achieve similar results by simply charging such customers current market rates. Nobody is going to be mining Bitcoin while paying 2.50$/kWh. That’s the objection, it’s simply a waste of money.

It's so weird because I thought the whole point of ERCOT was to be a market and use market forces to solve everything. So why are they paying bitcoin miners to turn off, rather than just charging them market rates at all times and letting them decide for themselves? I feel like I'm missing something here.

You are missing something. That like all neoliberal idiots who claim to use "dur markets" as a catch all solution, they are dishonest bad faith actors looking to filter money and power to their friends, not make anything better for anyone. I imagine you'd find quite easily the tax payer money is filtered to companies they own or are friends of.

This is a pretty common scam among neoliberals that I don't know how it's still a mystery to people. "Dur freedum markets good!" or whatever populist lies to get elected then crank up subsidies to your friends. A tale as old as time.

Right up there with "defund state institutions and then point to their dilapidated state as evidence of their inherent failure". Nhs in the uk for an easy example.