How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s • Hacker News Board

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#281

Post by thriftwy » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:37 PM UTC

fidotron wrote: post #230

sapa777 wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As impressive as it sounds to say South Korea developed successfully on its own, did it? Did the US play any hand in its development? I mean obviously South Korea would not exist had it not been for the US' help in the war. But even afterwards, is there an sort of advantage South Korea had by having the US (the leading super power at the time) help?

On some level the success of South Korea is the success of Samsung. It is not clear how much you could separate the two.

Why discount LG, Huyndai-Kia and even Daewoo?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaebol

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#282

Post by giantg2 » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:37 PM UTC

ericmcer wrote: post #237

neom wrote: post #202

My wife and I have opted not to have children for reasons* and it's really sad how the conversation with the in-laws has moved from "you should have children because children" to "you need to have children because korea needs you to have children", and it's not just a passing comment here and there, the campaign to get us to single handedly re-populate SK is intense and sustained. I wonder if other couples are experi…

I dunno about SK but in the USA the road to kids was: partner up, get a stable income, find a home, start a family. The second and third links in that chain are broken for most people. The older generation wants to work into their 70s and own a bunch of rental properties so… no grandkids.

The first link has some problems too. Even with the second two fulfilled, the fist is a real blocker for many.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#283

Post by nine_zeros » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:37 PM UTC

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #231

neom wrote: post #202

My wife and I have opted not to have children for reasons* and it's really sad how the conversation with the in-laws has moved from "you should have children because children" to "you need to have children because korea needs you to have children", and it's not just a passing comment here and there, the campaign to get us to single handedly re-populate SK is intense and sustained. I wonder if other couples are experi…

I'm not arguing your decision to not have children. I've made the same decision myself, but the 'can't afford to have children' has always confused me. Even after the point where contraception became readily available, people were having children with far fewer resources than anyone alive today. What I hear when people say 'We can't afford to have children' is an additional '...and maintain our current standard of li…

> I'm not arguing your decision to not have children. I've made the same decision myself, but the 'can't afford to have children' has always confused me.

To add to your list of reasons, for me, I feel like I am bringing a child only to feed the capitalist system - saddled with debt, and living with less freedoms than me. I feel like my dearest loved one will not be able to thrive in this world. They could, sure, but the chances of thriving are low.

And that thought pains me deeply.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#284

Post by mycologos » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:37 PM UTC

matthewtse wrote: post #259

1-6 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One issue is that there are many who are not willing to live normal lives and there's this constant battle of trying to outdo one another. People are trying to please even mere strangers standing next to them at the crosswalk. Living mediocre is bad and there's a negative stigma associated to being middle to lower class. If your apartment isn't a Prugio or Lotte Castle and live in Bangbae; If your car isn't a AMG, BM…

Having spent some time recently in Seoul, the amount of materialism and status oneupsmanship was striking compared to the USA. One hypothesis I have is that it's because of the genetic homogeneity of everyone there, meaning the main way to differentiate between others is through your things.

You could also just have different personalities. The idea that differentiation must be entirely visual and object-based seems pretty uncreative.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#285

Post by googlryas » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:37 PM UTC

boeingUH60 wrote: post #248

amrocha wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just tax the shit out of the rich until they can't afford to flaunt their wealth as status

The real rich, the capital owners, are not the ones flaunting wealth for status...that's the upper class people with high-paying jobs; rich but not wealthy.

Well...what would you call Jeff's $500M yacht?

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#286

Post by hyperpape » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:38 PM UTC

gottorf wrote: post #201

1-6 wrote: post #199

South Korea is hostile for new families. Unless you were born to rich parents, have a decent education with a good job (that's with a Multi-national or a Chaebol), own property in Seoul, find a partner, and survive the probability of divorce, having a child is impossible--let alone having two to meet the population replacement rate. What's the solution?

To add some color: South Korea is somewhere between the size of Kentucky and Indiana (the 37th and 38th largest states), yet has over 51 million people, almost 15 million more than California, the most populous state. It has very few natural resources to speak of, and is roughly two-thirds mountainous, meaning most of the population is condensed in the few flat areas. In some ways, it's natural that the fertility rat…

This isn't enough of an explanation. South Korea is denser than India, but only by ~20%, and India's fertility rate is more than double South Korea's. Taiwan is denser than South Korea, but its fertility rate is more than 50% higher. South Korea really is an outlier.

You might also compare the United States to its peers in Europe--fertility isn't that much higher in the US (and is lower compared to a few European countries that are much denser).

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#287

Post by nemothekid » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:39 PM UTC

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #231

neom wrote: post #202

My wife and I have opted not to have children for reasons* and it's really sad how the conversation with the in-laws has moved from "you should have children because children" to "you need to have children because korea needs you to have children", and it's not just a passing comment here and there, the campaign to get us to single handedly re-populate SK is intense and sustained. I wonder if other couples are experi…

I'm not arguing your decision to not have children. I've made the same decision myself, but the 'can't afford to have children' has always confused me. Even after the point where contraception became readily available, people were having children with far fewer resources than anyone alive today. What I hear when people say 'We can't afford to have children' is an additional '...and maintain our current standard of li…

It might be fair to assume that you are relatively upperclass tech worker; I think your perceptions of what people can do is colored by your social circle. For many people they aren't worried about kids going to a private school, it's whether they can afford to feed someone else.

I'm surprised none of your expectations include basic child care - food, shelter, care. If you are just scraping by on two incomes how do you expect someone to feed another human on one income? For many young adults that still live with their own parents, they aren't worried about their kids having their own room, they are worried about having their own place to stay.

It's very pompous to assume that most people aren't having kids because they won't be able to afford to send them to Phillips Exeter when a record number of single people in South Korea live with their parents because they can't afford homes.

Sure, the people in your social circle may be eschewing having kids because they can't afford to give their kids the same lifestyle they grew up with, in private schools or don't want to give up traveling, but people who can afford those luxuries in the first place aren't representative of the broader population.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#288

Post by giantg2 » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:40 PM UTC

malauxyeux wrote: post #273

Hitton wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't worry to much about climate change, humanity overcame bigger problems. And if your in-laws want children so much, just tell them your concerns, they might be willing to chip in financially.

For me, the question isn't "Will humanity overcome?" I don't have a doubt about that. Instead it's "What are the chances my kid – the individual – will lead a relatively peaceful, fulfilling life for the next 70-90 years?" I don't know the answer.

"What are the chances my kid – the individual – will lead a relatively peaceful, fulfilling life for the next 70-90 years?"

Did your parents know the answer to that? Did your grandparents? Etc

What gives you fulfillment varies based on perspective. Peace is fragile and basically non-existent across one's entire lifespan.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#289

Post by spacemadness » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:40 PM UTC

ericmcer wrote: post #237

neom wrote: post #202

My wife and I have opted not to have children for reasons* and it's really sad how the conversation with the in-laws has moved from "you should have children because children" to "you need to have children because korea needs you to have children", and it's not just a passing comment here and there, the campaign to get us to single handedly re-populate SK is intense and sustained. I wonder if other couples are experi…

I dunno about SK but in the USA the road to kids was: partner up, get a stable income, find a home, start a family. The second and third links in that chain are broken for most people. The older generation wants to work into their 70s and own a bunch of rental properties so… no grandkids.

And your kids stand a chance to be poorer than you if you can’t support their education and devote time to care for them. If you can’t afford a home that’s the path you are on. It’s pathetic how people want folks to sacrifice themselves to create more workerbees for society while they demand their housing “investment(s)” continue to blast upward and vote for less housing.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#290

Post by somenameforme » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:40 PM UTC

grej wrote: post #206

South Korea was among the poorest countries in the world - poorer than many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa as recently as the 1960s. Withing a single lifetime they transformed themselves into one of the most advanced developed economies on the planet with a madman (mad men) on their doorstep. It’s natural that that kind of change will have some massive societal implications, many of which they are still sorting out.…

It's easy to illustrate the impact of fertility rates by model, and it's far more rapid/severe than I think most realize. A fertility rate of "N" means that the next younger generation will be N/2 times as large. So, a fertility rate of 2 means no change, while a fertility rate of 4 would result in an exponential doubling. How about 0.7? We can create a population distribution of this easily enough because we know how big each generation will be relative to the one after it. Assume each generation is 20 years (if its longer - things look even worse). We end up with, for instance:

===

1000 eighty year olds, 350 sixty year olds, 122 forty year olds, 42 twenty year olds, 15 newborns.

===

So you have a working age population of ~300 people working to support a population of 1529. You have a median age of 80, and an average age of 70. Think about the pressure on hospital, healthcare, and any sort of pension or other programs. Those 300 people need to not only man all of these jobs, but also somehow keep the entire economy from collapsing. I mean it's just not going to work.

And then of course your population will be declining catastrophically quickly. The ~20 years during which those 1000 eighty year olds die will result in a population decline of 65%. Yet that's no salvation because the ratio of age distributions won't change at all, unless fertility rates do. You'll end up in the exact same position, continuing to lose 65% of your population each 20 years to come.