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How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

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Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#261

Post by neom »

fsloth wrote: post #218
neom wrote: post #202

My wife and I have opted not to have children for reasons* and it's really sad how the conversation with the in-laws has moved from "you should have children because children" to "you need to have children because korea needs you to have children", and it's not just a passing comment here and there, the campaign to get us to single handedly re-populate SK is intense and sustained. I wonder if other couples are experi…

If you really want to have children but are worried about climate change and cost - may I suggest you look moving to norhern europe. The region will survive most predicted outcomes and childcare is heavily state subsidized. That is if you would love to have a family but can’t for the stated reasons. It’s totally fine not to want children as personal choice without any rationalization as well!

It's slightly more than I explained. My wife worked her way up from a rural farming town here in Korea, basically taught herself English (and 18th century English), went to the states and got her PhD in American History (something she worked 2 jobs to do + we have debt) and became one of the few Korean born American History professors in the country. We'd both really like to stay in Korea, and we'd like to have kids, but these things seem at odds in SK these days, maybe things will change for us, maybe we'll move one day, we'll see. As it stands today, caring for aging parents on both sides, giving our kids a better life than ours, seems... challenging. (Thanks for the positive and helpful comment, btw :)

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#262

Post by toomuchtodo »

kjkjadksj wrote: post #256
spaniard89277 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Spain there's no institutional pressure, but peer pressure. I'm expected to have children and pay +1/2 of my income in rent, have little savings, etc. I'm pretty much an average spaniard in financial terms. Climate change frightens me too. I mean, If I had children I would have fear for their future and I would be completely ruined financially. But it seems this is completely incomprehensible to older generations…

Older generations want you to have kids because in their mind they or their parents had kids through even worse things. Wars, famine, and crippling global economic decline are the cultural memory of our older generation. Existential things like affordability or an impending climate crisis pale in comparison to the village being bombed and seeing the affects of famine in front of you. The fact you are able to have an…

Excellent comment. The desire to have children being generationally transmitted has inertia that doesn't account for a landscape that has changed much more rapidly.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#263

Post by antisthenes »

gottorf wrote: post #201
1-6 wrote: post #199

South Korea is hostile for new families. Unless you were born to rich parents, have a decent education with a good job (that's with a Multi-national or a Chaebol), own property in Seoul, find a partner, and survive the probability of divorce, having a child is impossible--let alone having two to meet the population replacement rate. What's the solution?

To add some color: South Korea is somewhere between the size of Kentucky and Indiana (the 37th and 38th largest states), yet has over 51 million people, almost 15 million more than California, the most populous state. It has very few natural resources to speak of, and is roughly two-thirds mountainous, meaning most of the population is condensed in the few flat areas. In some ways, it's natural that the fertility rat…

> It's honestly miraculous how far it's come. Within one lifetime, it went from a primarily agricultural economy to one of the world's largest and most industrialized.

Is it miraculous if it's not sustainable, as we are clearly seeing? They had a massive, far-beyond-replacement-rate boom of the population, based on the 1970s and 1980s levels of fossil fuel consumption, fueled also by rapid globalization.

If the trends for energy and globalization are reversed, what are they going to do with a massively aged population around 2040-2050?

It seems like their demographic crisis is going to be one of the worst in the world, perhaps worse even than Japan's ?

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#264

Post by Slava_Propanei »

bachmeier wrote: post #232
1-6 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One issue is that there are many who are not willing to live normal lives and there's this constant battle of trying to outdo one another. People are trying to please even mere strangers standing next to them at the crosswalk. Living mediocre is bad and there's a negative stigma associated to being middle to lower class. If your apartment isn't a Prugio or Lotte Castle and live in Bangbae; If your car isn't a AMG, BM…

> My solution? Spread the population apart such that people will stop comparing themselves with one another. That would fix the problem, but it's not a solution, because there's no practical way to implement it. It's hard to imagine that even five people would willingly move out of Seoul.

[dead]

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#265

Post by yobbo »

gottorf wrote: post #236
sapa777 wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As impressive as it sounds to say South Korea developed successfully on its own, did it? Did the US play any hand in its development? I mean obviously South Korea would not exist had it not been for the US' help in the war. But even afterwards, is there an sort of advantage South Korea had by having the US (the leading super power at the time) help?

I didn't mean to imply that South Korea developed all on its own. (A good example of a country that tried to do that, with closed borders, is its northern neighbor.) Certainly, having the foremost superpower in its corner helped tremendously, much like the Marshall Plan did for post-WW2 Western Europe. It's a fascinating history that I can in no way do justice in a HN comment, save to say that one can't simply throw…

To put the "Marshall Plan" into a modern perspective, it was equivalent to $173 billion in 2023 dollars, over a period of four years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#266

Post by kjkjadksj »

fsloth wrote: post #218
neom wrote: post #202

My wife and I have opted not to have children for reasons* and it's really sad how the conversation with the in-laws has moved from "you should have children because children" to "you need to have children because korea needs you to have children", and it's not just a passing comment here and there, the campaign to get us to single handedly re-populate SK is intense and sustained. I wonder if other couples are experi…

If you really want to have children but are worried about climate change and cost - may I suggest you look moving to norhern europe. The region will survive most predicted outcomes and childcare is heavily state subsidized. That is if you would love to have a family but can’t for the stated reasons. It’s totally fine not to want children as personal choice without any rationalization as well!

It would be better to move to the midwestern US honestly. Housing and childcare is super affordable out there and wages will probably still work out better than in europe. I expect when shit hits the fan you’d rather be in wisconson with american citizenship than on the proverbial maginot line. Civilians don’t often fare well in european continental conflicts.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#267

Post by kypro »

I think in the West we would benefit if the default position was that it's shameful and selfish to not have kids. The way our welfare state is set up currently is such that we don't pay for our own retirement, but need the generations below us (hopefully a larger generation) to fund our retirement as we did for the generations before us.

When we don't have kids the welfare system which we seem to value simply doesn't work anymore and puts increasing pressures on younger generations. And this compounds the low birthrate issue because we now have to raise taxes on younger generations and take out more debt (both public and private) to afford the welfare spending. This high level of taxation and indebtedness increases wealth inequality and makes it harder for young couple to have children.

I think we'll work this out the hard way at some point... The West is trying to offset the inevitable with ever increasing levels of immigration but that will only work for so long. Eventually the welfare system will collapse and people will have to have kids if they want to be cared for in their older age. I hope we don't get to that point, but it seems to me people are too nice to shame people for not having kids and are unwillingly cut welfare spending / fund their own retirements.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58340

Not sure what the situation is in South Korea. If people care for their own elderly family / neighbours instead of expecting the state to do it then perhaps a low birth rate is less of an issue. Sure, GDP might not grow, but that's not the end of the world.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#268

Post by Slava_Propanei »

bachmeier wrote: post #223
1-6 wrote: post #199

South Korea is hostile for new families. Unless you were born to rich parents, have a decent education with a good job (that's with a Multi-national or a Chaebol), own property in Seoul, find a partner, and survive the probability of divorce, having a child is impossible--let alone having two to meet the population replacement rate. What's the solution?

As someone that lived there with a kid a while back, I agree, and it's only gotten tougher since I left. > What's the solution? Let's start by identifying the problem. The problem is that everyone wants to live in Seoul, or even in particular parts of Seoul. Is there a solution to that? Hard to see what it might be.

[dead]

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#269

Post by Night_Thastus »

cagenut wrote: post #257
grej wrote: post #206

South Korea was among the poorest countries in the world - poorer than many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa as recently as the 1960s. Withing a single lifetime they transformed themselves into one of the most advanced developed economies on the planet with a madman (mad men) on their doorstep. It’s natural that that kind of change will have some massive societal implications, many of which they are still sorting out.…

correct?

There are reasons from an economical point of view why a shrinking population isn't great. So they may see it as a problem that needs correcting.

Re: How South Korea’s birth rate dropped below Japan’s

#270

Post by JamesBarney »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #203
gottorf wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add some color: South Korea is somewhere between the size of Kentucky and Indiana (the 37th and 38th largest states), yet has over 51 million people, almost 15 million more than California, the most populous state. It has very few natural resources to speak of, and is roughly two-thirds mountainous, meaning most of the population is condensed in the few flat areas. In some ways, it's natural that the fertility rat…

Indeed. Infinite growth as demanded by capitalism is not physically possible. If they wouldn't hit "the wall" now, they would hit it anyway in the near future. Maybe South Korea's situation should give all ageing rich developed nations something to reflect on and start making preparations for the upcoming demographic plateau/collapse and reform stuff like welfare/pension systems, instead of blindly kicking the can do…

There is a huge leap from "Infinite growth is not possible" to we're about to hit a wall.

And I don't know how capitalism demands more growth, it just provides more growth which is why capitalism is successful at things like reducing poverty.

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