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The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

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Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#131

Post by woooooo »

whats_a_quasar wrote: post #92
8note wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If china declared Puerto Rico to be it's ally and started building military bases there without US permission, the US would do more than threaten to invade Puerto Rico, it'd do it immediately

Dude, this is blatant whataboutism. Puerto Rico is in no way equivalent to Taiwan, and I suspect you know that. Taiwan is a sovereign, independent, democratic nation. The Chinese Communist Party has never had political control over Taiwan. It just claims the right to overrule the right to self-determination of 23 million people because it feels like it. The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is an unincorporated U.S. territ…

Puerto Rico is a terrible example.

Cuba is a much better one, it's not even hypothetical.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#132

Post by dang »

StevePerkins wrote: post #2

What a truly awful "sign up for my newsletter in order to read my blog post" nag modal. All you have to do is scroll down a bit and then scroll back up, and the modal remains off-screen below the bottom. A determined user can easily get around this wall, while it's JUST annoying enough to make a casual user (such as myself) close the tab after the second paragraph once the modal appears.

"Please don't complain about tangential annoyances—e.g. article or website formats, name collisions, or back-button breakage. They're too common to be interesting."

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#133

Post by JumpCrisscross »

reisse wrote: post #67
prepend wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Honestly, I'm tired of this "oh they're totalitarian, so we cannot believe their statistics when it's good" stance. It looks so much like a comfortable self-deceit. I’m tired of it too, but I think it’s better than “not use any data points” or “trust the super subjective data points put out by a totalitarian regime so they aren’t comparable to other countries.” I don’t think the US is perfect, but economic indicato…

> I’m tired of it too, but I think it’s better than “not use any data points” or “trust the super subjective data points put out by a totalitarian regime so they aren’t comparable to other countries.” I understand this sentiment when it's applied to shithole countries where statistics cannot be verified in meaningful ways. But China is too big and too integrated into the world economics to fake or dismiss Chinese dat…

> China is too big and too integrated into the world economics to fake or dismiss Chinese data

Chinese statistics are notoriously biased. There is a cottage industry of hedge funds using satellite imagery to correct their figures and trade on it.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#134

Post by oa335 »

edgyquant wrote: post #110
jacooper wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is the U.S. never cared about Democratic countries, and often destroyed them(CIA backed coups and so on.

This isn’t true, they always preferred them. They did a number of misguided things in the name of containing communism but all of that was 1. over fifty years ago or more at this point 2. Unpopular with the public so it doesn’t seem like a good faith stance to pretend that’s current Us doctrine. It’s an ignorant whataboutism used by defenders of brutal regimes.

Is it possible that the US continues to interfere in foreign elections but we don’t know about it because we are subject to propaganda? 50 years ago, do you think the US populace was aware of their governments complicity in overthrowing democratically elected governments? Or did they only come to light 20-30 years later?

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#135

Post by ETHisso2017 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #133
reisse wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m tired of it too, but I think it’s better than “not use any data points” or “trust the super subjective data points put out by a totalitarian regime so they aren’t comparable to other countries.” I understand this sentiment when it's applied to shithole countries where statistics cannot be verified in meaningful ways. But China is too big and too integrated into the world economics to fake or dismiss Chinese dat…

> China is too big and too integrated into the world economics to fake or dismiss Chinese data Chinese statistics are notoriously biased. There is a cottage industry of hedge funds using satellite imagery to correct their figures and trade on it.

Can you name some of these hedge funds?

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#136

Post by worrycue »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #8
Jupe wrote: post #3

> This will take time. Decoupling is not an instantaneous process. China spent two decades becoming the workshop of the world; the rest of the developing world isn’t going to mirror that accomplishment in one or two years. It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This reminds me of my day-to-day work so much; especially w.r.…

> It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This is already happening with more than ~80% of products that are "Made in Vietnam" and at least ~40% of products that are "Made in Korea." Not only do the raw materials come from China, but most of the work is done in China. The product is shipped overland from a Chinese factory t…

> This is already happening with more than ~80% of products that are "Made in Vietnam" and at least ~40% of products that are "Made in Korea."

I wonder how long they are willing to do that. Those countries aren’t on the best terms with China either. Doubt they want a dependency on China if they can help it.

Wouldn’t they want to take over the manufacturing (along with it the profit) too instead of just re-exporting for a profit? They are in prime position to do so given they are the gateway for China’s goods - and can cut China’s goods out and substitute their own.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#137

Post by woooooo »

jamesaurichs wrote: post #102
dirtyid wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Land sales down 20% YoY is why growth is 4-5% instead of 8% - the effects of 3RL / crushing RE is built into cost of CCP targetting modest growth. Western reporting getting useful idiots to think PRC RE collapse is going to crush PRC growth to 0% is retarded, RE maybe large it's but not even close to plurarlity of economy - many other sectors, increasingly intermediate / high value like auto exports outperforming and…

[flagged]

Bruh, there's room for objective discussion of murky facts and figures without name calling.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#138

Post by fasthands9 »

worrycue wrote: post #136
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This is already happening with more than ~80% of products that are "Made in Vietnam" and at least ~40% of products that are "Made in Korea." Not only do the raw materials come from China, but most of the work is done in China. The product is shipped overland from a Chinese factory t…

> This is already happening with more than ~80% of products that are "Made in Vietnam" and at least ~40% of products that are "Made in Korea." I wonder how long they are willing to do that. Those countries aren’t on the best terms with China either. Doubt they want a dependency on China if they can help it. Wouldn’t they want to take over the manufacturing (along with it the profit) too instead of just re-exporting f…

If they were able to build a toaster (or whatever) profitably than they would have already done it. Doing last stage assembly most likely requires very little capital investment and much less labor.

I feel like that position is similar to being a middleman - in which case its clear the skillset to be the producer is not the same.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#140

Post by JumpCrisscross »

lainga wrote: post #21
sdfghswe wrote: post #12

> Biden’s “friend-shoring” initiatives What's CRAZY to me is why this hasn't always been the case. Who thought it was a good idea to depend on unfriendly countries like China? Right, I know who thought that. Those who also claimed "if we trade with them enough, they'll like us" did. Fuck depending on China, or Russia, for that matter. The West should have all its critical dependencies within it. At most we could get…

It was Bush Senior, Clinton (with PNTR), Bush Junior. The story of why the US thought PNTR was a good move is long, and has to do with the events of 1989. Also... Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao were both very different from who we have today. China was not necessarily friendly, but they thought there was a good chance of them becoming friendly, especially if their market opened up. For several years after Tiananmen, the D…

> China was not necessarily friendly

It also wasn't a dictatorship. China under Xi is stupider, more short-term oriented and weaker than it was when it had internal competition for power.

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