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The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

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Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#11

Post by mmcgaha »

causi wrote: post #4
StevePerkins wrote: post #2

What a truly awful "sign up for my newsletter in order to read my blog post" nag modal. All you have to do is scroll down a bit and then scroll back up, and the modal remains off-screen below the bottom. A determined user can easily get around this wall, while it's JUST annoying enough to make a casual user (such as myself) close the tab after the second paragraph once the modal appears.

All you have to do is scroll down a bit and then scroll back up, and the modal remains off-screen below the bottom. Or just tap "continue reading" to dismiss it like a normal person.

Yeah like the parent post said a determined user.

Seriously though thanks for pointing it out because my eyes skipped right over the continue reading and went right up to the close my tab X.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#12

Post by sdfghswe »

> Biden’s “friend-shoring” initiatives

What's CRAZY to me is why this hasn't always been the case. Who thought it was a good idea to depend on unfriendly countries like China? Right, I know who thought that. Those who also claimed "if we trade with them enough, they'll like us" did.

Fuck depending on China, or Russia, for that matter. The West should have all its critical dependencies within it. At most we could get non-critical niceties from the outside, no more than that.

Change my mind.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#13

Post by Jupe »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #8
Jupe wrote: post #3

> This will take time. Decoupling is not an instantaneous process. China spent two decades becoming the workshop of the world; the rest of the developing world isn’t going to mirror that accomplishment in one or two years. It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This reminds me of my day-to-day work so much; especially w.r.…

> It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This is already happening with more than ~80% of products that are "Made in Vietnam" and at least ~40% of products that are "Made in Korea." Not only do the raw materials come from China, but most of the work is done in China. The product is shipped overland from a Chinese factory t…

Agreed. I'm no macro-economist; I was trying to relate the dependency tree aspect back to my are of work.

But, you appear correct, the decoupling does appear to be an illusion.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#14

Post by woooooo »

sdfghswe wrote: post #12

> Biden’s “friend-shoring” initiatives What's CRAZY to me is why this hasn't always been the case. Who thought it was a good idea to depend on unfriendly countries like China? Right, I know who thought that. Those who also claimed "if we trade with them enough, they'll like us" did. Fuck depending on China, or Russia, for that matter. The West should have all its critical dependencies within it. At most we could get…

They weren't unfriendly until we decided to make them so about 5 years ago.

Policymakers in the late 90s couldn't necessarily predict swings in American opinion 20 years later.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#15

Post by throwawaymaths »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #8
Jupe wrote: post #3

> This will take time. Decoupling is not an instantaneous process. China spent two decades becoming the workshop of the world; the rest of the developing world isn’t going to mirror that accomplishment in one or two years. It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This reminds me of my day-to-day work so much; especially w.r.…

> It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This is already happening with more than ~80% of products that are "Made in Vietnam" and at least ~40% of products that are "Made in Korea." Not only do the raw materials come from China, but most of the work is done in China. The product is shipped overland from a Chinese factory t…

> When all's said and done, Chinese factories haven't slowed down and Chinese GDP is still rising (by more than American GDP) which tells you that the "decoupling" has to be in some respect illusory.

Can we really know that anymore? China has stopped publishing a majority of economic indicators.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#16

Post by throwawaymaths »

woooooo wrote: post #14
sdfghswe wrote: post #12

> Biden’s “friend-shoring” initiatives What's CRAZY to me is why this hasn't always been the case. Who thought it was a good idea to depend on unfriendly countries like China? Right, I know who thought that. Those who also claimed "if we trade with them enough, they'll like us" did. Fuck depending on China, or Russia, for that matter. The West should have all its critical dependencies within it. At most we could get…

They weren't unfriendly until we decided to make them so about 5 years ago. Policymakers in the late 90s couldn't necessarily predict swings in American opinion 20 years later.

Sure, but it's not like deciding to make china unfriendly wasn't provoked by china. The US was making legitimate attempt at "bringing china into the fold". Since xi jinping came into power, lots of sketchy stuff has happened on their end that made this strategy less tenable.

For example: being invited to rimpac and then sending uninvited ships (2014)

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#17

Post by IKantRead »

frandroid wrote: post #9
StevePerkins wrote: post #2

What a truly awful "sign up for my newsletter in order to read my blog post" nag modal. All you have to do is scroll down a bit and then scroll back up, and the modal remains off-screen below the bottom. A determined user can easily get around this wall, while it's JUST annoying enough to make a casual user (such as myself) close the tab after the second paragraph once the modal appears.

Is this the first time you see a substack page buddy

I don't think you should criticize others just because you've adapted to what is clearly a dark pattern.

I clearly see the "continue reading" now, but I definitely recall the first time I saw this popup not seeing it and closing out of the window because I thought substack was demanding signup.

I have no doubt they've a/b tested the hell out of this UX and patted themselves on the back when first time readers started subscribing at record rates... never bother to ask what this meant for the actual UX.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#18

Post by EGreg »

If there’s one broad consensus in American policymaking circles today, it’s that global supply chains need to become less dependent on China.

I agree, and the other way, in many BRICS and other countries, there is a broad consensus that global economies need to become less dependent on US Dollars.

Both efforts at decentralization and lessening concentration of power are probably going to lead to new good results, as hegemons are forced to compete rather than enjoy a near-monopoly worldwide.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#19

Post by photochemsyn »

I don't really understand the argument the author makes about Mexico exporting cars to the USA while importing car parts from China, in terms of dollar amounts. Wouldn't it be better to ask what material percentage of a car manufactured in Mexico consists of auto parts made in China?

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#20

Post by praptak »

There is one pro-decoupling argument to be made wrt the Chinese-owned factory outside China. This factory while owned by China is not under Chinese jurisdiction. If China pulls a Putin this factory is much harder for them to switch off as part of sanctions.
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