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The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

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Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#61

Post by sdfghswe »

woooooo wrote: post #14
sdfghswe wrote: post #12

> Biden’s “friend-shoring” initiatives What's CRAZY to me is why this hasn't always been the case. Who thought it was a good idea to depend on unfriendly countries like China? Right, I know who thought that. Those who also claimed "if we trade with them enough, they'll like us" did. Fuck depending on China, or Russia, for that matter. The West should have all its critical dependencies within it. At most we could get…

They weren't unfriendly until we decided to make them so about 5 years ago. Policymakers in the late 90s couldn't necessarily predict swings in American opinion 20 years later.

China has been stealing IP and flaunting WTO rules for way longer than 5 years.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#62

Post by woooooo »

jszymborski wrote: post #53
woooooo wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They weren't unfriendly until we decided to make them so about 5 years ago. Policymakers in the late 90s couldn't necessarily predict swings in American opinion 20 years later.

They weren't unfriendly, but they were always brutal oppressive regimes. By trading with them, we became complicit in that. Also, I take issue with the idea that we "made" them unfriendly. I'm pretty sure China and Russia can take responsibility for their own foreign policy.

Wait till you hear about Saudi Arabia.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#63

Post by hangonhn »

sdfghswe wrote: post #12

> Biden’s “friend-shoring” initiatives What's CRAZY to me is why this hasn't always been the case. Who thought it was a good idea to depend on unfriendly countries like China? Right, I know who thought that. Those who also claimed "if we trade with them enough, they'll like us" did. Fuck depending on China, or Russia, for that matter. The West should have all its critical dependencies within it. At most we could get…

When the USSR was around, especially near the end, China was actually a quasi-ally of the US. We sold military hardware to them until the Tiananmen Square massacre. We wanted them as a way to counter balance the USSR. Investing in China and engaging in free trade with them seemed like a reasonable way of changing them from communism to something closer to capitalism. China was willing to reform their economic system but we were much less successful in nudging them towards a democracy.

Furthermore, until 2008 and our financial meltdown, China was a willing student of the US. After 2008, China saw how we allowed our financial systems spiral out of control, they turned away and started looking for their own path.

That said, in thing in general, the world should diversify its supply lines. It's just good policy in general -- be it for political reasons, wars, natural disasters, or pandemics.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#64

Post by davoneus »

bluGill wrote: post #22
Jupe wrote: post #3

> This will take time. Decoupling is not an instantaneous process. China spent two decades becoming the workshop of the world; the rest of the developing world isn’t going to mirror that accomplishment in one or two years. It is all about dependency trees. The US decides to divert imports from China to other countries, which in turn may import from China. This reminds me of my day-to-day work so much; especially w.r.…

GM traces all their dependency trees down to the mines or other sources of raw materials. This is often 6-7 levels deep. However they know what to watch for in the news and so when something happens they can jump to find an alternate, which often gives them 3 months before the production lines stop. They also do this so that they know nobody is using slave labor.

Yeah, I'm not convinced, given GM's (and most automakers) reaction to Covid and the continuing chip shortage.

Maybe things have changed; I'd certainly be glad to hear it. But we all know of Wall Street's long history of hatred towards physical inventory.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#65

Post by madars »

StevePerkins wrote: post #2

What a truly awful "sign up for my newsletter in order to read my blog post" nag modal. All you have to do is scroll down a bit and then scroll back up, and the modal remains off-screen below the bottom. A determined user can easily get around this wall, while it's JUST annoying enough to make a casual user (such as myself) close the tab after the second paragraph once the modal appears.

No such modal with uBlock Origin and default blocklists :) (Pro-tip: if you use Android, Firefox Mobile also supports uBlock Origin) You can even import anti-paywall filter lists like:

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/liamengland1/miscfilters/m... https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-clean-filter...

Can't imagine browsing web with all the crapware, adds, nags, and trackers.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#66

Post by AnimalMuppet »

reisse wrote: post #24
throwawaymaths wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When all's said and done, Chinese factories haven't slowed down and Chinese GDP is still rising (by more than American GDP) which tells you that the "decoupling" has to be in some respect illusory. Can we really know that anymore? China has stopped publishing a majority of economic indicators.

If you don't believe Chinese statistics, you can check that US import from China is back to pre-COVID volumes and rising. Honestly, I'm tired of this "oh they're totalitarian, so we cannot believe their statistics when it's good" stance. It looks so much like a comfortable self-deceit.

> US import from China is back to pre-COVID volumes and rising.

Source?

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#67

Post by reisse »

prepend wrote: post #38
reisse wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't believe Chinese statistics, you can check that US import from China is back to pre-COVID volumes and rising. Honestly, I'm tired of this "oh they're totalitarian, so we cannot believe their statistics when it's good" stance. It looks so much like a comfortable self-deceit.

> Honestly, I'm tired of this "oh they're totalitarian, so we cannot believe their statistics when it's good" stance. It looks so much like a comfortable self-deceit. I’m tired of it too, but I think it’s better than “not use any data points” or “trust the super subjective data points put out by a totalitarian regime so they aren’t comparable to other countries.” I don’t think the US is perfect, but economic indicato…

> I’m tired of it too, but I think it’s better than “not use any data points” or “trust the super subjective data points put out by a totalitarian regime so they aren’t comparable to other countries.”

I understand this sentiment when it's applied to shithole countries where statistics cannot be verified in meaningful ways. But China is too big and too integrated into the world economics to fake or dismiss Chinese data. You can independently prove a lot of Chinese data by comparing it with their western trade counterparts.

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#68

Post by reisse »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #66
reisse wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't believe Chinese statistics, you can check that US import from China is back to pre-COVID volumes and rising. Honestly, I'm tired of this "oh they're totalitarian, so we cannot believe their statistics when it's good" stance. It looks so much like a comfortable self-deceit.

> US import from China is back to pre-COVID volumes and rising. Source?

Here you go, hope US government is reliable enough for you

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#69

Post by sdfghswe »

woooooo wrote: post #62
jszymborski wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They weren't unfriendly, but they were always brutal oppressive regimes. By trading with them, we became complicit in that. Also, I take issue with the idea that we "made" them unfriendly. I'm pretty sure China and Russia can take responsibility for their own foreign policy.

Wait till you hear about Saudi Arabia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Re: The global trading system is starting to rearrange itself

#70

Post by tptacek »

diego_moita wrote: post #26

Funny how things change. In the 90s the U.S., EU and Japan were the champions of free trade for industrial products and services. However, when it would come to agricultural goods they were the champions of tariffs and protectionism. Why? Easy: because 3rd world countries were very competitive on agriculture. Egypt had better cotton, Argentina had beef, Brazil had orange juice, Cuba had sugar, etc, etc. 3rd world cou…

"Decoupling" refers specifically to economic disengagement with China, not Asia in general or the developing world.
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